Have you been following the election in New Zealand? In January I wrote:
If anyone is hoping that the resignation of New Zealand prime minister Jacinda Ardern might signal a change in tobacco policy, don't hold your breath.
The law that will make it an offence to sell tobacco to anyone born on or after January 1, 2009, has already been passed by the New Zealand Parliament so it would be a surprise if it was reversed, even if the governing party (Labour) was to lose the general election later this year.
The purpose of that post (New Zealand - meet the new boss, same as the old boss?) was to query whether a change of government might prompt a change of policy.
I wasn't hugely optimistic, pointing out that:
Christopher Luxon, leader of the centre right National Party, is already on record saying he is "broadly supportive" of Labour's plan so don't expect much change there.
If there is a tiny flicker of hope it probably rests on there being a hung parliament in which the National Party can only govern with the support of smaller parties like ACT.
Nine months later Labour has been heavily defeated and Luxon is about to become prime minister.
Intriguingly, however, results suggest the National party will probably require the support of ACT, the ‘libertarian’ party whose leader David Seymour last year tweeted:
Labour’s authoritarian prohibition of tobacco has been signed up to by every party except ACT. Prohibition has never worked and it always has serious unintended consequences.
In January the Sunday Times even reported that Seymour ‘would seek to reverse Labour’s anti-smoking legislation if his party gains office'.
“This has gone beyond a public health initiative to a public control initiative,” he said.
Realistically, I would be surprised if tobacco policy is a hill Seymour will choose to die on.
Nevertheless, if the National party does need ACT's support, the issue should at least be on the table for discussion.
Either way, Sunak would be well advised to watch developments closely.
The new law may not have been a major election issue in a country where it won’t have any direct effect on consumers until January 2027, but nor did it provide the incumbent Labour Party with any sort of bounce in the polls.
Likewise, polls in the UK are largely the same as they were before the party conference season so if the aim was to generate support it would seem that Sunak’s ill-judged policy announcement has been a failure here too.
Put simply, if the PM hoped that a war on tobacco would rally the troops and attract floating voters he was poorly advised, as Jacinda Ardern and her hapless successor Chris Hipkins have now discovered.