Seconds out

It was announced yesterday that the second reading of the Tobacco and Vapes Bill will take place in the House of Commons on Tuesday April 16.

Make a note in your diary because that’s when the Bill will be debated by MPs and the extent of Conservative opposition to the generational tobacco ban should become clearer.

As it happens, before the Bill was published on Wednesday I was asked by the Guardian to comment on the scale of opposition to the ban. They didn’t publish it, but this was my reply:

Based on what has been reported and what we've heard, we have reason to believe that up to 100 Conservative MPs may oppose the legislation, but clearly that will change after they have read the bill in full.

Whether the scale of opposition goes up or down will almost certainly depend on the Government's willingness to compromise, raising the age of sale from 18 to 21, for example, instead of imposing a ban on all future generations of adults.

Either way, many Tory MPs are undoubtedly unhappy, with one telling us privately that he was happy to pledge his 'hardline opposition' to what he called the government's 'mad cap plans'.

Of course, by delaying the introduction of the Bill until this week, days before the start of the Easter recess, and then scheduling the second reading to take place just one day after MPs have returned from their three week break (for many it will be their first day back), the Government has been quite shrewd.

One, it makes it much more difficult to lobby MPs during this crucial period because they won’t be in Westminster.

Two, whatever their views on the generational ban, how many Conservative MPs will want to rock the boat just before the local elections on May 2?

After that date, and a further drubbing by voters, more backbenchers may be inclined to mutiny in protest at Rishi’s leadership, but before then … perhaps not.

Funnily enough, I had a long chat with a Danish journalist yesterday and she also wanted to discuss the potential scale of any Tory rebellion against the generational ban.

The truth is, it’s difficult if not impossible to predict. As I told the Guardian, we know a lot of Conservative MPs are unhappy with the policy, but how will that translate in practice?

That said, momentum is everything in politics and it’s amazing how things can turn overnight, so all is not yet lost.

For avoidance of doubt, btw, I should make it clear that Forest is still strongly opposed to any increase in the age of sale of tobacco, and we won’t be changing our position.

As far as we’re concerned, when you’re 18 you are legally an adult and, just as you can purchase alcohol and do all sorts of other risky things from that age, you must be allowed to buy tobacco as well.

Nevertheless, we are aware that a ‘compromise’ has been suggested that might get the prime minister off a hook of his own making without losing too much face.

Raising the legal age of sale from 18 to 21, it is argued, would ‘protect’ young adults and provide clarity to retailers and shop workers who will otherwise face never-ending hassle as the age of sale creeps up each and every year.

Yes, it would be better than a generational ban, but compromise, like appeasement, rarely works. If you agree to raise the age of sale to 21, you have effectively conceded the ‘adult’ argument and there will still be a two-tier society, albeit not quite so pronounced.

Nor will it end with tobacco. Alcohol will be next, followed by age restrictions on other consumables considered ‘unhealthy’ or a ‘risk to health’.

Either way it’s important we have this debate, but in Parliament. Unfortunately I suspect that Government whips will do everything they can to stifle opposition to the Bill, even amendments such as this.

Put simply, the Government may say that Conservative MPs will have a free vote on this issue, but the closer we get to a vote I’m sure that pressure from whips to support the Government will intensify.

Why? Because that’s politics and no-one, least of all government, likes to lose.