Burying bad news about illicit trade

Ahead of the second reading of the Tobacco and Vapes Bill this afternoon, the Health and Social Care team has sent a 12-page briefing paper to all Labour MPs.

I have just seen a copy and it's quite interesting. There are six sections including 'Tobacco and Vapes Bill Top Lines', 'Health and Social Care Top Lines', and 'Background', plus a 'Recent Departmental Press Release'.

The Tobacco and Vapes Bill top lines, which will no doubt be repeated ad nauseam, are:

• This bill will deliver a world-leading landmark smoking ban to stop the cycle of addiction and protect children.

• This government is taking bold action to create the first smoke-free generation, clamp down on kids getting hooked on nicotine through vapes, and protect children and vulnerable people from the harms of second-hand smoke.

• Unless we act to help people stay healthy, the rising tide of ill health in our society threatens to overwhelm and bankrupt our NHS. Prevention is better than cure.

• Labour is committed to protecting children from becoming hooked on vaping, through a ban on vape advertising and sale of vapes in vending machines, in addition to restricting vape flavours, packaging and shop display.

• Smoking is still the biggest killer. It claims around 80,000 lives a year, puts huge pressure on our NHS, and costs taxpayers billions.

• Smoking costs the NHS £3.1 billion pounds a year. The cost of smoking to our economy is even greater, £18.3 billion lost in productivity every year, with smokers a third more likely to be off work sick.

• This bill will extend indoor smoking ban to certain outdoor settings such as playgrounds and outside schools and hospitals, to protect children and the most vulnerable.

Under 'Background' there are two sections, one on smoking, the other on vaping. On smoking it reads:

• Today is an important step towards our aim to create the first smoke free generation.

• Smoking is the number one preventable cause of death, disability and ill health in our country. It is responsible for one in four of all cancer deaths and kills up to two thirds of its users.

• Smoking still claims around 80,000 lives a year in the UK, putting huge pressure on our NHS, taking up appointments, scans and operations. It costs taxpayers £3.1 billion a year.

• The Government’s plans to progressively increase the age at which people can buy cigarettes, so no one born on or after 1 January 2009 can ever be legally sold cigarettes.

• The cost of smoking to the economy is £18 billion lost in productivity every year, as smokers are a third more likely to be off work sick.

• Tobacco is a uniquely harmful product, responsible for a quarter of all cancer deaths and killing up to two-thirds of its long-term users. Smoking substantially increases the risk of many major health conditions, such as strokes, diabetes, heart disease, stillbirth, dementia and asthma.

• Almost every minute, someone is admitted to hospital because of smoking. Up to 75,000 GP appointments can be attributed to smoking each month - over 100 every hour.

• There is no safe level of exposure to second-hand smoke. This is particularly true for children - whose lungs and immune system aren’t as well developed as adults - as well as
pregnant women and those with pre-existing health conditions.

• No smoker wants to harm people, but with second hand smoke, they do, and the only way to stop that is to stop smoking around others. 88% of the public are non smokers. There is no safe level of exposure to smoke. If you can smell cigarette smoke you are inhaling it.

• The Government will be given powers to extend indoor smoking ban to certain outdoor settings such as playgrounds and outside schools and hospitals, to protect children and the most vulnerable.

As you can see, the Government is at pains to list, at length, what it considers to be the 'positive' aspects of the Bill.

Leaving aside some blatant falsehoods ('There is no safe level of exposure to second-hand smoke', for example), the glaring omission is the absence of any reference to illicit trade and the impact of even more consumers being driven to the black market by creeping prohibition (ie the generational ban on the sale of tobacco).

Last month the Tobacco Manufacturers Association published the latest TMA survey of 12,000 UK consumers. It found that a record number of UK smokers bought illegal tobacco in 2024 (83% of respondents compared to 71% when the survey first ran in 2016).

According to the TMA:

The Government’s desire to pass a ‘generational ban’ on any adult born after 31 December 2008, from ever legally being able to buy tobacco, will have severe and long-lasting repercussions (62% of respondents did not think a ‘generational ban’ on buying tobacco would be enforceable) as in due course the whole UK tobacco market is pushed underground into the hands of organised criminals.

Prohibition of a legal tightly-controlled, taxed and regulated industry (which delivered over £11 billion in taxes in 2023) will be replaced by an ever-expanding illegal market, uncontrolled, untaxed and unregulated, trading in cheap unchecked, potentially contaminated products.

As the weight of responsibility for enforcing a generational ban will fall on the shoulders of retailers, the real fear is that shopworkers will have had enough and will choose to walk away from retail, rather than try and enforce a law that will bring misery to their working lives (according to the latest research from The Retail Trust 4 in 10 shopworkers want to quit their roles in retail entirely due to the soaring levels of violence and abuse that they receive).

The Government claims that the illegal tobacco market is in decline. This year’s TMA Anti-Illicit Trade Survey paints a very different picture with the purchasing of illegal tobacco becoming not only normalised, but a preferential alternative source for a growing number of consumers.

Clearly, the Government has no answer to the argument that the Tobacco and Vapes Bill could fuel illicit trade to even greater levels otherwise the Health and Social Care team would surely have included a response in its list of 'interventions' to Government and Opposition.

Instead, MPs will today vote on a major piece of legislation and the Government is doing its very best to bury a significant argument against the Bill that could result in a significant loss of revenue whilst harming thousands of legitimate retailers.

Go figure.