Election epilogue

Quick update on my previous post, written ahead of the Election on Thursday.

But first, here’s a comment posted by Eamonn Butler, co-founder of the Adam Smith Institute, on Facebook:

Biggest Con-Lab swing since 1945; second lowest turnout (59.9%) since 1918; 3m fewer votes than Corbyn; lowest winning vote share (33.8%) since 1945; Tories + Reform on 48%; 40.3% of seats won on <40% vote share; PM’s own majority down 11,195; pro-Gaza MPs now 6th-largest Parliamentary group. Funny old world.

Funny old world, indeed.

But before moving on (and we must move on) I just wanted to tie up a few loose ends because on Thursday, before the results were known, I named a number Conservatives I wanted to see returned to Parliament, and several I hoped would be cast out, never to be heard of again.

This was based on how they voted after the second reading of the Tobacco and Vapes Bill in April. It’s a niche issue, and I know there are more important matters, but (for me) voting for or against the generational tobacco ban indicates the type of politician you are - paternalistic/authoritarian or free market/socially liberal – and the type of society you want to live in.

In that context I can reveal that the results were, to say the least, mixed.

The good news is that the following (who all voted against the Tobacco and Vapes Bill) won their seats:

Kemi Badenoch, North West Essex
Suella Braverman, Fareham
Alex Burghart, Brentwood and Ongar
Sir Christopher Chope, Christchurch
Mark Francois, Rayleigh and Wickford
Richard Fuller, North Bedfordshire
Andrew Griffith, Arundel and South Downs
Robert Jenrick, Newark
Sir Edward Leigh, Gainsborough
Julia Lopez, Hornchurch and Upminster
Andrew Rosindell, Romford
Sir Alec Shelbrooke, Wetherby and Easingwold
Greg Smith, Mid Buckinghamshire
Sir Desmond Swayne, New Forest West

The bad news is we lost a considerable number of potential allies, notably Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg, Sir Philip Davies, Steve Baker, Sir Jake Berry, Sir Simon Clarke, Giles Watling, and Liz Truss.

Other Conservatives who voted against the Tobacco and Vapes Bill and lost their seats were:

Sarah Atherton, Wrexham
Shaun Bailey, Tipton and Wednesbury
Simon Baynes, North Shropshire
Paul Bristow Peterborough
Rehman Chishti, Gillingham and Rainham
Brendan Clarke-Smith, Bassetlaw
Sarah Dines, Derbyshire Dales
Dame Jackie Doyle-Price, Thurrock
Nick Fletcher, Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme
Chris Green, Bolton West
Jonathan Gullis, Stoke-on-Trent North
Darren Henry, Broxtowe
Adam Holloway, Gravesham
Tom Hunt, Ipswich
Andrew Lewer, Northampton South
Marco Longhi, Dudley
Rachel Maclean, Redditch
Anthony Mangnall, South Devon
Karl McCartney, Lincoln
Anne Marie Morris, Newton Abbot
Tom Randall, Gedling
Laurence Robertson, Tewkesbury
Lee Rowley, North East Derbyshire
Gary Sambrook, Birmingham Northfield
Alexander Stafford, Rother Valley
Jane Stevenson, Wolverhampton North East
John Stevenson, Carlisle

Add to that the eleven Tory MPs who voted against the Bill but stood down before the election, and you can see the problem we face in the new Parliament.

(By my calculation, 34 of the 57 Conservatives who voted against the Bill have either stood down or lost their seats. On Thursday night we even lost the DUP's Ian Paisley who has consistently opposed anti-tobacco legislation.)

There was mixed news too concerning two Conservative members of the APPG on Smoking and Health, which is run by ASH and has been chaired - indeed driven - in recent years by Bob Blackman, the Conservative MP for Harrow East.

Defending a majority of 8,170, Blackman was widely expected to lose his seat. Instead he won with 53.3 per of the vote and an increased majority which, to be fair, was quite an achievement.

In the circumstances it was small consolation that fellow Tory Maggie Throup (Erewash), another member of the APPG on Smoking and Health, lost her seat because I suspect she will be easier to replace than Blackman would have been.

The latter, after all, has made the eradication of smoking a personal crusade, more so than any other Tory MP, and will no doubt continue to do so.

Another disappointing result was in Epsom and Ewell where Mhairi Fraser, a new Tory candidate who I praised as an opponent of the nanny state, came second to the Liberal Democrats.

Likewise, Alex Deane - another opponent of the nanny state who was fighting a seat for the first time - failed to win Finchley and Golders Green, coming second to Labour in what had been a Conservative-held seat for decades.

It's not all doom and gloom, though. The front runners to succeed Rishi Sunak as leader of the Conservative Party include three former ministers who voted against the Tobacco and Vapes Bill: Kemi Badenoch, Suella Braverman, and Robert Jenrick.

It won't stop Labour passing the legislation required to phase out the sale of tobacco, but if one of them were to win the leadership election it will at least offer hope that the Tories aren't going to blindly follow Labour down the path of excessive regulation.

As for Reform, I would imagine the party’s MPs will take their cue from Nigel Farage and if Farage chooses to he and his fellow Reform MPs (five in total) could make quite a lot of noise about the generational ban. But will they?

As I say, neither the Tories nor Reform can stop the new Labour government introducing and passing its own tobacco bill, but opposing it would at least put the nanny state back on the political agenda.

Finally, have you noticed how people on the centre right, whether they be politicians or members of the general public, have accepted the result of the election without taking to the streets in protest?

(If there are complaints they are directed at the Conservative government for being so useless and the Conservative Party for running one of the worst election campaigns in history.)

That’s how democracy works, folks. If you don’t like the result of an election, or (God forbid) a referendum, and wish to challenge or overturn it undemocratically or by force, go and live somewhere where democracy is neither respected nor recognised, and see how you like it there.

In the meantime, and despite the ‘unfairness’ of the first past the post system, let's be thankful that the next few days and weeks won’t be dominated by parties going back and forth doing back room deals trying to conjure up some sort of coalition or working majority.

It’s a funny old world but in the context of a UK general election proportional representation would be no laughing matter.

Update: Tory MP who increased majority to run as Chairman of 1922 Committee (Telegraph)