Sarah Wollaston, friend or foe?

Between now and the General Election on May 7 I'm highlighting a number of 'target seats', those where the candidate standing for re-election has supported anti-tobacco policies, and those where a leading candidate is an opponent of excessive lifestyle regulations and policies that infantilise us all. With a handful of exceptions, including this one, I'm focussing on marginal or semi-marginal seats.

#12 – Totnes (Devon)
Former GP Sarah Wollaston was the first person to be selected as a parliamentary candidate for a major British political party (the Conservatives) via an open primary. Fiercely independent (no bad thing), she was appointed chairman of the Health Select Committee in June 2014 whereupon she declared that the state has a "duty to intervene" to protect current and future generations from unhealthy habits threatening to shorten their lives. She is, needless to say, a strong supporter of plain packaging and other tobacco control policies. Totnes is effectively a battle between the Tories and Lib Dems and given Wollaston's high profile and independent streak it would be a big surprise if she didn't retain her seat.

2010 majority: 4,927 (10.3%)
Estimated number of smokers in Totnes: 13,591
Principal opponent: Liberal Democrat
Friend or foe: Foe
Target rating: Poor

*Based on 20% of the registered electorate in 2010

Note: Marginal seats have been defined as those with majorities of 10% or less that require a swing of 5% for the incumbent party to lose.

Jackie Doyle-Price, friend or foe?

Between now and the General Election on May 7 I'm highlighting my top 40 'target seats', those where the candidate standing for re-election has supported anti-tobacco policies, and those where a leading candidate is an opponent of excessive lifestyle regulations and policies that infantilise us all. With a few exceptions, I'm focussing on marginal or semi-marginal seats.

#11 - Thurrock
A curious feature of the 2015 election is the number of Conservative candidates in marginal seats who voted against plain packaging. They either felt it would make no difference to their chances of re-election (so much for David Cameron's "feelgood politics") or, shock horror, they stood by their principles. Or perhaps both. One such candidate is Jackie Doyle-Price who voted against plain packs, supported an amendment to the smoking ban, and is defending a wafer thin majority of 92. If Ukip increase their vote it will almost certainly deliver the seat to Labour and another opponent of the nanny state will bite the dust.

2010 majority: 92 (0.2%)
Estimated number of smokers in Thurrock: 18,476*
Principal opponents: Labour
Friend or foe: Friend
Target rating: Extremely vulnerable

*Based on 20% of the registered electorate in 2010

Note: marginal seats have been defined as those with majorities of 10% or less that require a swing of 5% for the incumbent party to lose.

Bob Blackman, friend or foe?

Between now and the General Election on May 7 I'm highlighting a number of 'target seats', those where the candidate standing for re-election has consistently supported anti-tobacco policies, and those where a leading candidate has been a consistent opponent of excessive lifestyle regulations and policies that infantilise us all. With a handful of exceptions, I'm focussing on marginal or semi-marginal seats.

#10 - Harrow East
Secretary of the All Party Parliamentary Group on Smoking and Health (run by ASH), Bob Blackman was one of the more prominent anti-smoking MPs in the last parliament. A supporter of plain packaging, he championed the ban on smoking in cars with children and believes the major priority of local authorties in terms of public health is "to reduce the number of people smoking and reduce the consumption of tobacco-related products". At the last election Blackman's principal opponent, Labour's Tony McNulty, was under an expenses cloud. If the Labour vote recovers, and Ukip take votes from the Tories, Blackman could be toast.

2010 majority: 3,403 (7.1%)
Estimated number of smokers in Harrow East: 12,512*
Principal opponent: Labour
Friend or foe: Foe
Target rating: High

*Based on 20% of the registered electorate in 2010

Note: Marginal seats have been defined as those with majorities of 10% or less that require a swing of 5% for the incumbent party to lose.

Ian Paisley Jr, friend or foe?

Between now and the General Election on May 7 I'm highlighting my top 40 'target seats', those where the candidate standing for re-election has consistently supported anti-tobacco policies, and those where a leading candidate is a consistent opponent of excessive lifestyle regulations and policies that infantilise us all. With a few exceptions, like this one, I'm focussing on marginal or semi-marginal seats.

#9 - North Antrim
This is the safest seat on my target list. It's so safe it doesn't really belong here but I wanted to highlight Ian Paisley Jr's tireless campaign against excessive regulations. Some might say his opposition to plain packaging was driven by personal interest – the impact on over 800 workers at the JTI factory in his constituency – but a comment on smoking in cars with children suggests a deeper conviction based on commonsense: "What we should really be engaging in is educating people. We do not require legislation to educate people not to be prats and to be sensible." Likewise an article in which he wrote, "Shame on all those zealots who egged on and continue to egg on over-regulation." There may be some irony in the son of the thunderous Ian Paisley cautioning against zealots, but let's be grateful there's one politician in Northern Ireland willing to stand up to the tobacco taliban. It's a lonely task but someone's got to do it.

2010 majority: 12,558 (29.6%)
Estimated number of smokers in North Antrim: 14,670*
Principal opponents: TUV / Sinn Fein (barely visible in rear view mirror)
Friend or foe: Friend
Target rating: Impregnable

*Based on 20% of the registered electorate in 2010

Note: marginal seats have been defined as those with majorities of 10% or less that require a swing of 5% for the incumbent party to lose.

I've started so I'll finish

Hope I'm not boring the pants off readers by listing election candidates as 'friend or foe'.

It began as a bit of fun to relieve the boredom. Leaders' debate, challengers' debate, Paxman in full Rottweiler mode - it all left me cold.

I live in one of the safest Conservative seats in the country and it's obvious the parties are focusing their efforts on the marginals because we haven't received a single flyer or knock on the door from anyone. That's highly unusual.

Election posters are in short supply too. The incumbent Conservative candidate has a large banner on the gate of his house in the village and there's a monster Ukip placard outside another property, but that's about it.

The message is clear: this is a safe seat and no amount of campaigning will make any difference so let's throw our resources into neighbouring seats like Bedford that are too close to call.

If the same thing is happening throughout the country the 2015 election may by-pass many people. It certainly won't encourage them to vote. No-one likes being taken for granted.

The TV debates are said to have been watched by four to seven million people. There are 41 million people registered to vote. What percentage were watching in marginal seats, where the election will be won and lost, and why would it make a difference even if they were?

Marginal seats are often won on the strength of the individual candidate (the incumbent has a big advantage too) not the party or party leader. That's why good constituency MPs like Philip Davies often increase their majorities, regardless of national swings for or against their parties.

But back to my own list of 'target seats'. Writing on Forest's Facebook page someone commented that:

This election is about more than cigarettes. I am a smoker. That's why I'm here but attacking an MP that cares for other issues which are more important is stupid.

He has a point but I felt it needed a response so I wrote:

Plain packaging is not a big issue to most people but I will not vote for a candidate who supports it because of the bigger, more important issues it represents. Ditto the smoking ban, display ban etc etc. I am a non-smoker and I have always said that the battle we are fighting concerns big versus small government, excessive state intervention versus individual freedom. I'm sorry you don't recognise that.

Anyway I've started so I'll finish, even if it drives me (and you) to sleep.

Tomorrow: Ian Paisley Jr. and Bob Blackman.

Paul Burstow, friend or foe?

Between now and the General Election on May 7 I'm highlighting my top 40 'target seats', those where the candidate standing for re-election has consistently supported anti-tobacco policies, and those where a leading candidate is a consistent opponent of excessive lifestyle regulations and policies that infantilise us all. With a few exceptions, I'm focussing on marginal or semi-marginal seats.

#8 - Sutton & Cheam
Now here's a proper marginal. Better still, the incumbent is the current chairman of the All Party Parliamentary Group on Smoking and Health, run by ASH. Not content with plain packaging, the display ban and other anti-smoking policies, Paul Burstow recently tried to introduce a Bill "to make tobacco companies contribute more to putting right the damage caused by smoking". More? 80% of the retail price of tobacco already goes to the government. Isn't that enough to pay for stop smoking programmes (which aren't hugely successful anyway) and the alleged cost of treating smoking-related diseases? The exciting news is that Burstow's principal opponent is public affairs consultant and former Sutton councillor Paul Scully who attended a Forest event at the 2011 Conservative conference in Manchester and tweeted, "Forest fringe event at the comedy store is possibly the best ever in my 14 years at conference."

2010 majority: 1,608 (3.3%)
Estimated number of smokers in Sutton & Cheam: 13,326*
Principal opponent: Conservative
Friend or foe: Foe
Target rating: Very high

*Based on 20% of the registered electorate in 2010

Note: marginal seats have been defined as those with majorities of 10% or less that require a swing of 5% for the incumbent party to lose.

Robert Halfon, friend or foe?

Between now and the General Election on May 7 I'm highlighting my top 40 'target seats', those where the candidate standing for re-election has consistently supported anti-tobacco policies, and those where a leading candidate is a consistent opponent of excessive lifestyle regulations and policies that infantilise us all. With a few exceptions, I'm focussing on marginal or semi-marginal seats.

#7 - Harlow
The standout campaigner in parliament (and one of the nicest politicians you could meet), Robert Halfon is best known for his successful campaign for cheaper petrol but he also lent his weight to other campaigns, opposing bingo tax and plain packaging, for example. Even his appointment as PPS to George Osborne failed to silence him and his decision to vote against plain packaging in defiance of his boss demonstrated enormous integrity. Regardless of party allegiance, British politics would be far healthier if there were more people like Rob Halfon in parliament.

2010 majority: 4,925 (11.2%)
Estimated number of smokers in Harlow: 13,480*
Principal opponent: Labour
Friend or foe: Friend
Target rating: No room for complacency

*Based on 20% of the registered electorate in 2010

Note: marginal seats have been defined as those with majorities of 10% or less that require a swing of 5% for the incumbent party to lose.

Luciana Berger, friend or foe?

Between now and the General Election on May 7 I'm highlighting my top 40 'target seats', those where the candidate standing for re-election has consistently supported anti-tobacco policies, and those where a leading candidate is a consistent opponent of excessive regulations and policies that infantilise us all. With a few exceptions, like this one, I'm focussing on marginal or semi-marginal seats.

#6 – Liverpool Wavertree
It would be a monumental surprise if former smoker Luciana Berger lost her seat. Having overcome local opposition to her selection in 2010, Labour's shadow health spokesman enjoyed a comfortable majority and if the Lib Dem vote collapses I expect her to win by a landslide this time. As readers know, I have a soft spot for Berger. I disagreed strongly with her advocacy of plain packaging and smoking in cars with children (and she is painfully 'on message' at times) but credit where credit's due - politically she played a blinder. After the election let's hope she's given a new job so she can wreak havoc elsewhere!

2010 majority: 7,167 (18.9%)
Estimated number of smokers in Liverpool Wavertree: 12,512*
Principal opponent: Liberal Democrats
Friend or foe: Foe
Target rating: Impregnable

*Based on 20% of the registered electorate in 2010

Note: marginal seats have been defined as those with majorities of 10% or less that require a swing of 5% for the incumbent party to lose.