New Zealand - meet the new boss, same as the old boss?

If anyone is hoping that the resignation of New Zealand prime minister Jacinda Ardern might signal a change in tobacco policy, don't hold your breath.

The law that will make it an offence to sell tobacco to anyone born on or after January 1, 2009, has already been passed by the New Zealand Parliament so it would be a surprise if it was reversed, even if the governing party (Labour) was to lose the general election later this year.

Christopher Luxon, leader of the centre right National Party, is already on record saying he is "broadly supportive" of Labour's plan so don't expect much change there.

If there is a tiny flicker of hope it probably rests on there being a hung parliament in which the National Party can only govern with the support of smaller parties like ACT.

ACT was originally the acronym for Association of Consumers and Taxpayers. A pressure group not dissimilar to the TaxPayers Alliance, it was founded in 1993 before becoming a political party and fighting its first election in 1996.

Since then the party has endured an up and down existence but in 2020 it enjoyed its best ever result with almost eight per cent of the vote and ten MPs elected to parliament (one directly, the other nine from the party list).

It remains to be seen whether ACT would consider the new tobacco law to be a deal breaker if invited to support a new government but it's worth noting that ACT's Karen Chhour called it "prohibition plain and simple", adding that "it will eventually create a black market":

"Prohibition has never worked – in any time or place – and it always has unintended consequences. The best way to wean people off tobacco is to allow the market to innovate and deliver products like vaping."

The odds are against the law being reversed but it’s not impossible. Watch this space.

See also: Jacinda Ardern's hate speech clampdown will turn New Zealand into a 'nanny state', say opponents:

New Zealand's libertarian opposition ACT party, which polls predict will enter a coalition government in the next election, criticised the move.

Fun fact: In February 2017 Jamie Whyte, who was leader of ACT for six months in 2014, joined the Institute of Economic Affairs as director of research. He left the role on January 1, 2019, and is currently a fellow of the IEA.

Below: Tweet from David Seymour, leader of ACT, December 14, 2022

Update: Jacinda Ardern’s successor is set to be Chris Hipkins who is currently education minister. Prior to that he was interim health minister during the pandemic.