Karl McCartney, friend or foe?

Between now and the General Election on May 7 I'm highlighting a series of 'target seats', those where the candidate standing for re-election has supported anti-tobacco policies, and those where a leading candidate is an opponent of excessive lifestyle regulations and policies that infantilise us all. With a few exceptions I'm focussing on marginal or semi-marginal seats.

#19 - Lincoln
Another Conservative MP first elected in 2010, Karl McCartney supported a relaxation of the smoking ban and voted against plain packaging. Understandably some people want to punish the Conservative party as a whole for being no different to Labour on issues such as this, but why do it at the expense of an independently-minded candidate who has consistently opposed excessive regulations and is likely to continue doing so, if re-elected? Realistically, if McCartney doesn't win Lincoln the seat will fall to Labour and the question smokers have to ask themselves is this: not forgetting the tobacco levy that's a feature of the party's 2015 manifesto, will a Labour MP be more or less likely than the incumbent to support further tobacco control policies?

2010 majority: 1,058 (2.3%)
Estimated number of smokers in Lincoln: 14,701*
Principal opponent: Labour
Friend or foe: Friend
Target rating: Vulnerable

*Based on 20% of the registered electorate in 2010

Note: marginal seats have been defined as those with majorities of 10% or less that require a swing of 5% for the incumbent party to lose.