Election update: apology and prediction
Saturday, May 2, 2015 at 14:40 After a day or two away on business I've been catching up on my target seat 'friends and foes'.
By the end of the day I'll have listed 30 with ten to go before the election on Thursday. Worringly it's becoming harder and harder to find genuine 'friends' while the list of 'foes' is endless.
Granted I'm focussing on marginal and semi-marginal seats but I didn't expect to run out of cast iron 'friends', candidates who consistently oppose excessive regulations, so quickly.
Even Nick de Bois, an outspoken opponent of plain packaging, supported a ban on smoking in private vehicles carrying children. As I've said many times, I don't condone the practise but legislation, in my view, is both excessive and intrusive. Nick clearly didn't agree but I listed him as a friend nonetheless.
Elsewhere I've found examples of MPs voting against plain packaging yet opposing an amendment to the smoking ban.
Most bizarre of all was the Ukip candidate who this week 'supported' the party's policy on amending the smoking ban but also came out in favour of a ban on smoking in open air parks. Madness.
Truth is, the voting intentions of many candidates are difficult to predict and a classic example of this is Chris Skidmore.
Last week I awarded Skidmore the much sought after status of 'friend' thanks to his opposition to plain packaging.
I'd forgotten that in February last year, after meeting him on the set of the Sunday Politics West in Bristol, I labelled him "wet with a capital W":
On a personal level he was very pleasant. Before recording started he introduced himself and we had a brief chat, mostly about the weather.
We didn't talk about banning smoking in cars with children but when the producer came to take us to the studio I asked, "How are you voting on Monday?"
"For," he replied.
Fair enough. If he feels strongly and has some good arguments for a ban that are clearly his own I can accept that.
However, when asked by presenter David Garmston how he would vote, and why, a blank look came over his face. It was as if he was on autopilot.
He uttered a few platitudes but nothing to suggest he had a genuine view of his own. Going through the motions is the best way to describe it. A zombie would have shown more passion.
Crucially there was little to distinguish Skidmore's opinion from that of Jo McCarron, the Labour candidate for Kingswood, who was also on the programme.
The only real difference between them was McCarron's bright red dress. (Skidmore was wearing a suit with a white shirt and no tie. Significantly the suit was grey.)
Kingswood is a marginal seat. Unless Tory MPs like Skidmore put some clear blue ideological water between them and their opponents, how can the Conservative party hope to win an overall majority next year?
Nice chap he may be, but Chris Skidmore is wet with a capital 'W'.
See Wet with a capital 'W' – the unacceptably grey face of the parliamentary Tory party.
In hindsight I was perhaps a little harsh so I'd like to apologise. First impressions may have been deceptive.
I still think I was right to highlight the problem many floating voters will face on Thursday. How on earth they can choose between candidates when so many are indistinguishable?
Ultimately it will come down to several factors, including a presidential or X-Factor style vote-off between David Cameron and Ed Miliband. Hence my prediction.
I believe that come Thursday an unexpected number of floating voters in England will vote Conservative not for love of the party or its policies or even Cameron himself.
They will vote Conservative because in the privacy of the polling booth they will reject the thought of Miliband in Downing Street with the SNP calling the shots.
(Whether that's an accurate prognosis is neither here nor there. That's how it's being spun and that's how many people will see it.)
That's why, in spite of the polls, I believe the Tories and Lib Dems will get enough seats to form another coalition government.
Either that or the Tories will form a minority government with a confidence and supply arrangement with the Lib Dems.
I may of course be totally wrong.
Update: Daily Mail columnist Tom Utley, a long-time friend of Forest and an occasional guest at our events, has written this piece for today's paper. It's worth reading even if you don't agree with it:
Reader Comments (1)
I live in a constituency which is such a strong Labour seat that it is a prime example of why our undemocratic voting system needs to be changed. Long gone are the days when we lived in Counties or Boroughs with an identity which was decimated by boundary changes. Although I was brought up in a home where we were taught that our political leanings were private, I will never know who my parents voted for, I will be transparent. As I find a Labour government scares me, my vote in Wythenshawe/Sale East can only be a protest. I will vote UKIP. If however there was the remotest chance of a Conservative or LibDem victory, I would vote for them. In my opinion, the last five years has proved that a hung parliament works, but only if there is proportional representation.