Election epilogue

Quick update on my previous post, written ahead of the Election on Thursday.

But first, here’s a comment posted by Eamonn Butler, co-founder of the Adam Smith Institute, on Facebook:

Biggest Con-Lab swing since 1945; second lowest turnout (59.9%) since 1918; 3m fewer votes than Corbyn; lowest winning vote share (33.8%) since 1945; Tories + Reform on 48%; 40.3% of seats won on <40% vote share; PM’s own majority down 11,195; pro-Gaza MPs now 6th-largest Parliamentary group. Funny old world.

Funny old world, indeed.

But before moving on (and we must move on) I just wanted to tie up a few loose ends because on Thursday, before the results were known, I named a number Conservatives I wanted to see returned to Parliament, and several I hoped would be cast out, never to be heard of again.

This was based on how they voted after the second reading of the Tobacco and Vapes Bill in April. It’s a niche issue, and I know there are more important matters, but (for me) voting for or against the generational tobacco ban indicates the type of politician you are - paternalistic/authoritarian or free market/socially liberal – and the type of society you want to live in.

In that context I can reveal that the results were, to say the least, mixed.

The good news is that the following (who all voted against the Tobacco and Vapes Bill) won their seats:

Kemi Badenoch, North West Essex
Suella Braverman, Fareham
Alex Burghart, Brentwood and Ongar
Sir Christopher Chope, Christchurch
Mark Francois, Rayleigh and Wickford
Richard Fuller, North Bedfordshire
Andrew Griffith, Arundel and South Downs
Robert Jenrick, Newark
Sir Edward Leigh, Gainsborough
Julia Lopez, Hornchurch and Upminster
Andrew Rosindell, Romford
Sir Alec Shelbrooke, Wetherby and Easingwold
Greg Smith, Mid Buckinghamshire
Sir Desmond Swayne, New Forest West

The bad news is we lost a considerable number of potential allies, notably Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg, Sir Philip Davies, Steve Baker, Sir Jake Berry, Sir Simon Clarke, Giles Watling, and Liz Truss.

Other Conservatives who voted against the Tobacco and Vapes Bill and lost their seats were:

Sarah Atherton, Wrexham
Shaun Bailey, Tipton and Wednesbury
Simon Baynes, North Shropshire
Paul Bristow Peterborough
Rehman Chishti, Gillingham and Rainham
Brendan Clarke-Smith, Bassetlaw
Sarah Dines, Derbyshire Dales
Dame Jackie Doyle-Price, Thurrock
Nick Fletcher, Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme
Chris Green, Bolton West
Jonathan Gullis, Stoke-on-Trent North
Darren Henry, Broxtowe
Adam Holloway, Gravesham
Tom Hunt, Ipswich
Andrew Lewer, Northampton South
Marco Longhi, Dudley
Rachel Maclean, Redditch
Anthony Mangnall, South Devon
Karl McCartney, Lincoln
Anne Marie Morris, Newton Abbot
Tom Randall, Gedling
Laurence Robertson, Tewkesbury
Lee Rowley, North East Derbyshire
Gary Sambrook, Birmingham Northfield
Alexander Stafford, Rother Valley
Jane Stevenson, Wolverhampton North East
John Stevenson, Carlisle

Add to that the eleven Tory MPs who voted against the Bill but stood down before the election, and you can see the problem we face in the new Parliament.

(By my calculation, 34 of the 57 Conservatives who voted against the Bill have either stood down or lost their seats. On Thursday night we even lost the DUP's Ian Paisley who has consistently opposed anti-tobacco legislation.)

There was mixed news too concerning two Conservative members of the APPG on Smoking and Health, which is run by ASH and has been chaired - indeed driven - in recent years by Bob Blackman, the Conservative MP for Harrow East.

Defending a majority of 8,170, Blackman was widely expected to lose his seat. Instead he won with 53.3 per of the vote and an increased majority which, to be fair, was quite an achievement.

In the circumstances it was small consolation that fellow Tory Maggie Throup (Erewash), another member of the APPG on Smoking and Health, lost her seat because I suspect she will be easier to replace than Blackman would have been.

The latter, after all, has made the eradication of smoking a personal crusade, more so than any other Tory MP, and will no doubt continue to do so.

Another disappointing result was in Epsom and Ewell where Mhairi Fraser, a new Tory candidate who I praised as an opponent of the nanny state, came second to the Liberal Democrats.

Likewise, Alex Deane - another opponent of the nanny state who was fighting a seat for the first time - failed to win Finchley and Golders Green, coming second to Labour in what had been a Conservative-held seat for decades.

It's not all doom and gloom, though. The front runners to succeed Rishi Sunak as leader of the Conservative Party include three former ministers who voted against the Tobacco and Vapes Bill: Kemi Badenoch, Suella Braverman, and Robert Jenrick.

It won't stop Labour passing the legislation required to phase out the sale of tobacco, but if one of them were to win the leadership election it will at least offer hope that the Tories aren't going to blindly follow Labour down the path of excessive regulation.

As for Reform, I would imagine the party’s MPs will take their cue from Nigel Farage and if Farage chooses to he and his fellow Reform MPs (five in total) could make quite a lot of noise about the generational ban. But will they?

As I say, neither the Tories nor Reform can stop the new Labour government introducing and passing its own tobacco bill, but opposing it would at least put the nanny state back on the political agenda.

Finally, have you noticed how people on the centre right, whether they be politicians or members of the general public, have accepted the result of the election without taking to the streets in protest?

(If there are complaints they are directed at the Conservative government for being so useless and the Conservative Party for running one of the worst election campaigns in history.)

That’s how democracy works, folks. If you don’t like the result of an election, or (God forbid) a referendum, and wish to challenge or overturn it undemocratically or by force, go and live somewhere where democracy is neither respected nor recognised, and see how you like it there.

In the meantime, and despite the ‘unfairness’ of the first past the post system, let's be thankful that the next few days and weeks won’t be dominated by parties going back and forth doing back room deals trying to conjure up some sort of coalition or working majority.

It’s a funny old world but in the context of a UK general election proportional representation would be no laughing matter.

Update: Tory MP who increased majority to run as Chairman of 1922 Committee (Telegraph)

Election special

‘This Thursday I shall do something I haven’t done on election night in half a century. I shall switch off my TV, radio and phone and go to bed.’

Like Matthew Parris, writing in The Times yesterday, I won’t be staying up tonight.

Watching the party I have always voted for in general elections reduced to fewer than 150 MPs won’t be a pleasant experience, but they’ve brought it upon themselves so there will be very little sympathy from me.

Furthermore, while I am (very) apprehensive about a Labour government, there are a significant number of Conservatives I won’t be sorry to see the back of.

Naturally they include most of the MPs who voted in favour of the Tobacco and Vapes Bill in April, but it’s a such long list I won’t name them all here.

Instead, here are some of the Tories I definitely won’t miss should they lose their seats. It’s a bit random but they all voted for the generational ban so good riddance to them should that happen.

Bob Blackman, Harrow East
Majority: 8,170

Chairman of the All Party Parliamentary Group on Smoking and Health, which is run by ASH, Bob Blackman appears to have made it his mission to eradicate smoking regardless of what I mistakenly thought were traditional Conservative values. Sadly, freedom of choice and personal responsibility appear to be anathema to him, just as they are for many Tory MPs for whom state sponsored paternalism has become deeply embedded in their political psyche. Worse, they have allied themselves to the tobacco control industry whose agenda is arguably driven as much by a hatred of a legal industry as it is by a concern for public health. Defending a majority of 8,170 makes Blackman extremely vulnerable so fingers crossed!

Maggie Throup, Erewash
Majority: 10,606

Maggie Throup is another member of the APPG on Smoking and Health whose seat in Parliament looks vulnerable. Like Blackman ASH are unlikely to miss her because I’m sure there will be plenty of MPs only too happy to fill her shoes, but were she to lose it would at least allow us a wry smile. Prediction: gone and quickly forgotten.

Tom Tugendhat, Tonbridge, Edenbridge, and North Downs Villages
Majority: n/a

Tugenhart's previous seat in Tunbridge and Malling, where he had a majority of 26,941, has been abolished and he is now the Conservative candidate for the new seat of Tonbridge, Edenbridge, and North Downs Villages. My concern is that, if elected, he will almost certainly throw his hat into the ring to become the new leader of the Conservative Party. If that's the direction the Tories want to go, good luck to them, but electing an advocate of creeping prohibition and the nanny state would hardly be a good look if the Tories are to challenge the new Labour government. Who needs more of the same?

Grant Shapps, Welwyn Hatfield
Majority: 10,955

Shapps is another who may fancy his chances in a leadership battle. Whether he gets the chance to stand is another matter, though. In 2019 he won Welwyn Hatfield with a majority of almost 11,000 but that must be looking a little fragile now. Victory for Labour in Welwyn Hatfield won't help us, of course, but it would be good to remove from the battlefield another potential Tory leader who seems to favour the nanny state over personal liberty.

Oliver Dowden, Hertsmere
Majority: 21,313

Yet another Tory minister who voted for the Tobacco and Vapes Bill and could also have eyes on the leadership prize. In a perfect world, any Tory who supports a generational ban on purchasing tobacco should be prohibited from standing, but the reality is that only one member of the Cabinet (Kemi Badenoch) opposed it at the second reading, which tells you a lot about the current Conservative Party. Dowden may have a better chance of hanging on to his seat but I wouldn’t be sorry if he was one of several 'Portillo' moments tonight. Then again, he's so anonymous most people probably won’t notice.

Richard Holden, Basildon and Billericay
Majority: 20,412

This is a strange one because Richard Holden is (or was) a smoker. We know this because in 2021 he was fined £100 for dropping a cigarette. Sadly, like many politicians who are smokers (David Cameron comes to mind), he appears happy to support anti-smoking measures that target fellow smokers or, in this case, future generations of adults who might also wish to smoke. The former MP for Durham North West recently abandoned his seat in the North East (majority 1,144) in favour of being parachuted in to Basildon and Billericay where the Tories are defending a majority of 20,412. A pattern of behaviour is emerging …

Rishi Sunak, Richmond, North Yorkshire
Majority: 27,210

I’ve nothing against Rishi personally. He seems a nice guy with a lovely family but he’s a hopeless politician, a vacuous political vessel, and if he loses his seat it’s on him and no-one else. He knifed Boris when the Tories were six points behind Labour in the polls and it’s been downhill ever since.

The announcement of a progressive tobacco sales ban - mimicking a Labour government in New Zealand - was a low point for me and many others, and including it in the Conservative manifesto – knowing how divisive the policy is among Tory MPs – was the final straw.

It’s rare if not unprecedented for a prime minister to lose their seat in a general election, and it would take a political earthquake to squander a majority of 27,210 in one of the safest Tory seats in the county. Nevertheless it would be an historic moment and richly deserved.

Sorry, Rishi, but you blew it with me and many other Conservative voters when you announced a generational tobacco ban and you will not be missed.

On a more positive note, here are five Conservative candidates I do want to see returned to Parliament. Several are vulnerable however so watch this space:

Kemi Badenoch, North West Essex
Majority: n/a

Kemi Badenoch won her previous constituency, Saffron Walden, with a majority of 27,594 in 2019. The seat has now been abolished and she is fighting a new seat, North West Essex, which some say makes her more likely to be defeated.

Badenoch was the only Cabinet minister to vote against the Tobacco and Vapes Bill at the second reading in April and, while I appreciate that it’s a niche issue for many people, I cannot stress how important it is that someone with her principles and values is returned to Parliament because there won’t be many of them in the new Parliament.

If she is returned she needs to stand for the leadership of the Conservative Party and, if she wins that election (a big ‘if’), her principles must be supported by those she leads. The alternative, looking at her likely rivals, is grim. But first, she has to win her seat. C’mon, Kemi!

Sir Philip Davies, Shipley
Majority: 6,242

Philip (now Sir Philip) Davies has been a friend of Forest for more than 15 years, sponsoring receptions at the House of Commons and speaking at several other events. And that’s despite the fact that he dislikes smoking and is not shy about saying so. He is however a man of principle, which is rare among politicians, and he is a firm believer in freedom of choice and personal responsibility.

Sadly, recent comments suggest he has written off his chances of re-election. He is even reported to have bet £8,000 on losing his seat which he has held since 2005 with an initial majority of 422. Whatever he does next (more GB News, a consultant to the betting industry, perhaps), I wish him well. He will be a significant loss to those of us who want a smaller, less regulated state.

Sir John Hayes, South Holland and The Deepings
Majority: 30,838

First elected to parliament in 1997 with a majority of 7,991 (49.3% of the vote), the chairman of the Common Sense Group of MPs is now defending a majority of 30,838 (75.9% of the vote in 2019), making it the safest Conservative seat in the last Parliament. If this article in UnHerd is to be believed (The last bastion of Tory Britain), Hayes is a 'secure Tory' who 'campaigns like a lover'. More important, he has generally voted against nanny state measures which makes him an increasingly rare breed.

See also: Lookout, it's John Hayes!

Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg, North East Somerset and Hanham
Majority: n/a

Technically, this is a new seat, replacing North East Somerset that Jacob Rees-Mogg won with a majority of 14,729 in 2019. It's easy to mock the Conservative candidate for North East Somerset and Hanham and, for what it's worth, I don't see him as a future leader of the party or anything like that. Nevertheless I do want to see him returned to Parliament because we desperately need MPs with the principles and values he has stuck to throughout his time in office and on the backbenches.

Also, and this is a minor but important issue, I have rarely known any MP to be so good at responding to correspondence even if it's to decline an invitation to some event. To put this in perspective, and speaking from personal experience alone, the vast majority of MPs rarely reply to letters, emails or invitations from non-constituents. Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg (or his secretary) invariably does.

This isn't rocket science. The most basic requirement of an MP must be to run an efficient, functioning office. It shouldn't be beyond most of them but it clearly is. If MPs can't run their offices properly how can we have confidence in them to run a government department, should that opportunity arise? A bit niche, perhaps, but if I lived in North Somerset Sir Jacob would get my vote on the efficiency of his office alone!

Giles Watling, Clacton
Majority: 24,702

I’m biased because Giles Watling did Forest a huge favour when he stood in at the last moment to sponsor our reception at the House of Commons in February. But apart from that, he struck me as very decent, with a good sense of humour, and no airs and graces.

The elephant in the room (or should I say Clacton) is Nigel Farage. A few weeks ago part of me would have liked to see Farage elected (for the entertainment value if nothing else) but, as I suggested recently, I suspect the novelty (for him and for us) will wear off very quickly, especially if he is one of only two or three Reform MPs.

Moreover, having toyed with voting for my local Reform candidate, I was convinced not to by an article by another Rees-Mogg – Annunziata Rees-Mogg, a former Brexit Party MEP. Annunziata's warning about a top down party intolerant of any internal dissent rings true, I'm afraid, and Farage's threat to take over the Conservative Party strikes me as unbelievably arrogant.

The expectation is that Watling will lose to Farage but he strikes me as a good man and a hard-working constituency MP so I’m rooting for him to defeat the odds and win. If that denies us the sound and fury of Farage denouncing the generational tobacco ban in Parliament, so be it.

It’s worth noting though that over the past few months Farage (and Reform) have had remarkably little to say about the policy, and that speaks volumes too.

In addition to the above I’ll be keeping an eye on the fate of all the other Conservative candidates who voted against the Tobacco and Vapes Bill in April.

It will be an almost impossible task to stop the ban when Labour introduces their own legislation in the new parliament, but if there is to be any opposition it's essential that the following (who all voted against the Bill at second reading) are returned:

2019 majorities in brackets

Sarah Atherton, Wrexham (2,131)
Shaun Bailey, West Bromwich West (constituency abolished, now standing in Tipton & Wednesbury)
Steve Baker, Wycombe (4,214)
Simon Baynes, Clwyd South (1,239), now North Shropshire
Sir Jake Berry, Rossendale and Darwen (9,522)
Suella Braverman, Fareham (26,086)
Paul Bristow, Peterborough (2,580)
Alex Burghart, Brentwood and Ongar (29,065)
Rehman Chishti, Gillingham and Rainham (15,119)
Sir Christopher Chope, Christchurch (24,617)
Sir Simon Clarke, Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland (11,626)
Brendan Clarke-Smith, Bassetlaw (14,013)
Sarah Dines, Derbyshire Dales (17,381)
Dame Jackie Doyle-Price, Thurrock (11,482)
Nick Fletcher, Don Valley (constituency abolished, now standing in Doncaster East)
Mark Francois, Rayleigh and Wickford (31,000)
Richard Fuller, North East Bedfordshire (24,283), now North Bedfordshire
Chris Green, Bolton West (8,855)
Andrew Griffith, Arundel and South Downs (22,521)
Jonathan Gullis, Stoke-on-Trent North (6,286)
Darren Henry, Broxtowe (5,331)
Adam Holloway, Gravesham (15,581)
Tom Hunt, Ipswich (5,479)
Robert Jenrick, Newark (21,816)
Sir Edward Leigh, Gainsborough (22,967)
Andrew Lewer, Northampton South (4,697)
Marco Longhi, Dudley North (11,533)
Julia Lopez, Hornchurch and Upminster (23,308)
Rachel Maclean, Redditch (16,036)
Anthony Mangnall, Totnes (12,724), now standing in South Devon
Karl McCartney, Lincoln (3,514)
Anne Marie Morris, Newton Abbot (17,501)
Tom Randall, Gedling (679)
Laurence Robertson, Tewkesbury (22,410)
Andrew Rosindell, Romford (17,893)
Lee Rowley, North East Derbyshire (12,876)
Gary Sambrook, Birmingham Northfield (1,640)
Sir Alec Shelbrooke, Elmet and Rothwell (17,353), constituency abolished, now standing in Wetherby & Easingwold
Greg Smith, Buckingham (20,411), now Mid Buckinghamshire
Alexander Stafford, Rother Valley (6,318)
Jane Stevenson, Wolverhampton North East (4,080)
John Stevenson, Carlisle (8,319)
Sir Desmond Swayne, New Forest West (24,403)
Elizabeth Truss, South West Norfolk (26,195)

My guess is that any Conservative candidate whose majority in 2019 was less than 10,000 will struggle to hold their seat, but even candidates sitting on much larger majorities will be nervous, especially high profile candidates targeted for tactical voting.

Sadly, we have already lost a number of Conservative MPs who voted against the Tobacco and Vapes Bill, with the following all choosing not to stand for re-election:

Adam Afriyie, Windsor
Richard Bacon, South Norfolk
Sir Graham Brady, Altrincham and Sale West
Dehenna Davison, Bishop Auckland
Jonathan Djanogly, Huntingdon
Sir James Duddridge, Rochford and Southend East
Mark Eastwood, Dewsbury
George Eustice, Camborne and Redruth
Paul Holmes, Eastleigh
Eddie Hughes, Walsall North (constituency abolished)
Sir Greg Knight, East Yorkshire

As for the new generation of Tory candidates, it's a sign of my age (probably), but I recognise very few and how many are genuinely liberal on a lifestyle issue like smoking must be open to doubt.

If elected, most will probably take their cue from the next leader of the party, hence the importance of whoever succeeds Sunak.

That said, two 'new' candidates do stand out as potential allies. The first is Mhairi Fraser (Epsom and Ewell) who spoke at the launch of Popular Conservatism in February when I wrote:

"The state is no Mary Poppins," [she said] adding, "It's time to put nanny to bed".

Rishi Sunak's generational tobacco ban was one of the policies she criticised, and her comments drew warm applause which surprised me a bit because Conservative audiences can be capricious when it comes to smoking.

Another small state Tory who would make an excellent member of parliament is Alex Deane, a former director of Big Brother Watch and a familiar face to viewers of Sky News, GB News and Talk TV.

Alex is the Conservative candidate for Finchley and Golders Green where the Tory majority in 2019 was 6,562, which probably makes it a marginal (at best) in 2024.

Courageously he is attempting to win the seat previously held by Mike Freer who stood down after his office was targeted for an arson attack on Christmas Eve.

Frankly, that rather puts the Tobacco and Vapes Bill into perspective, but I nevertheless hope that Alex and other candidates who have previously opposed nanny state policies will, if elected, stick with their convictions rather than taking the path of least resistance (a familiar Tory failing).

Anyway, I'll let you know how many of the candidates I’m rooting for win their seats. Fingers crossed, it will be more than single figures!

The joy of canvassing

‘Canvassing all morning and afternoon. Our vote is holding up.’

So writes a Conservative candidate of my acquaintance.

I wish him well but, in my experience, canvassing - which includes knocking on doors and asking people how they intend to vote - is an extremely inaccurate reflection of voters’ intentions.

For example, during the 1983 General Election I went canvassing on behalf of someone who was standing as the Conservative candidate in Ealing Southall.

Come election day he was convinced, based on canvassing returns, that he was level pegging with his Labour rival who had won the seat in 1979 with a majority of 10,000.

Taking into account the national polls, which predicted a Tory landslide, he was convinced he had every chance of winning.

In my experience however most people who bother to answer the door when canvassers appear are generally polite and many won’t declare their voting intention if they plan to vote for another party.

Often, those who say they will vote for your candidate do so not because they are going to but because they don’t want to get into a debate on their doorstep, and it’s the quickest way of getting rid of you (in the nicest possible way) without being rude (ie declaring for another candidate).

Either way, canvassing returns often provide candidates with an unreasonable expectation of success and should be treated with extreme caution.

As it happens, Ealing Southall was an unusual constituency (at that time) because there was a large Asian community and the sitting Labour MP was understood to spend his summer holidays in India, a move that proved popular with many of his constituents.

Anyway, the eventual outcome was a massive disappointment for my Tory friend because Labour doubled their majority in what was one of the very few seats in England where the vote swung from Conservative to Labour rather than the other way round.

Today, if a Conservative candidate tells you, based on canvassing, that “Our vote is holding up”, I would nod sagely but say nothing. Let them dream.

That said (and I may be wrong), I believe there may be a higher than expected turnout of ‘shy Tories’ who - appalled though they are by the state of the Conservative Party and Rishi Sunak’s government - are nevertheless (like me) reluctant to vote for anyone else.

Labour will still win by a landslide but my guess is that the Tory vote will hold up better than expected.

The problem is, a great many seats will be lost to Labour (and some to the Lib Dems) because of people voting for Reform who will split the Tory vote without winning more than a handful of seats themselves.

Of course, even with ‘shy Tories’ going to the polls, Thursday night is going to be brutal. And let’s be clear.

The responsibility for the unfolding disaster lies almost entirely with the parliamentary Conservative Party and Rishi Sunak’s insipid government, so reap what you sow and all that.

‘Safe’ Tory seat of Huntingdon predicted to go red

According to an election predictor app on the Telegraph website, the Conservatives are set to lose Huntingdon, the constituency in which I live, to Labour.

To be fair, there have been boundary changes so this is technically a new constituency, but for decades Huntingdon was one of the safest Tory seats in the country.

To lose a seat previously held by John Major (who even in 1997 had a majority of 18,140) and, more recently, Jonathan Djanogly (whose 2019 majority was 19,383), would be remarkable.

As it happens the new Conservative candidate, Ben Obese-Jecty, seems a decent guy well suited to Parliament.

A former British army officer, a veteran of Iraq and Afghanistan, he’s also worked in the private sector and is a former Conservative association chairman, which suggests a commitment to the party noticeably lacking in some former MPs.

Meanwhile his Labour opponent looks young enough to be his daughter. OK, that’s an exaggeration (and probably ageist!) but I think it highlights a problem we’re going to have in the new Parliament.

There are going to be hundreds of MPs who, I suspect, never expected to win their seats when they were selected as candidates.

A few (including the Labour PPC for Huntingdon) may rise to the challenge of their new job, but many more are going to be hopelessly out of their depth, and the repercussions for Parliament, local constituencies, and the country at large could be enormous.

Personally, I’m still torn on whether or not to vote at all, and I’ve never ever felt like that ahead of a general election.

Although I don’t want to reward the Conservatives or Rishi Sunak with my vote, I can’t bring myself to vote for anyone else so it’s difficult.

I toyed with the idea of voting for Reform but I just can’t do it, and a major factor was a convincing article by Annunziata Rees-Mogg, a former Brexit Party MEP.

Based on first hand experience of Farage and Richard Tice, she shares her thoughts on Reform and uniting the right after the election. (Good luck with that!)

Do read it if you can - Why I’m backing the Tories over Reform (The Spectator).

PS. Interestingly, as you can see below, the Telegraph app is predicting that Reform will come third in Huntingdon, thereby splitting the Conservative vote and handing the seat to Labour.

How often will that scenario play out on Thursday?

Update: The Conservatives held Huntingdon, albeit with a much reduced majority (1,499, down from 19,383).

The Lib Dem vote fell from 9,432 to 4,821, which suggests some tactical voting although the votes didn’t all go to Labour which only increased its vote by 3,755.

Reform attracted 8,039 votes and came third - almost but not quite enough to unseat the Tories.

What is clear is that, in this previously safe Conservative seat, the local party is going to have to work much harder to retain or regain support.

Although my village is overwhelmingly Conservative (or conservative), judging by newspaper sales in the local shop, I can’t remember the last time a Tory candidate canvassed the area, even though the previous (Conservative) MP lives just around the corner.

If you take people’s support for granted it will eventually come back and bite you.

Update: The Conservative candidate Ben Obese-Jecty won the seat with 18,257 votes, a slim majority of 1,499 compared to 19,383 in 2019.

Labour came second with 16,758 votes, and Reform was third with 8,039.

The fearless face of health journalism

The Guardian today features an ‘investigation’ into alleged lobbying by tobacco companies opposed to the generational tobacco ban.

The report is credited to two journalists, Rob Davies and Matthew Chapman.

Davies is a business reporter at the Guardian. Over the years he has occasionally asked Forest for a quote in response to some smoking-related story.

This is unusual for a Guardian journalist writing about tobacco so I’ve always respected him for that.

Chapman is a senior reporter at The Examination which was launched last year and describes itself as an ‘independent nonprofit newsroom that investigates preventable health threats and empowers people in harm’s way’.

Also, ‘Fearless journalism for a healthier world’.

Previously Chapman worked at the Bureau of Investigative Journalism where he spent three years ‘investigating Big Tobacco’.

Funnily enough, one of his recent reports (which I wrote about here) targeted Deborah Arnott, CEO of ASH, and her former head of research Martin Dockrell.

Dockrell is better known today as the tobacco control programme lead at the Office for Health Improvement and Disparities (formerly Public Health England) and in a piece published in March, ‘in collaboration with The Times’, it was reported that:

Martin Dockrell, England’s tobacco control programme lead, had a private dinner with Juul co-founder Adam Bowen and two other company representatives at a nicotine conference in Warsaw, Poland, in June 2017 — a time when Juul products were driving a youth vaping epidemic in the US …

News of the dinner, which was also attended by Deborah Arnott, CEO of Britain’s leading anti-smoking charity Action Against Smoking and Health, has been revealed by The Examination and the Times at a time when Dockrell just shaped a new bill on vaping that was introduced to the British Parliament on Wednesday this week. 

Amusing though it was to see Arnott and Dockrell singled out for the same righteous indignation that ASH frequently reserves for Forest and the tobacco industry, the story - Civil servant in charge of vaping policy advised e-cigarette giant - seemed rather weak to me, which brings me to today’s report, of which there are three versions.

The longest and most detailed (credited solely to Chapman) is on The Examination website - Revealed: Big Tobacco’s campaign to undermine UK generational smoking ban.

Abridged versions can be found on the Guardian website (Revealed: how Sunak dropped smoking ban amid lobbying from tobacco firms) and in the print edition where it appears on page 53, so not exactly front page news.

I do however want to take issue with the inference that the ‘smoking ban’ (sic) was dropped because of lobbying and/or legal threats by the tobacco industry.

When Rishi Sunak called an early general election last month the Tobacco and Vapes Bill was still awaiting its third reading in the House of Commons and had yet to be considered by the House of Lords.

Yes, there had been a degree of perfectly legitimate lobbying by equally legitimate stakeholders opposed to a generational ban, but the reason the Bill was dropped is more prosaic.

Other bills were far more advanced so it would have been unusual, and controversial, to prioritise legislation that was still at a relatively early stage of its passage through Parliament.

On closer examination therefore only one person is responsible for the generational ban being dropped and that’s Rishi Sunak who called a snap election, but that would spoil the narrative about tobacco industry lobbying.

It also ignores the industrial scale of lobbying conducted by the anti-smoking industry that far outweighs anything the tobacco lobby might have been doing.

I should add that Forest is mentioned in the Examination/Guardian report and I’m pleased because it’s always nice when our work is recognised!

I’m curious though how The Examination knew the names of the two MPs - Alexander Stafford and Andrew Rosindell - who attended our ‘Beat the Ban’ lunch at Boisdale on May 21, the day before Sunak announced the date of the election.

It wasn’t a secret that MPs were present (I mentioned it here) but apart from Sir Philip Davies, who was a late withdrawal, we didn’t name any other MPs.

Furthermore, while Stafford was on the guest list and the table plan, Rosindell was a late, unexpected arrival and wasn’t on either. There are two explanations I can think of.

One, another guest leaked the information.

Two, and this is probably more likely, Chapman simply used his initiative and examined the gallery of photos that we made public and spotted the two MPs.

Either way, hat’s off to The Examination for some impressive sleuthing!

The good news is that both of the online reports feature the illustration of Sunak dressed as a nanny pushing an adult in a pram.

Commissioned by Forest for our campaign against the generational ban, I’m delighted it has received further exposure because I’ve always thought a good illustration is worth a thousand words.

My only regret is that it wasn’t reproduced in the Guardian’s print edition as well!

Update: According to ASH Daily News (July 1, 2024):

The title of the [Guardian] article has been changed from 'Revealed: how Sunak dropped smoking ban amid lobbying from tobacco firms' to 'Revealed: tobacco firms lobbied against smoking ban'. The Tobacco and Vapes Bill was unable to be passed into law before the general election as it had not progressed far enough through the legislative process.

This is essentially what I wrote above, two days ago, so it's nice to see my analysis confirmed by ASH, of all people.

However, I've clicked on the link to the Guardian report and the title still reads 'Revealed: how Sunak dropped smoking ban amid lobbying from tobacco firms' so perhaps it's taking a while to update.

PS. Labour’s shadow health secretary Wes Streeting was among those who reacted to the Guardian report by posting a response on X.

At the time of writing (on Saturday) Streeting’s comment had been reposted by 295 people, including Matthew Chapman.

Man behind Tory Tartan Chicken embraces Reform

One week to election day and it can’t come quickly enough. End this torture now!

When I get a moment I may post a list of some of the candidates I'd like to see win, or lose.

In the meantime, good luck to my great friend Gary Ling (above) who is standing in Watford on behalf of Reform UK.

I’ve known Gary since we were at Aberdeen University in the late Seventies, and I could write a book about all the things we've done together, including countless holidays with our wives.

In 1986 I attended his passing out parade at Sandhurst following which he spent three years as a captain in the army, much of it in Northern Ireland.

As I explained ten years ago (Another Tory defects to Ukip and this time it’s personal), one of the reasons Gary joined the army was to improve his chances of becoming a Conservative MP.

It must have helped a bit because he got on the candidates' list and fought the 1992 General Election as the Tory candidate in the safe Labour seat of Eccles in Greater Manchester.

Thereafter he came agonisingly close several times to being selected to fight a safe Conservative seat, and I do think he would have been an asset to the party (his wife Helen even more so!).

I do however wonder whether the day to day grind of being a constituency MP would have suited him because Gary is at his best, in my view, when he’s a disruptor.

I remember, for example, when he was assigned to work for the Scottish Conservatives during the 1997 general election campaign.

Tony Blair was due to visit Edinburgh and Gary was given the task of employing what was arguably the party's only weapon in that desperate campaign.

Renamed the Tory Tartan Chicken, he described what happened next here.

Since then Gary's political career has embraced not just the Tories (for whom he was a local councillor in Watford) but Ukip, the Brexit Party, and now Reform.

We don’t agree on everything but I do know that if I lived in Watford he would get my vote, not because of his political affiliation (I remain sceptical about Reform) but because I know him well enough to know that he would put his heart and soul into the job.

He would also remain utterly committed to his long-held beliefs in sovereignty, free enterprise, and personal liberty.

Like me, Gary is still a Thatcherite at heart. The difference is, he’s found a new political home whereas I don’t like or trust any of them!

See: Class of 97 - Tony Blair and the Tory Tartan Chicken

Update: YouGov polling predicts 'likely' Labour win in Watford (Watford Observer).

Boisdale turns 35

Boisdale celebrates its 35th birthday today.

To mark the occasion, 200 guests have been invited to a special lunch at Boisdale of Canary Wharf which was a relatively late addition to the Boisdale group.

At one point there were four Boisdale restaurants in London plus a pub (a former 12th century coaching inn) in Wiltshire.

The first restaurant was opened in Belgravia in 1989 by managing director Ranald Macdonald, the elder son of the 24th Chief of Clanranald.

Located in a Georgian townhouse, it was originally half its current size but was later extended into the property next door, hence the two doors at the front of the building.

Boisdale of Bishopsgate (near Liverpool Street) came next, followed by Canary Wharf (2011) and Mayfair (2014).

The Bishopsgate and Mayfair restaurants have since closed and the pub in Wiltshire is now owned by the Young’s pub chain.

Nevertheless the ongoing appeal of the Belgravia and Canary Wharf restaurants (the latter has developed into an important music venue) suggests there is plenty of life in the Boisdale brand, even if Ranald’s ambition to open a restaurant in Washington DC remains unfulfilled.

I can't attend today's lunch but I would nevertheless like to pay tribute to both Boisdale and Ranald who I first met 20 years ago.

I had heard of Boisdale (the Belgravia restaurant was half a mile from Forest's old office in Palace Street) but I had never been there.

However, after reading a comment by Ranald in the London Evening Standard opposing calls to ban smoking in restaurants and bars, I wrote to him, inviting him to support our campaign against a workplace smoking ban.

Dear reader, he didn't reply.

Undeterred, I contacted him again a few weeks later and this time he invited me to lunch and the rest, as they say, is history.

Ever since that first meeting Ranald has been a wonderful friend and supporter and Boisdale has hosted numerous Forest events including small private dinners, large gala dinners, and parties for up to 300 guests.

We marked Forest’s 30th and 35th anniversaries with events at Boisdale of Belgravia, and our 40th anniversary was celebrated with a gala dinner for 200 people at Canary Wharf.

We’ve also co-hosted two major events off site, as it were.

In September 2006 we joined forces for a Prohibition themed reception for 300+ delegates at the Conservative Party Conference in Bournemouth.

And in June 2007, five days before the introduction of the smoking ban in England, we organised what is still arguably our most ambitious and successful event, a smoker-friendly dinner for almost 400 people at The Savoy hotel in London.

Both events featured live music by the Boisdale Jazz Band, who also played on a 20-track CD, Songs for Swinging Smokers, that was recorded and released as part of our campaign against the smoking ban.

But the memory that will outlive most others is the sight of Ranald being led off stage, in handcuffs, at our event in Bournemouth following his ‘arrest’ for “inciting people to enjoy themselves”.

The fact that 300 people were happily singing ‘Always Look on the Bright Side of Life’ merely added to the surreal nature of the moment.

In short, it’s been a fabulous partnership with lots of laughs, and a working relationship that I’m very, very proud of.

Here’s to the next 35 years!

Above: Ranald Macdonald (centre) at the Forest Freedom Dinner at Boisdale of Canary Wharf in 2012; below: one of several innovative ideas Boisdale implemented during Covid to help cashflow.

Pub bore

The Morning Advertiser has announced the finalists for this year’s Great British Pub Awards.

I always take an interest because I was on the judging panel for three years (2011-2013) and in 2013 I even presented one of the awards at the Hilton Hotel in Park Lane.

I was a late stand-in after the junior government minister who had agreed to present the award for Best Outdoor Smoking Area mysteriously pulled out.

His office didn’t give a reason but it must have had something to do with the category - which was sponsored by JTI and the Save Our Pubs & Clubs campaign - because they asked if he could present one of the other awards instead.

Er, no.

This year there are 15 categories including Best Beer Pub, Best Country Pub, Best Pub for Entertainment, and Best Pub for Food.

There’s also a Best Pub for Dogs award but not a Best Pub for Smokers, unless you count Best Pub Garden which is not quite the same because these days many beer gardens have introduced restrictions on smoking, and smokers.

Truth is, even when we sponsored the Best Outdoor Smoking Area it was noticeable that some landlords were unhappy to the point of being abusive if they were nominated in case they became known as a smokers’ pub.

That, and the cost of sponsorship, was one reason the category was quietly dropped, but the Save Our Pubs & Pubs campaign was also drawing to a close as our attention turned to plain packaging.

Also, we didn’t have the resources to campaign on two fronts at the same time and without the support of the pub industry - which was always lukewarm about fighting the smoking ban - there was little or no prospect of even amending the legislation.

Nor did we get even a hint of encouragement from the Conservative-led Coalition government, which is why I was trifle bemused to read this report last week:

Tories pledge focus on pubs and clubs in 'first 100 days' (BBC News)

Let’s be clear. The Tories had the opportunity, in 2010, to focus on pubs and clubs by amending the smoking ban that had been introduced by the previous Labour government.

Instead, and despite a brave attempt by David Nuttall MP, the Conservative-led Coalition - aided and abetted by a substantial number of Tory MPs - rejected Nuttall’s fair and reasonable private bill that would have put some element of choice back into the hands of Britain’s hard-pressed publicans.

Conservative-wise, the rot therefore started with David Cameron (whose government then introduced plain packaging), continued under Theresa May (who set 2030 as the target for England to be ‘smoke free’), and reached its natural conclusion with Rishi Sunak pledging to introduce a generational ban on the sale of tobacco.

With that in mind, why would anyone now take seriously the Tories’ desperate pledge to focus on Britain’s pubs and clubs, unless the plan is to turn them all into health clubs?

As for the 2024 Great British Pub Awards, the thing that stands out for me is not only the absence of a Best Outdoor Smoking Area award, but the lack of recognition for Best Urban Pub or Best Pub That Doesn’t Serve Food - in other words, the type of pub that used to be popular with smokers but is rapidly being consigned to history.

Don’t get me wrong, I like a good gastro pub as much as anyone. Nevertheless, the speed with which Britain’s traditional boozers are closing would appear to have as much to do with social engineering as it does with changing trends.

The Great British Pub Awards therefore represent a useful barometer of where the nation is heading, and I can’t say I like it.