Tory rebellion still on track

Further to yesterday’s post about Boris Johnson, the Telegraph reports that:

Rishi Sunak is facing a revolt next week over his proposal to ban smoking after it was criticised by two former prime ministers and his ex-home secretary.

One backbencher estimated that around 100 of his colleagues could defy Mr Sunak, which would make it the biggest rebellion of his premiership.

There is, though, a caveat:

However, even a major rebellion is unlikely to derail the legislation because it has Labour’s support.

Furthermore:

To force a defeat, at least 274 Tories would need to rebel, subject to how other parties voted. 

Nevertheless:

The Government’s working majority is now 51, meaning only 26 Tory rebels would be needed to leave Mr Sunak reliant on Labour votes.

Which would be very embarrassing for the PM.

The Telegraph adds that:

Although dozens of Tory MPs are understood to have concerns about the smoking ban, rebels are split about whether to oppose the Bill outright or attempt to amend it.

The second reading of the Tobacco and Vapes Bill takes place on Tuesday (April 16), when we would expect there to be a vote that the Government will no doubt win,

That’s not the end of it, though. The Bill then has go to the committee and report stages, when amendments can be tabled.

It also has to go the House of Lords before going back to the Commons.

The Telegraph adds that:

Philip Davies, a senior Tory backbencher, confirmed that he would vote against the policy at its third reading further down the line, while another prominent figure said: “I would be surprised if the noes were less than 100.”

I wrote about Philip here following the recent announcement that he is to receive a knighthood.

He was due to host our reception at the House of Commons in February but had to drop out owing to a double-booking.

He nevertheless promised to remain a “hardline opponent” of the generational tobacco ban and he’s been true to his word.

What the Telegraph makes clear is that, while the odds of overturning Rishi Sunak’s generational ban are heavily against us, that’s no reason for us to give up, even if the second reading vote offers only a limited rebellion.

Truth is, Tory MPs will be reluctant to rock the boat before the local elections on May 2 but a bad result (widely expected) could change everything.

We’ll see.

See: Sunak faces Tory revolt over smoking ban plan (Telegraph)