Fake news: the Irish are smoking less during lockdown
Saturday, December 5, 2020 at 9:37 A report in Ireland caught my eye this week. According to the Longford Leader:
Irish people are drinking and smoking less and eating healthier according to new research from Ireland's statistics office.
The report was based on the Social Impact of COVID-19 Survey November 2020: Well-being and Lifestyle under Level 5 Restrictions, published by the Central Statistics Office.
Actually, it’s quite interesting because it covers a range of issues including lifestyle, compliance and ‘aspects of life that have changed for the better’.
Inevitably however my eye was drawn to the section on smoking. Headlined ‘More respondents reducing tobacco consumption’, it read:
In November, a greater proportion of respondents that consume tobacco products reported that their tobacco consumption was lower than pre-COVID-19 levels when compared to the April rate (17.4% versus 8.6%). There was a small decrease in the percentage of respondents that said their consumption had Increased, 30.5% in April to 27.4% in November.
Or, to put it another way, in November 27.4% of respondents said their consumption of tobacco had increased, compared with 30.5% in April, while 17.4% said their consumption had decreased, compared with 8.6% in April.
Therefore, the statement ‘More respondents reducing tobacco consumption’ is only true in a very limited sense.
While it isn’t untrue to say that more respondents have reduced their tobacco consumption, this is only in comparison with April. What it conveniently ignores is that significantly more respondents said their consumption had increased both in April (30.5%) and November (27.4%).
Overall therefore the narrative - Irish people are smoking less as a result of lockdown - is blatantly false.
The reality is that while the November figures edged closer - 17.4% said their consumption had decreased versus 27.4% who said it had increased - the truth is that a greater number of people in Ireland were still consuming more (not less) tobacco compared with the pre-Covid period.
That’s not what government wants us to hear, of course, because it undermines the message that smokers should quit for Covid, but it’s sad to see such obvious propaganda being perpetrated by what should be an impartial body.
If the Office for National Statistics massaged a similar narrative in the UK we’d be demanding they correct it.
Talking of which, it seems unlikely that tobacco consumption during lockdown will be significantly different in the UK compared to Ireland so ASH’s claim that one million smokers have quit since the start of Covid still seems wishful thinking on their part.
I know that consumption isn’t the same as smoking rates, but with sales of tobacco apparently remaining relatively stable in the UK in 2020 it’s hard to imagine a million people have quit.
It’s worth adding that the legal sales figures have probably benefitted from the impact that lockdown had on illicit trade, but I would be surprised nevertheless if there was a huge reduction in smoking rates - above and beyond recent trends - in 2020. We’ll see.
In the meantime, remember to take with a very large pinch of salt anything tobacco control - or government - tell you about tobacco consumption during the pandemic.
There’s a very good chance it’s fake news.
Reader Comments (2)
I know that "daily life perception" is not the best way to measure smoking prevalence, but having lived abroad (Slovakia) for the good part of a year (October 2019 to August 2020) when I returned to the UK this summer, I did seem to notice that more people were smoking than in the previous one and I've also noticed that a lot more are smoking cigars lately. I could just be me and it could just be my area, but smoking patterns do seem to be different as of late. I would certainly take with a pinch of salt any suggestion that smoking has gone down.
Of course it's false. Tobacco control has always relied on propaganda to impose their incremental prohibition of smoking tobacco. Now in the age of disinformation and fake news their strategy is obscured by the abundance of totalitarian mind gangs and manipulation.