Douglas Carswell, friend or foe?
Monday, April 27, 2015 at 10:00 
Between now and the General Election on May 7 I'm highlighting a series of 'target seats', those where the candidate standing for re-election has supported anti-tobacco policies, and those where a leading candidate is an opponent of excessive lifestyle regulations and policies that infantilise us all. With a few exceptions I'm focussing on marginal or semi-marginal seats.
#21 - Clacton
By common consent Mark Reckless (Rochester & Strood) is at greater risk of defeat than fellow Conservative defector turned Ukip MP Douglas Carswell. In 2010, representing the Conservatives, Carswell attracted 53% of the vote in Clacton and a majority of 28%. In the 2014 by-election, following his defection, he won 59.7% of the vote and a majority of 35.1%, albeit on a smaller turnout. How many former Tory voters will return to the fold is anyone's guess but Carswell deserves support because of his opposition to the smoking ban (he voted for an amendment) and plain packaging (he voted against). In February 2014 he also voted against a ban on smoking in private vehicles (when children are present). In contrast, Reckless only voted against the latter after he defected to Ukip. He didn't vote for David Nuttall's Bill to amend the smoking ban either. If Carswell is re-elected, and Nigel Farage fails to win Thanet South, he could throw his hat in the ring to be leader of the party. Whether he would stick his neck out for smokers like Farage remains to be seen. It's probably safe to say though that ideologically Carswell will continue to support less government intrusion on our lives and for that reason alone he would get my vote if I lived in Clacton.
2014 (by-election) majority: 12,404 (35.1%)
Estimated number of smokers in Clacton: 13,858*
Principal opponent: Conservative
Friend or foe: Friend
Target rating: Should be safe
*Based on 20% of the registered electorate in 2014
Note: marginal seats have been defined as those with majorities of 10% or less that require a swing of 5% for the incumbent party to lose.
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