ONS to reveal small increase in smoking rates during the pandemic – The Sun

The Office for National Statistics normally publishes its annual 'Adult smoking habits in the UK' in the summer.

The last figures were published in July 2020 and revealed that in 2019 '14.1% of people aged 18 years and above smoked cigarettes, which equates to around 6.9 million people in the population'.

The 2020 figures have been delayed by the pandemic but, according to the Sun, 'are expected to show a small increase in the number of smokers in Britain for the first time since the 1970s' when they are published this week.

But wait! Didn't ASH insist that ‘A million people have stopped smoking since the Covid pandemic hit Britain.’

Indeed they did.

Needless to say (and despite our scepticism) ASH's extraordinary claim was widely reported by credulous broadcasters at home and abroad including the BBC (Coronavirus: Smokers quit in highest numbers in a decade), Sky News, ITV News and CNN (1 million people in the UK have quit smoking during the pandemic, survey shows).

ASH's calculations were also reported by the Telegraph, the Independent, London Evening Standard and many more.

The Government too was happy to quote the contentious figures without quibble, noting 'Action on Smoking and Health (ASH) has calculated that more than a million people in the UK stopped smoking during the coronavirus (COVID-19) lockdown.' (Surge in smokers trying to quit see increased success rates in 2020).

Anyway I look forward to seeing the figures when they are finally revealed, and ASH's response. But if you're hoping for some humility following what appears to be a substantial miscalculation, don't hold your breath.

Instead expect demands for immediate Government action to reduce the smoking rates to pre-pandemic levels.

As for that 'one million smokers have quit' claim, best forgotten, eh?

Update: ASH says the 2020 figures will be published tomorrow (Tuesday). Watch this space.

Update: See 'Smoking prevalence in the UK and the impact of data collection changes: 2020'.

The Sun appears to have got it wrong. On the other hand, the estimated drop in the smoking rate reported by the Office for National Statistics is described (by the ONS themselves) as "unrealistic" and "implausible".

Confused?!