Election special

‘This Thursday I shall do something I haven’t done on election night in half a century. I shall switch off my TV, radio and phone and go to bed.’

Like Matthew Parris, writing in The Times yesterday, I won’t be staying up tonight.

Watching the party I have always voted for in general elections reduced to fewer than 150 MPs won’t be a pleasant experience, but they’ve brought it upon themselves so there will be very little sympathy from me.

Furthermore, while I am (very) apprehensive about a Labour government, there are a significant number of Conservatives I won’t be sorry to see the back of.

Naturally they include most of the MPs who voted in favour of the Tobacco and Vapes Bill in April, but it’s a such long list I won’t name them all here.

Instead, here are some of the Tories I definitely won’t miss should they lose their seats. It’s a bit random but they all voted for the generational ban so good riddance to them should that happen.

Bob Blackman, Harrow East
Majority: 8,170

Chairman of the All Party Parliamentary Group on Smoking and Health, which is run by ASH, Bob Blackman appears to have made it his mission to eradicate smoking regardless of what I mistakenly thought were traditional Conservative values. Sadly, freedom of choice and personal responsibility appear to be anathema to him, just as they are for many Tory MPs for whom state sponsored paternalism has become deeply embedded in their political psyche. Worse, they have allied themselves to the tobacco control industry whose agenda is arguably driven as much by a hatred of a legal industry as it is by a concern for public health. Defending a majority of 8,170 makes Blackman extremely vulnerable so fingers crossed!

Maggie Throup, Erewash
Majority: 10,606

Maggie Throup is another member of the APPG on Smoking and Health whose seat in Parliament looks vulnerable. Like Blackman ASH are unlikely to miss her because I’m sure there will be plenty of MPs only too happy to fill her shoes, but were she to lose it would at least allow us a wry smile. Prediction: gone and quickly forgotten.

Tom Tugendhat, Tonbridge, Edenbridge, and North Downs Villages
Majority: n/a

Tugenhart's previous seat in Tunbridge and Malling, where he had a majority of 26,941, has been abolished and he is now the Conservative candidate for the new seat of Tonbridge, Edenbridge, and North Downs Villages. My concern is that, if elected, he will almost certainly throw his hat into the ring to become the new leader of the Conservative Party. If that's the direction the Tories want to go, good luck to them, but electing an advocate of creeping prohibition and the nanny state would hardly be a good look if the Tories are to challenge the new Labour government. Who needs more of the same?

Grant Shapps, Welwyn Hatfield
Majority: 10,955

Shapps is another who may fancy his chances in a leadership battle. Whether he gets the chance to stand is another matter, though. In 2019 he won Welwyn Hatfield with a majority of almost 11,000 but that must be looking a little fragile now. Victory for Labour in Welwyn Hatfield won't help us, of course, but it would be good to remove from the battlefield another potential Tory leader who seems to favour the nanny state over personal liberty.

Oliver Dowden, Hertsmere
Majority: 21,313

Yet another Tory minister who voted for the Tobacco and Vapes Bill and could also have eyes on the leadership prize. In a perfect world, any Tory who supports a generational ban on purchasing tobacco should be prohibited from standing, but the reality is that only one member of the Cabinet (Kemi Badenoch) opposed it at the second reading, which tells you a lot about the current Conservative Party. Dowden may have a better chance of hanging on to his seat but I wouldn’t be sorry if he was one of several 'Portillo' moments tonight. Then again, he's so anonymous most people probably won’t notice.

Richard Holden, Basildon and Billericay
Majority: 20,412

This is a strange one because Richard Holden is (or was) a smoker. We know this because in 2021 he was fined £100 for dropping a cigarette. Sadly, like many politicians who are smokers (David Cameron comes to mind), he appears happy to support anti-smoking measures that target fellow smokers or, in this case, future generations of adults who might also wish to smoke. The former MP for Durham North West recently abandoned his seat in the North East (majority 1,144) in favour of being parachuted in to Basildon and Billericay where the Tories are defending a majority of 20,412. A pattern of behaviour is emerging …

Rishi Sunak, Richmond, North Yorkshire
Majority: 27,210

I’ve nothing against Rishi personally. He seems a nice guy with a lovely family but he’s a hopeless politician, a vacuous political vessel, and if he loses his seat it’s on him and no-one else. He knifed Boris when the Tories were six points behind Labour in the polls and it’s been downhill ever since.

The announcement of a progressive tobacco sales ban - mimicking a Labour government in New Zealand - was a low point for me and many others, and including it in the Conservative manifesto – knowing how divisive the policy is among Tory MPs – was the final straw.

It’s rare if not unprecedented for a prime minister to lose their seat in a general election, and it would take a political earthquake to squander a majority of 27,210 in one of the safest Tory seats in the county. Nevertheless it would be an historic moment and richly deserved.

Sorry, Rishi, but you blew it with me and many other Conservative voters when you announced a generational tobacco ban and you will not be missed.

On a more positive note, here are five Conservative candidates I do want to see returned to Parliament. Several are vulnerable however so watch this space:

Kemi Badenoch, North West Essex
Majority: n/a

Kemi Badenoch won her previous constituency, Saffron Walden, with a majority of 27,594 in 2019. The seat has now been abolished and she is fighting a new seat, North West Essex, which some say makes her more likely to be defeated.

Badenoch was the only Cabinet minister to vote against the Tobacco and Vapes Bill at the second reading in April and, while I appreciate that it’s a niche issue for many people, I cannot stress how important it is that someone with her principles and values is returned to Parliament because there won’t be many of them in the new Parliament.

If she is returned she needs to stand for the leadership of the Conservative Party and, if she wins that election (a big ‘if’), her principles must be supported by those she leads. The alternative, looking at her likely rivals, is grim. But first, she has to win her seat. C’mon, Kemi!

Sir Philip Davies, Shipley
Majority: 6,242

Philip (now Sir Philip) Davies has been a friend of Forest for more than 15 years, sponsoring receptions at the House of Commons and speaking at several other events. And that’s despite the fact that he dislikes smoking and is not shy about saying so. He is however a man of principle, which is rare among politicians, and he is a firm believer in freedom of choice and personal responsibility.

Sadly, recent comments suggest he has written off his chances of re-election. He is even reported to have bet £8,000 on losing his seat which he has held since 2005 with an initial majority of 422. Whatever he does next (more GB News, a consultant to the betting industry, perhaps), I wish him well. He will be a significant loss to those of us who want a smaller, less regulated state.

Sir John Hayes, South Holland and The Deepings
Majority: 30,838

First elected to parliament in 1997 with a majority of 7,991 (49.3% of the vote), the chairman of the Common Sense Group of MPs is now defending a majority of 30,838 (75.9% of the vote in 2019), making it the safest Conservative seat in the last Parliament. If this article in UnHerd is to be believed (The last bastion of Tory Britain), Hayes is a 'secure Tory' who 'campaigns like a lover'. More important, he has generally voted against nanny state measures which makes him an increasingly rare breed.

See also: Lookout, it's John Hayes!

Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg, North East Somerset and Hanham
Majority: n/a

Technically, this is a new seat, replacing North East Somerset that Jacob Rees-Mogg won with a majority of 14,729 in 2019. It's easy to mock the Conservative candidate for North East Somerset and Hanham and, for what it's worth, I don't see him as a future leader of the party or anything like that. Nevertheless I do want to see him returned to Parliament because we desperately need MPs with the principles and values he has stuck to throughout his time in office and on the backbenches.

Also, and this is a minor but important issue, I have rarely known any MP to be so good at responding to correspondence even if it's to decline an invitation to some event. To put this in perspective, and speaking from personal experience alone, the vast majority of MPs rarely reply to letters, emails or invitations from non-constituents. Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg (or his secretary) invariably does.

This isn't rocket science. The most basic requirement of an MP must be to run an efficient, functioning office. It shouldn't be beyond most of them but it clearly is. If MPs can't run their offices properly how can we have confidence in them to run a government department, should that opportunity arise? A bit niche, perhaps, but if I lived in North Somerset Sir Jacob would get my vote on the efficiency of his office alone!

Giles Watling, Clacton
Majority: 24,702

I’m biased because Giles Watling did Forest a huge favour when he stood in at the last moment to sponsor our reception at the House of Commons in February. But apart from that, he struck me as very decent, with a good sense of humour, and no airs and graces.

The elephant in the room (or should I say Clacton) is Nigel Farage. A few weeks ago part of me would have liked to see Farage elected (for the entertainment value if nothing else) but, as I suggested recently, I suspect the novelty (for him and for us) will wear off very quickly, especially if he is one of only two or three Reform MPs.

Moreover, having toyed with voting for my local Reform candidate, I was convinced not to by an article by another Rees-Mogg – Annunziata Rees-Mogg, a former Brexit Party MEP. Annunziata's warning about a top down party intolerant of any internal dissent rings true, I'm afraid, and Farage's threat to take over the Conservative Party strikes me as unbelievably arrogant.

The expectation is that Watling will lose to Farage but he strikes me as a good man and a hard-working constituency MP so I’m rooting for him to defeat the odds and win. If that denies us the sound and fury of Farage denouncing the generational tobacco ban in Parliament, so be it.

It’s worth noting though that over the past few months Farage (and Reform) have had remarkably little to say about the policy, and that speaks volumes too.

In addition to the above I’ll be keeping an eye on the fate of all the other Conservative candidates who voted against the Tobacco and Vapes Bill in April.

It will be an almost impossible task to stop the ban when Labour introduces their own legislation in the new parliament, but if there is to be any opposition it's essential that the following (who all voted against the Bill at second reading) are returned:

2019 majorities in brackets

Sarah Atherton, Wrexham (2,131)
Shaun Bailey, West Bromwich West (constituency abolished, now standing in Tipton & Wednesbury)
Steve Baker, Wycombe (4,214)
Simon Baynes, Clwyd South (1,239), now North Shropshire
Sir Jake Berry, Rossendale and Darwen (9,522)
Suella Braverman, Fareham (26,086)
Paul Bristow, Peterborough (2,580)
Alex Burghart, Brentwood and Ongar (29,065)
Rehman Chishti, Gillingham and Rainham (15,119)
Sir Christopher Chope, Christchurch (24,617)
Sir Simon Clarke, Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland (11,626)
Brendan Clarke-Smith, Bassetlaw (14,013)
Sarah Dines, Derbyshire Dales (17,381)
Dame Jackie Doyle-Price, Thurrock (11,482)
Nick Fletcher, Don Valley (constituency abolished, now standing in Doncaster East)
Mark Francois, Rayleigh and Wickford (31,000)
Richard Fuller, North East Bedfordshire (24,283), now North Bedfordshire
Chris Green, Bolton West (8,855)
Andrew Griffith, Arundel and South Downs (22,521)
Jonathan Gullis, Stoke-on-Trent North (6,286)
Darren Henry, Broxtowe (5,331)
Adam Holloway, Gravesham (15,581)
Tom Hunt, Ipswich (5,479)
Robert Jenrick, Newark (21,816)
Sir Edward Leigh, Gainsborough (22,967)
Andrew Lewer, Northampton South (4,697)
Marco Longhi, Dudley North (11,533)
Julia Lopez, Hornchurch and Upminster (23,308)
Rachel Maclean, Redditch (16,036)
Anthony Mangnall, Totnes (12,724), now standing in South Devon
Karl McCartney, Lincoln (3,514)
Anne Marie Morris, Newton Abbot (17,501)
Tom Randall, Gedling (679)
Laurence Robertson, Tewkesbury (22,410)
Andrew Rosindell, Romford (17,893)
Lee Rowley, North East Derbyshire (12,876)
Gary Sambrook, Birmingham Northfield (1,640)
Sir Alec Shelbrooke, Elmet and Rothwell (17,353), constituency abolished, now standing in Wetherby & Easingwold
Greg Smith, Buckingham (20,411), now Mid Buckinghamshire
Alexander Stafford, Rother Valley (6,318)
Jane Stevenson, Wolverhampton North East (4,080)
John Stevenson, Carlisle (8,319)
Sir Desmond Swayne, New Forest West (24,403)
Elizabeth Truss, South West Norfolk (26,195)

My guess is that any Conservative candidate whose majority in 2019 was less than 10,000 will struggle to hold their seat, but even candidates sitting on much larger majorities will be nervous, especially high profile candidates targeted for tactical voting.

Sadly, we have already lost a number of Conservative MPs who voted against the Tobacco and Vapes Bill, with the following all choosing not to stand for re-election:

Adam Afriyie, Windsor
Richard Bacon, South Norfolk
Sir Graham Brady, Altrincham and Sale West
Dehenna Davison, Bishop Auckland
Jonathan Djanogly, Huntingdon
Sir James Duddridge, Rochford and Southend East
Mark Eastwood, Dewsbury
George Eustice, Camborne and Redruth
Paul Holmes, Eastleigh
Eddie Hughes, Walsall North (constituency abolished)
Sir Greg Knight, East Yorkshire

As for the new generation of Tory candidates, it's a sign of my age (probably), but I recognise very few and how many are genuinely liberal on a lifestyle issue like smoking must be open to doubt.

If elected, most will probably take their cue from the next leader of the party, hence the importance of whoever succeeds Sunak.

That said, two 'new' candidates do stand out as potential allies. The first is Mhairi Fraser (Epsom and Ewell) who spoke at the launch of Popular Conservatism in February when I wrote:

"The state is no Mary Poppins," [she said] adding, "It's time to put nanny to bed".

Rishi Sunak's generational tobacco ban was one of the policies she criticised, and her comments drew warm applause which surprised me a bit because Conservative audiences can be capricious when it comes to smoking.

Another small state Tory who would make an excellent member of parliament is Alex Deane, a former director of Big Brother Watch and a familiar face to viewers of Sky News, GB News and Talk TV.

Alex is the Conservative candidate for Finchley and Golders Green where the Tory majority in 2019 was 6,562, which probably makes it a marginal (at best) in 2024.

Courageously he is attempting to win the seat previously held by Mike Freer who stood down after his office was targeted for an arson attack on Christmas Eve.

Frankly, that rather puts the Tobacco and Vapes Bill into perspective, but I nevertheless hope that Alex and other candidates who have previously opposed nanny state policies will, if elected, stick with their convictions rather than taking the path of least resistance (a familiar Tory failing).

Anyway, I'll let you know how many of the candidates I’m rooting for win their seats. Fingers crossed, it will be more than single figures!

Comments

[Pat Nurse]

I would like to vote again for Karl McCartney given his opposition to the Nanny State and especially as the Labour candidate, privileged and vacuous son of Labour's Lord Falconer, is in it for his party and himself and not for the people of Lincoln. His accusations of racist and fascist at every turn make me doubt he will be a listening MP but rather a judgemental and unpleasant one who will use the plight of the poor and oppressed as a political football while making absolutely no positive effect on anyone's lives.

BUT - Karl ignored me as a local constituent when I wrote about my concerns regarding the criminalisation of future generations of smokers, despite being against the policy on record, and a vote for Karl is a vote for Rishi Sunak as the leader who not only stabbed Boris in the back but every single one of us persuaded to lend our vote to Tories in hope that we would get real change.To vote Tory is a vote for the removal of more personal liberties under Rishi and there is no difference between his Tories and Starmer's Labour on an issue of utmost importance to me.

The Nanny State on steroids was not the change anyone but a handful of lobbyists and intolerant smokerphobics wanted. Most of us want the freedom to be left alone in peace to enjoy life in a way we choose. After all, life is difficult enough without sanctimonious politicians making it worse.

I am still undecided. Even today on election day I have no idea who will get my X or whether I will just tell them all to go fxxk themselves on a spoiled ballot.

[Stephen Helfer]

Although this is a British election it will have some worldwide influence, particularly regarding the War on Tobacco. We want to thank Simon and Pat for paying attention and fighting against the petty tyranny that is Tobacco Control.

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