More statistical trickery?
Wednesday, February 22, 2012 at 10:06 More on plain packaging:
Cancer Research UK claims that "around 157,000 children aged 11-15 start smoking every year - that’s enough to fill 5,200 classrooms or make up nearly 14,000 junior football teams".
In a press release issued yesterday (for today), Jean King, CRUK's director of tobacco control, said:
“Our research has shown that selling all cigarettes in standardised packs will help reduce the appeal of smoking and give children one less reason to start smoking.”
But wait. Look again at those "start smoking" figures. According to CRUK:
The “started smoking” figure is calculated by comparing the smoking rates at each age with the smoking rates of the same group in the year before.
There were an additional 2 per cent smokers in 2010 than 2009 (regular smokers from 1 per cent to 3 per cent) but in addition 2 per cent of the 12 year old smokers in 2009 gave up (used to smoke up from 2 per cent to 4 per cent) so an equivalent number of smokers must have started (or else the 2 per cent smokers giving up and starting would cancel each other out) so there are actually 4 per cent new children smoking.
The four per cent is applied to the UK population to give a number of new children age 13 who start smoking in the UK. This is repeated for the other age groups and the totals added to give a figure for the number of new children.
Previous research has only been done for England and on the number of children who try smoking for the first time.
So 13 year olds in 2010 are compared with 12 year olds in 2009. Both regular – one or more cigarette per week – and occasional smokers – less than one cigarette per week – are included ...
Well, that's clear. Not.
For the record Forest released a brief statement in response to CRUK's press release. We said:
"There is very little evidence to suggest that children are encouraged to smoke by the sight of a branded packet. Children start smoking for many reasons but it is mostly due to peer pressure and the influence of family members.
"Plain packaging could be counter-productive. Counterfeit cigarettes are a big problem in Britain and standardised packs will make life much easier for criminal gangs who don't care who they sell to, adults or children.
"Instead of introducing yet another law that will hit retailers and adult consumers, the government should enforce laws that already exist and crack down on those who sell cigarettes to children."
I understand we were quoted on ITV's Daybreak but that's about it. Not for the first time the press (and the Press Association) chose to run a tobacco control story without a single balancing comment.
Fancy that!
Reader Comments (2)
The magic words "our research" guaranteed to eradicate any doubt whatsoever.
I know it's heresy to doubt the word of such an august body as CRUK but what research was that, then? anybody know? Surely there must be some trail of 157,000 kids being questioned.
It's OK to doubt the words of CRUK. They no longer pretend to be an objective, scientific organisation or they would not fund ASH UK. I stopped my small monthly donation about three years, sending them a letter to explain why.