Guto Bebb, friend or foe?
Wednesday, April 29, 2015 at 10:00 
Between now and the General Election on May 7 I'm highlighting a series of 'target seats', those where the candidate standing for re-election has supported anti-tobacco policies, and those where a leading candidate is an opponent of excessive lifestyle regulations and policies that infantilise us all. With a few exceptions I'm focussing on marginal or semi-marginal seats.
#25 - Aberconwy
A safe-ish Conservative seat is looking extremely vulnerable following the publication, two weeks ago, of an email exchange between the incumbent candidate, Guto Bebb, and local party chairman Garry Burchett (Aberconwy Tory hopeful loses chairman's backing). This is not the first time Bebb has been embroiled in controversy. Nevertheless he has consistently voted against excessive regulations, and there aren't many MPs like that. Elected in 2010 he supported an amendment to the smoking ban, voted against a ban on smoking in private vehicles (with children), and opposed plain packaging. His challengers are evenly split but he's vulnerable to a collapse in the Lib Dem vote.
2010 majority: 3,398 (11.3%)
Estimated number of smokers in Aberconwy: 8,918*
Principal opponent: Labour, Lib Dem, Plaid Cymru
Friend or foe: Friend
Target rating: Vulnerable
*Based on 20% of the registered electorate in 2010
Note: marginal seats have been defined as those with majorities of 10% or less that require a swing of 5% for the incumbent party to lose.
Reader Comments (2)
It is not the case that the opposition is split here in Aberconwy. This is a two-horse race, a straight fight between Labour and Conservatives. We have a particularly strong Labour candidate in Mary Wimbury who has just been endoirsed by the VoteSmart site:
http://www.votesmart.org.uk/#66085
The Lib Dem vote has collapsed outside their heartlands and in Aberconwy their 2010 candidate has joined Labour.
Plaid Cymru came 4th in 2010 after spending more than anyone.
As a result Aberconwy is NOT a target for Plaid in 2015.
Labour will run Guto Bebb close.