Election 2015: pure political theatre

Minutes before the election coverage began on Thursday night I re-read the election night blog I wrote in 2010.

Sample entries included:

22:00 – BBC exit poll predicting hung parliament - Conservatives 307 seats, Labour 255, Lib Dem 59, Others 29.

23:10 – Exit poll revised slightly: Con 305, Lab 255, Lib Dem 61, Others 29. Tories 21 short of a majority.

23:17 – I'm bored already! Is it just me?

23:50 – Listening to David Milliband, Peter Mandelson etc it's clear that Labour will do everything they can to hang on to power, with the help of the Lib Dems.

01:23 – Clear swing from Labour to Conservative throughout the country but substantial variations between and within different regions. Election could go to the wire.

02:28 – Is anyone having a good evening? The Tories are going to be the biggest single party but anything less than a majority will be viewed as a failure. Oddly enough, Labour must be feeling quite positive as things stand.

02:01 – This should be exciting but it's not. Why? Do you get the feeling that all three parties are losers in this election?

02:33 – UKIP supporters are very quiet tonight. Where are you?

03:15 – No sign of a "Portillo moment". Some people were hoping it might be Ed Balls but no sign of it at the moment. Disappointing.

02:37 – BBC: 125 seats declared and "no clear picture emerging".

03:05 – David Dimbleby: "No sense of real drama." You're telling me. I'm not sure how much more of this I can take. I set myself the target of 4.00am but not sure if I can be bothered. Time for a cup of strong coffee.

03:32 – Al Murray on the BBC boat: "We need something to happen."

04:12 – The Guardian's Nick Cohen calls it the "strangest election I've ever seen". Private Eye's Ian Hislop puts it a different way. What we are watching, he says, is an extremely "dull process". He's right, but how has this happened? The prospect of a hung parliament (which I don't like) should be a source of excitement. But it's not. What's gone wrong?

04:41 – It's not confirmed but Nick Robinson is reporting that Ed Balls has held his seat.

04:45 – OK, that's it. I'm tired, and bored, and dawn is breaking. Good night.

And that was it. (See Election night blog.)

Compare and contrast with 2015.

Immediate drama as the exit poll revealed a similar but unexpected Conservative lead, disappointing for Labour and disastrous for the Lib Dems.

From then on, with a few hiccups here and there, the night just got better and better.

Instead of going to bed at 4.45, as in 2010, I stayed up until 7.00 when I crawled upstairs to bed and snoozed for an hour before forcing my eyes open to see Ed Balls finally succumb.

Two hours of fitfull dozing were interrupted by the revelation that Nigel Farage had failed to win Thanet South. I felt for the man and suddenly I was awake again.

After that, a series of resignations – Clegg, Miliband and Farage, although I'd hardly call Nigel's statement a resignation. More like, "Hasta la vista, baby. I'll be back."

It was incredible stuff made even more gripping as the Conservatives edged towards a majority and beyond. Remarkably, the exit poll that had shocked everyone the previous night had underestimated the Tories' final margin of victory.

I don't care who you voted for, or if you didn't vote at all. That was pure political theatre. I loved every moment of it.

PS. I haven't even mentioned events in Scotland but, frankly, who cares?!

Cheesed off

Oh dear.

No sooner had I declared my admiration for Liz Truss than this was brought to my attention.

Politicians, they always let you down.

H/T Isi Clarke

Election battleground: my top 40 friends and foes

Thank goodness, the election campaign is almost over.

Over the past few weeks, in a desperate bid to keep myself interested and awake, I gave myself the task of highlighting 20 candidates I'd like to see returned to parliament, and 20 who won't be missed.

A handful, like the DUP's Ian Paisley and Labour's Diane Abbott are in safe seats but I thought I'd include them anyway.

Most of my 'target seats' are marginal or semi-marginal so the results could conceivably have some bearing on the type of parliament we can expect over the next five years.

Then again, we were told the 2010 Tory intake had a strong libertarian streak and look what happened. Their influence was minimal.

Picking my top 20 'friends' hasn't been easy. Confusingly, some candidates who voted against plain packaging in 2015 voted against a relaxation of the smoking ban in 2010 and in favour of a ban on smoking in private vehicles carrying children in 2014 and 2015.

Others supported an amendment to the smoking ban but voted to prohibit smoking in cars with children. They also supported plain packaging.

It suggests the longer MPs are in parliament the less independent and/or rebellious they become. Alternatively career advancement kicks in and they become unwilling to vote against their own government, hence my admiration for upwardly mobile politicians like Robert Halfon and Elizabeth Truss who stay true to their principles.

Anyway, here's my list of target seats and candidates. I created two categories, 'friend' and 'foe' (2010 majorities are in brackets: marginals are below 5%, semi-marginals are below 10%; n/a means they are standing in that seat for the first time):

Friends
Nigel Farage (Ukip, Thanet South, n/a)
Nigel Huddleston (Conservative, Mid Worcestereshire, n/a)
Jackie Doyle-Price (Conservative, Thurrock, 0.2%)
Mark Spencer (Conservative, Sherwood, 0.4%)
Paul Uppal (Conservative, Wolverhampton South West, 1.7%)
Karl McCartney (Conservative, Lincoln, 2.3%)
Richard Fuller (Conservative, Bedford, 3.0%)
Simon Kirby (Conservative, Brighton Kemptown, 3.1%)
Mary MacLeod (Conservative, Brentford & Isleworth, 3.6%)
Nick de Bois (Conservative, Enfield North, 3.8%)
David Nuttall (Conservative, Bury North, 5.0%)
Chris Skidmore (Conservative, Kingswood, 5.1%)
Stephen Mosley (Conservative, City of Chester, 5.5%)
Esther McVey (Conservative, Wirral West, 6.2%)
Robert Halfon (Conservative, Harlow, 11.2%)
Guto Bebb (Conservative, Aberconwy, 11.3%)
Stephen Metcalfe (Conservative, Basildon South & Thurrock East, 12.9%)
Simon Hughes (Lib Dem, Bermondsey, 19.1%)
Douglas Carswell (Ukip, Clacton, 28.0%)
Ian Paisley Jr (DUP, North Antrim, 29.6%)

Foes
Matthew Offord (Conservative, Hendon, 0.2%)
Julie Hilling (Labour, Bolton West, 0.2%)
Lorely Burt (Lib Dem, Solihull, 0.3%)
Anna Soubry (Conservative, Broxtowe, 0.7%)
Chris Williamson (Labour, Derby North, 1.4%)
Ian Austin (Labour, Dudley North, 1.7%)
Caroline Lucas (Green, Brighton Pavilion, 2.4%)
Paul Burstow (Lib Dem, Sutton & Cheam, 3.3%)
Valerie Vaz (Labour, Walsall South, 4.3%)
James Morris (Conservative, Halesowen & Rowley Regis, 4.6%)
Richard Graham (Conservative, Gloucester, 4.8%)
Kris Hopkins (Conservative, Keighley, 6.2%)
Bob Blackman (Conservative, Harrow East, 7.1%)
Sarah Wollaston (Conservative, Totnes, 10.3%)
Jane Ellison (Conservative, Battersea, 12.2%)
Ann McKetchin (Labour, Glasgow North, 13.3%)
Julian Huppert (Lib Dem, cambridge 13.5%)
Luciana Berger (Labour, Liverpool Wavertree, 18.9%)
Stephen Williams (Lib Dem, Bristol West, 20.5%)
Diane Abbott (Labour, Hackney North & Stoke Newington, 31.1%)

As you can see a significant number of friends and foes are Conservatives. That's not because I have a pro or anti-Tory bias. It reflects, I think, the fact that the Conservative party is the one that is most divided when it comes to paternalistic nanny state style policies.

With very few exceptions we know that when it comes to tobacco, food and drink Labour, Lib Dem and SNP politicians support further regulations. Some are well-meaning if misguided; others harbour a simple hatred of big business, Big Tobacco in particular.

Within the Conservative party paternalists rub shoulders with free marketeers and the odd libertarian so it's more complex. I guess my list reflects my disappointment that so many Tories have bought in to lifestyle socialism after decades fighting economic socialism.

Bizarrely, politicians who supported privatisation and deregulation that were designed specifically to give people more choice now back comprehensive smoking bans, display bans and the theft of intellectual property (plain packaging) that infantilise the consumer and will ultimately reduce choice.

Public health is the new socialism and a remarkable number of Conservatives have signed up. That's why I still can't decide whether to vote. Speaking as a lifelong Conservative voter, there is not a single party whose manifesto broadly represents my laissez faire views.

Living in a safe Conservative seat in Cambridgeshire my vote won't change anything and Cameron's support for plain packaging was the straw that broke this camel's back.

If I lived in South Thanet I'd vote for Ukip's Nigel Farage but I can't support the party as a whole because it's still too flakey for me, with far too much emphasis on immigration.

Don't get me wrong. I'll be as relieved as anyone if Ed Miliband is kept out of Downing Street and the SNP are denied any form of power sharing, but if Cameron is returned to Number Ten there will be little to celebrate.

In terms of tobacco control and other product regulations the only difference between the Conservatives and Labour is the speed with which the parties regulate. The Tories take a little longer but the direction of travel is the same.

In short, any enjoyment I get from the 2015 election is largely dependent on the outcome of the 40 seats listed above. Watch this space!

PS. If you're wondering why I didn't include 'friends' such as Philip Davies, Jacob Rees Mogg, Sir Greg Knight, Nigel Evans and several more, it's because they're not defending marginal seats.

Ditto the likes of Elizabeth Truss (South West Norfolk). I thought about including her but she's a dead cert for re-election. I did draft an entry for her, though. It read:

Appointed Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs in 2014, Truss was one of only three ministers to vote against plain packaging of tobacco. Nor was this the first time she has 'rebelled' against her own government since her election to parliament in 2010.

In October 2010 Truss supported an amendment to the smoking ban. She also voted against a ban on smoking in private vehicles carrying children, saying, "I will not be supporting the proposal to ban smoking in cars. It would be extremely difficult to enforce and I think that ensuring your child is not exposed to smoke is the responsibility of parents."

If only there were more ministers like Liz Truss in government. Sadly I don't live in her constituency.

To find most of the incumbent candidates I'd like to see re-elected go to this page on the Forest website, Smokers are voters too, and click on the relevant links.

Diane Abbott, friend or foe?

Between now and the General Election on May 7 I'm highlighting a series of 'target seats', those where the candidate standing for re-election has supported anti-tobacco policies, and those where a leading candidate is an opponent of excessive lifestyle regulations and policies that infantilise us all. With a few exceptions I'm focussing on marginal or semi-marginal seats.

#40 – Hackney North & Stoke Newington
For my final (hooray!) 'target seat' I wanted to finish with a big name. Unfortunately the chances of Labour's Diane Abbott losing her seat are non-existent but one can dream. Last year I sat next to the former shadow public health minister on Andrew Neil's Daily Politics and watched as she jabbed her fingers in my direction and spoke dismissively of "people like him". It's hard to understand the enduring loyalty of Neil's other programme This Week to Abbott but I'm not a TV producer chasing ratings. As for tobacco control, Abbott has boasted, "The last Labour government had a very strong record on tobacco control. We introduced the smoking ban in pubs and enclosed spaces, ended sports sponsorship and billboard advertising, raised the legal age of purchasing cigarettes and put graphic warnings on cigarette packs." In 2010, welcoming the Coalition government's decision to implement Labour's display ban, she spoke condescendingly of the Tories having "finally seen the error of their ways" but expressed concern "that the advances we made in smoking policy may now be coming to a halt". Only cigarette companies, said Abbott, would reverse the ban on smoking in pubs, which demonstrates how out of touch she is with ordinary people. (A recent poll suggested 51% support an amendment to the ban.) Sadly the Labour candidate for Hackney North & Stoke Newington is typical of a certain type of politician. They know what's best for us and will legislate accordingly. Hell, yes.

2010 majority: 14,461 (31.1%)
Estimated number of smokers in Hackney North: 14,288*.
Principal opponent: Liberal Democrat
Friend or foe: Foe
Target rating: Safe

*Based on 20% of the registered electorate in 2010

Note: marginal seats have been defined as those with majorities of 10% or less that require a swing of 5% for the incumbent party to lose.

Simon Hughes, friend or foe?

Between now and the General Election on May 7 I'm highlighting a series of 'target seats', those where the candidate standing for re-election has supported anti-tobacco policies, and those where a leading candidate is an opponent of excessive lifestyle regulations and policies that infantilise us all. With a few exceptions I'm focussing on marginal or semi-marginal seats.

#39 – Bermondsey
Who would have guessed Simon Hughes would be listed as a 'friend' in a list of predominantly vulnerable seats? That shows how desperate my search to find opponents of excessive regulations has become and how far the Lib Dems have sunk in the polls! Deputy Leader of the Liberal Democrats from 2010 to 2014 and a junior minister since 2013, Hughes surprised many observers when he voted against plain packaging, one of only two Lib Dems to do so. (The other was Jeremy Browne who is not standing again.) It was even more remarkable because in 1996 Hughes sponsored a Private Member's Bill to ban cigarette advertising. Three years later, when the Labour government introduced its own legislation, Hughes complained that it hadn't gone far enough. He particularly objected to the delay in banning tobacco sponsorship for F1 and snooker. Well, beggars can't be choosers and Hughes has to be better than the almost certain alternative, another Labour MP happy to tow the party line on further tobacco control.

2010 majority: 8,530 (19.1%)
Estimated number of smokers in Bermondsey: 15,530*
Principal opponents: Labour
Friend or foe: Friend (just)
Target rating: Vulnerable

*Based on 20% of the registered electorate in 2010

Note: marginal seats have been defined as those with majorities of 10% or less that require a swing of 5% for the incumbent party to lose.

Ian Austin, friend or foe?

Between now and the General Election on May 7 I'm highlighting a series of 'target seats', those where the candidate standing for re-election has supported anti-tobacco policies, and those where a leading candidate is an opponent of excessive lifestyle regulations and policies that infantilise us all. With a few exceptions I'm focussing on marginal or semi-marginal seats.

#38 – Dudley North
In terms of tobacco control there are many politicians with a record just as bad and possibly even worse than Ian Austin. Nevertheless he supported the smoking ban (2006), voted for plain packaging (2015) and is defending an extremely marginal seat so he qualifies easily for my list of 'target seats'. He's also prone to comments that leave him open him to ridicule. In July 2013, for example, after ministers postponed legislation on plain packaging, he accused the Government of “taking the advice of big tobacco companies and their wealthy lobbyists more seriously than the views of young people”. According to the Telegraph's Michael Deacon, "Mr Austin had met some young people who had told him plain packaging was the way forward." Well, indeed. Time, perhaps, for Mr Austin to get his coat.

2010 majority: 649 (1.7%)
Estimated number of smokers in Dudley North: 12,158*.
Principal opponents: Conservative
Friend or foe: Foe
Target rating: Vulnerable

*Based on 20% of the registered electorate in 2010

Note: marginal seats have been defined as those with majorities of 10% or less that require a swing of 5% for the incumbent party to lose.

Paul Uppal, friend or foe?

Between now and the General Election on May 7 I'm highlighting a series of 'target seats', those where the candidate standing for re-election has supported anti-tobacco policies, and those where a leading candidate is an opponent of excessive lifestyle regulations and policies that infantilise us all. With a few exceptions I'm focussing on marginal or semi-marginal seats.

#37 – Wolverhampton South West
Really struggling now to find 'friendly' incumbent candidates in marginal seats. I've included Paul Uppal because in 2010 he voted to amend the smoking ban and in March 2015 he voted against plain packaging. Like many of his colleagues however he also voted to ban smoking in private vehicles (carrying children). Nevertheless, as I've said before, it was courageous for a Tory MP to vote against his own government weeks before a general election (especially when he's defending a marginal seat and needs all the resources he can get) so credit to Uppal for sticking to his principles when, frankly, it would have been easier to throw in the towel and support the government or miss the vote.

2010 majority: 691 (1.7%)
Estimated number of smokers in Wolverhampton SW: 11,829*.
Principal opponents: Labour
Friend or foe: Friend
Target rating: Extremely vulnerable

*Based on 20% of the registered electorate in 2010

Note: marginal seats have been defined as those with majorities of 10% or less that require a swing of 5% for the incumbent party to lose.

Kris Hopkins, friend or foe?

Between now and the General Election on May 7 I'm highlighting a series of 'target seats', those where the candidate standing for re-election has supported anti-tobacco policies, and those where a leading candidate is an opponent of excessive lifestyle regulations and policies that infantilise us all. With a few exceptions I'm focussing on marginal or semi-marginal seats.

#36 – Keighley
Another conundrum. Kris Hopkins was one of 74 MPs who voted against regulations to introduce a ban on smoking in cars carrying children. His reason: "I am not in favour of bringing forward changes in the law which, in my view, are unenforceable. I don’t believe it is realistic to properly enforce a ban on smoking in cars." At the same time however Hopkins said he would like to ban smoking “full stop”, adding, “And I say that as a former smoker myself.” No surprise then when the communities minister sided with the Government (and Labour) and voted in favour of plain packaging. According to Hopkins, making standardised cigarette packs compulsory was "the responsible and right thing to do". "There is nothing glamorous or exciting about smoking and the packaging cigarettes are sold in should reflect this reality." If Hopkins thinks current packaging is "glamorous" or "exciting" he ought to get out a bit more. With views like that he won't be missed.

2010 majority: 2,940 (6.2%)
Estimated number of smokers in Keighley: 13,174*.
Principal opponents: Labour
Friend or foe: Foe
Target rating: Vulnerable

*Based on 20% of the registered electorate in 2010

Note: marginal seats have been defined as those with majorities of 10% or less that require a swing of 5% for the incumbent party to lose.