Pot, kettle, black, the astounding hypocrisy of ASH

It's World No Tobacco Day (sic) on Saturday.

This WHO organised event normally gets a lukewarm reception in Britain where we have enough anti-smoking promotions of our own, notably No Smoking Day, Stoptober and New Year's Day.

This year however it could be different and I wonder if the proximity of World No Tobacco Day to the Queen's Speech (which may or may not include plain packaging) and the anticipated announcement of the government consultation on plain pack regulations may have focussed one or two minds.

ASH, for example, has just released the results of yet another YouGov poll. I haven't seen the national results yet but I've seen the press release issued by Fresh (formerly Smokefree North East) and the UK version will be in a very similar vein, I'm sure.

Here's a taste:

Tobacco companies should not be able to influence health policy and should declare what they spend on promotion and lobbying government - that is the view of the North East public in new figures released for World No Tobacco Day (May 31).

The findings from YouGov show most adults do not trust the tobacco industry and believe public health policies should be protected from the influence of multinational tobacco corporations ...

The independent 2014 SmokefreeYouGov poll, commissioned by Action on Smoking and Health found:

– Nearly half (43%) of North East adults think the government’s activities to limit smoking are not doing enough
– Only 9% of North East adults agree or strongly agree that the tobacco industry can be trusted to tell the truth.
– 77% of North East adults support the idea that government health policy should be protected from the influence of the tobacco industry.
– 78% of North East adults agree or strongly agree that tobacco companies should be required to disclose the amount spent on lobbying politicians, front groups and promoting their products

The Northumberland Echo has the story here: North-East public 'distrustful' of tobacco industry. It includes a quote from me.

I'll be interested to see how much coverage the poll gets. Disparaging the tobacco industry is hardly news these days.

I'm curious to see whether it gets overshadowed by a statement from the first of a two-part documentary on smoking that goes out on BBC2 tomorrow night.

The BBC is promoting the programme as hard as it can and the comment (concerning a substantial increase in the price of cigarettes) has excited a number of local radio stations.

Cynics might conclude it's part of a well choreographed attack on tobacco days before the Queen's Speech and the start of the consultation.

I'm not a conspiracy theorist, as you know, but I'll have more to say about this in the morning.

Plain packaging? No prime minister!

Eights weeks ago, on April 3, public health minister Jane Ellison announced the Government was "minded" to introduce plain packaging of tobacco.

Her statement followed the publication of the Chantler Review, a report whose many flaws I highlighted here. Government would publish regulations and there would be a "final short consultation", added Ellison.

Anticipating this outcome Forest built a new micro site that allows opponents of plain packaging to send a letter to David Cameron, the architect of the mess the Government has got itself into.

We intended to launch it to coincide with the start of the "final short consultation". Instead there has been a deafening (and welcome!) silence from government – apart from a brief comment by David Cameron in response to a question from Labour MP Alex Cunningham – which left us with a great campaign tool but no peg on which to promote it.

Well, we can't wait any longer. There is speculation that in order to demonstrate its commitment to plain packaging, appease the Lib Dems and get Labour off his back, the prime minister will include the policy in next week's Queen's Speech.

We are therefore asking you to visit the No Prime Minister website today and send the following letter to Number Ten. It reads:

Dear Prime Minister,

I am writing to express my opposition to plain packaging of tobacco.

A four-month government consultation in 2012 resulted in over 665,000 responses, with a substantial majority (427,888) opposed to the policy. I urge you to respect the outcome of that consultation which members of the public responded to in good faith.

There is no credible evidence that children start smoking because of the packaging, or that 'plain' packaging will deter children from smoking. Speculation and conjecture are no substitute for hard facts.

Before pressing ahead with legislation I urge you to wait until government has studied the impact of the tobacco display ban, which will not be fully implemented until 2015, and the introduction of larger health warnings which are being introduced in 2016 as part of the EU's revised Tobacco Products Directive.

I imagine you are fed up having your views ignored by the mainstream parties, which is why so many people voted (or were tempted to vote) for Ukip last week.

Nevertheless, I urge you to support this initiative and make your views known – again. We must not give up or other products will surely follow – alcohol, sugary drinks, convenience food – together with more policies designed to denormalise a legal consumer product.

To visit the No Prime Minister website click here or on the images above and below.

Please do it NOW! It takes less than a minute to enter your details and submit the letter.

PS. I can reveal that although the No Prime Minister website is only now being officially launched it has been live and accessible to visitors to the Hands Off Our Packs and Forest websites for several weeks.

In that time THOUSANDS of people have consented to write to David Cameron. Please follow their example and add your name to a list that is growing every day.

Forest at the ConHome conference

Further to my previous post, the main reason I attended the ConHome conference on Saturday was to promote the latest phase of the Hands Off Our Packs campaign.

Venue was the Institute of Mechanical Engineers at One Birdcage Walk, close to Parliament Square.

We booked a stand and were given a position just outside the marble hall and gallery on the lower ground floor where delegates were served morning coffee, lunch and afternoon tea.

We unveiled our new campaign banners, distributed flyers and other information, and invited delegates to sign a letter to David Cameron opposing plain packaging.

I'm pleased to say our campaign attracted a lot of interest. Visitors to the stand included Simon Richards, director of The Freedom Association (pictured above); Oliver Cooper, national chairman of Conservative Future; and the great Harry Phibbs who hung on to his marginal seat on Hammersmith and Fulham Council last week while fellow Tories in safer seats were biting the dust.

In the main theatre where the key speeches and debates were taking place every delegate was given a 'No, Prime Minister' campaign pack to read and digest.

I'll have more information about the campaign, and how you can help, later this week. Watch this space.

Too many technocrats: Tories need more passion to win General Election

Just catching up on last night's election results.

Good result for Ukip; Tories and Labour neck and neck (which is a bad result for Ed Miliband); and the LibDems wiped out bar one lonely MEP.

I'll leave the analysis to others but it would be fun to think we might get a Conservative/Ukip Coalition after next year's General Election.

Truth is, Ukip will continue to find it hard to translate votes into seats in Westminster unless they focus on a certain area – as the Lib Dems did very successfully for many years – and it's probably too late to adopt that tactic so close to an election.

Anyway, I was curious to hear how the Conservatives intend to tackle the Ukip issue so I spent eight long hours on Saturday attending the ConservativeHome conference in London where the final debate was 'How should we deal with Ukip?'.

After listening to MP Mark Reckless, Ryan Shorthouse (director of Bright Blue), Dr Matthew Goodwin (co-author of Revolt on the Right) and Telegraph journalist Iain Martin, I'm none the wiser.

There was a similar paucity of ideas in another session, 'What will the next Conservative manifesto look like?'

'Paucity' is a little unkind, perhaps. There were ideas, certainly, but none that I remembered after the meeting, which is pretty damning if the idea is to engage with the electorate.

There was a rather pointless and introspective debate that asked 'Is the age of mass party membership over?' but the prize for tedium went to Lord Ashcroft's polling presentation.

Of course, I am entirely alone in this because I lost count of the number of tweets on the subject.

Lord Ashcroft's polls were also widely reported by journalists who know a good story when they hear one. (I knew it was a good story, I just find polling presentations exceptionally dull and the longer they go on the more anal they become!)

The keynote speech was given by George Osborne who was the most polished speaker but little of what he said resonated.

I do remember this, though. Asked by the BBC's James Landale how the Tories would regain lost voters, Osborne replied (I paraphrase), "We have to listen to them".

How many politicians say this after a poor election result? Later in the day LBC presenter Iain Dale, who was chairing the Ukip debate, pointed out that we heard the same thing from mainstream politicians last year yet nothing changed.

Odds are the same thing will happen again and the other parties will wonder why so many people are still voting for Ukip.

The best and most memorable speech was given by Rob Halfon, MP for Harlow. He began by expressing admiration for Labour's moral mission and – though he didn't agree with their policies – the party's traditional support for the underdog.

"We need a moral mission," he said. "We are the party of aspiration and we have to reflect that in our moral crusade."

He also admired Ukip's commitment to public meetings which he said gave the party "authenticity". Social media, he said, is not enough.

He was saying, I think, that the Tories have become too technocratic and have lost contact with ordinary folk.

Ironically, Saturday's conference emphasised the problem. Far too many speakers spoke from the head not the heart. I sensed very little passion and no crusade.

For me, Lord Ashcroft's polling presentation was the nadir but there were other moments when I struggled to stay awake.

That said, the conference was very well organised. No session went on too long, the schedule was strictly adhered to, and the catering was excellent. But, boy, did it lack passion.

I know this was an event for political anoraks and grassroots party workers, but it left me a bit cold.

Outside the Westminster bubble many floating voters – those who hold the balance of power – find it hard to differentiate between the main parties.

Unless the Tories can develop and communicate a series of clear no-nonsense messages (like the one Theresa May handed out to the Police Federation last week) they will struggle to win the majority they crave.

In my next post I will reveal the main reason I was at the ConHome conference. Here's a clue:

Jon Gaunt – now on Fubar Radio

I received a message the other evening via Facebook.

I don't normally read Facebook messages. I get very few and they normally say things like, "I like you contact me to my email" or "Hello my dear one, how you doing over there?".

This one was different. It was from broadcaster and journalist Jon Gaunt:

Hi Simon long time no speak I've got a new radio show www.fubarradio.com do you fancy coming on tomorrow to talk?

You will remember that Jon was sacked by Talksport in 2008 for calling a London councillor a "Nazi" and an "ignorant pig" during a live debate. The BBC reported that 'the incident came as he interviewed Redbridge councillor Michael Stark about the authority's plans to ban smokers from fostering children'.

Via this blog and emails to Forest subscribers we did our best to support him – see A friend in need, Letter to Talksport, John Gaunt sacked by Talksport and John Gaunt: update. Unfortunately we couldn't help him save his job.

The following year Jon launched SunTalk, an internet radio show broadcast from the bowels of News International. I did several interviews for SunTalk, usually on the phone. I once attempted to speak to him above the roar of traffic at Oxford Circus. I couldn't hear a word he was saying so kept on talking until the line went dead.

On another occasion I visited him in his studio in Wapping and wrote about it here:

On this evidence presenter Jon Gaunt is rather more mellow than his TalkSport persona. And there is no comparison with his aggressive stage act which I found quite uncomfortable when I saw it in St Albans earlier this year.

He sounds like he's having the time of his life, surrounded by colleagues who are getting a huge buzz from running their own mini radio station. And as a columnist on the paper, he's secure in the knowledge that he's unlikely to get fired for speaking out of turn.

I hope that News International sees this as a long-term initative because there's no doubt that it will take time - years, perhaps - to build a reasonable audience. A lot of people are still suspicious of internet radio and the technical problems I experience when trying to listen to other internet radio stations are a serious turn-off.

Sadly SunTalk was pulled after only a year and little was heard of Jon until his name popped up in association with the Police Federation and MP Andrew Mitchell.

Now, after three years in the "radio wilderness", he's joined Fubar, another internet radio station, where he has a talk show every Saturday from 10.00am.

Yesterday's guests included Richard Littlejohn, Katy Hopkins, Peter Hitchens, Peter Oborne and, er, me, so I was in good company.

I'm fairly sure, though, I was the only person interviewed whilst standing beneath a tree sheltering from the rain in St James' Park, London.

The magic of radio, eh?

For further information about Fubar click here.

Do the right thing, Dave, just say no!

Meet Dave, star of Forest's latest initiative against plain packaging to be unveiled at the ConservativeHome conference in London tomorrow.

Dave is an ex-smoker and like many former smokers he's distanced himself from the habit, doing nothing to stop the denormalisation of smokers and demonstrating little empathy for those who still light up, as he once did.

Dave was famously absent in 2006 when colleagues voted in favour of a comprehensive smoking ban, denying pubs and clubs the obvious and more reasonable option of separate smoking rooms. He also went missing when colleagues voted to ban smoking in cars with children, having previously expressed reservations about legislation.

In opposition Dave's party opposed a ban on the display of tobacco in shops. In power they enforced it. No surprise then that having rejected plain packaging following a public consultation in 2012, Dave did another U-turn. In November 2013 he announced a new review on plain packaging and appointed a leading paediatrician, Sir Cyril Chantler, to conduct it.

Sir Cyril's report was published in April and to no-one's surprise this pillar of the medical establishment recommended the introduction of standardised packs. Read the report with an open mind, however, and the decision is as baffling as it is predictable.

For example, the Review:

• states it only considered the public health aspects of standardised packaging. It took no account of the effects on the UK economy, consumers or illicit trade.

• says it is not possible to prove that standardised packaging would reduce smoking and that, if it was introduced, it would be almost impossible to measure any effect.

• states it is too early to draw definitive conclusions about the impact of plain packaging in Australia, that data is only just becoming available, and that any impacts may take time to materialise.

• accepts the findings of past studies of standardised packaging where known flaws and limitations are excused as “necessary constraints on study design”. However studies commissioned by the tobacco industry from respected independent bodies like KPMG are dismissed altogether.

• says that branded goods inevitably have a “spillover” effect on children. If this argument is accepted it signals a slippery slope for other products such as alcohol, food and sugary drinks.

• describes cigarettes as a “badge product which is conspicuously consumed while making a statement about the smoker’s image and identity”. In fact, there are relatively few places where smoking is allowed in public, fewer people are smoking, and those that do are increasingly demonised.

• confuses “packaging design” with “product design” and “advertising and marketing” – arguing that they work in similar ways. Experts in these fields disagree, knowing that these are specialised areas that work in very different ways.

• confuses previous research and studies for its own aims. An experiment where children said that carrots in McDonalds packaging tasted better than those in plain packaging is held up as “proof that branding affects consumption”. This statement is incorrect because the experiment didn’t test for any increased desire amongst the children to consume carrots, whether in branded packaging or not.

• declares that more than 600,000 responses were received during the original 2012 consultation. It failed to mention that the overwhelming majority were against standardised packaging.

The Review is also full of phrases like “probable”, “likely”, “balance of evidence” and “intuitive plausibility”. These describe speculation and guesswork. They do not describe evidence and measurement.

Yet despite these serious flaws Dave's government immediately announced that it was "minded" to introduce legislation after a "final short consultation".

To cut a long story short, this entire charade is the result of Dave’s biggest weakness. He appears to have no strong opinion, no guiding compass, on this and many other issues.

Yes, there was political pressure from Labour. But instead of standing firm – opponents can smell weakness and indecision a mile off – Dave dug himself the largest hole he could and stood on the edge, inviting his opponents to push him in.

They didn't have to push too hard. Teetering on the precipice it took only a few words from Sir Cyril and Dave was diving headlong into another fine mess of own making.

Reports suggest that Dave is lukewarm about plain packaging and unconvinced by the argument it will stop children smoking. In which case, why proceed with a policy that divides Conservative MPs and public opinion? (Almost two-thirds of the 645,000 responses to the 2012 consultation opposed plain packaging.)

Forest has booked a stand at the ConHome conference in London tomorrow where we will unveil the latest phase of our long running campaign against plain packaging.

In particular we will explain to delegates what they – and you – can do to persuade Dave that plain packs make no sense, politically or in terms of public health.

We'll trot out the usual arguments – won't work, nanny state, slippery slope etc etc. But we'll also make the point that if Dave wants to win next year's General Election he has to give people like me, a lifelong Conservative voter until yesterday, a positive reason to keep his party in power.

One way to do that is to stand up to nannying tyrants like Labour, the British Medical Association and unrepresentative, publicly funded lobbyists like ASH, Smokefree South West and the rest.

Earlier this year Dave announced plans to reduce the burden of regulation on UK businesses.

“This is going to be the first government in modern history that at the end of its parliamentary term has less regulation in place than there was at the beginning,” he said.

“We have identified 3,000 regulations we are going to scrap and we’ve already got rid of 800 of them.”

Why, then, is the government creating regulations on plain packaging that current evidence suggests will have no negative impact on tobacco consumption but will inconvenience and possibly damage thousands of businesses, including retailers and packaging companies, if they are enforced?

Our message to Dave? Do the right thing. Say no to plain packaging. It's never too late!

How will government respond to Ukip's success – more regulation?

Woke up to the news that Ukip has done rather well in the local elections.

Already there is speculation about how the mainstream parties will react. One analysis – in the Independent – suggests the Coalition parties will respond with a flurry of measures in the Queen's Speech to demonstrate the Government has not run out of ideas.

Plain packaging is one of them although technically there is no reason to include it because the legislation already exists. Effectively it will be a statement of intent.

Odd, isn't it, that the Tories in particular would respond to Ukip's success by introducing a policy that Ukip (and certainly its leader) is firmly against.

Of course plain packaging is just the tip of the iceberg of over-regulation and paternalistic practices that have dogged this country for years. That's why it's so important.

Many of you may think plain packaging is a done deal and not worth fighting. I disagree. There's a lot at stake and much to play for.

Over 650,000 people responded to the public consultation on plain packaging in 2012. Almost two-thirds of them opposed the policy. That must never be forgotten.

Over the next few days I will reveal what more you can do to help in the run up to the Queen's Speech and the "short final consultation" the Government has said it will conduct but has yet to announce.

This battle is far from over. Watch this space.

Lady Gaga, Ukip and the Demon Barber of Fleet Street

Just back from the polling station in the village hall.

I won't say how I voted but before I went I watched Jeremy Paxman's interview with Nigel Farage which I'd recorded on Monday but hadn't seen.

The interview is already old hat (Paxman began by asking Farage: "What's your problem with Romanians?") so I was more interested in the preceding film which began with a shot of my erstwhile colleague Angela Harbutt deep in conversation with Farage in a bar (naturally).

I was trying to work out where they were when I saw the Comedy Store logo and I realised it was footage from 'A Beer and a Fag with Farage', the Forest/IEA event we hosted at last year's Conservative conference in Manchester.

(That's the second time that event has featured on national television in recent months. A clip of Farage on stage at the Comedy Store was also included in Martin Durkin's Channel 4 documentary about the Ukip leader.)

Even more interesting, my Sky+ box recording included the last few minutes of the previous programme, Lynn Barber's Celebrity Masterclass presented by Alan Yentob.

I've transcribed exactly what I heard because I thought it might interest you:

Yentob: Lynn Barber has been in the interview business for over 30 years now and her interviewees these days are getting younger and younger.

Barber: I like the fact that they somehow send me somebody who is famous to the young who I've never heard of so I have to do a crash course in Lady Gaga or whoever. The one thing I really admired about Lady Gaga, but you probably won't let me say this, is that I said 'Can I go on the balcony and smoke?' and she said 'Oh, we can smoke in here' and she very expertly did something or other with the smoke alarms. I mean she actually knew what to do to disable smoke alarms and I wish now I'd asked her how you achieve that.

Yentob (sounding very tongue in cheek): At this point I'm going to have to apologise for all the smoking in this film. I did try to stop her but she, um, doesn't listen.

As it happens the 'Demon Barber of Fleet Street' came to a Forest event a few years ago and wrote an article for the Guardian that fully justified her fearsome reputation.

The headline and intro said it all – 'This party's such a drag: When smokers met up to bemoan the one-year-old ban, Lynn Barber found the company made her choke - David Hockney excepted'.

I've just read it for the first time in almost six years and although it doesn't paint Forest in a very good light, it's interesting to note who our speakers were (I'd completely forgotten):

I hoped the speeches would bring illumination and they sort of did. The speakers were Simon Clark, director of Forest, Philip Davies, a Tory MP who supports smoking even though he doesn't smoke himself, and then - greeted with a cheer - Nigel Farage of Ukip who smokes 50 a day ...

Then we had a speech from the martyr of the cause, Hamish Howitt, who runs a pub in Blackpool and has had 22 prosecutions with another nine to come because he loves his regulars, who are all old and blind and disabled, and can't bear to stop them lighting up. He was sweet but also, I thought, doomed.

Presumably the party was meant to inspire us poor huddled masses to rise up against our oppressors, man the barricades and charge the gun emplacements or at least to write to our MPs. But frankly, we are a raggle-taggle, defeated army, never very disciplined at the best of times, and if it means getting into bed with Ukip, I think I'll pass.

Click here to read the full article.