Smoking rates: figures ignore casual smokers
Thursday, July 17, 2014 at 11:25 Following publication of research in Australia, anti-smoking campaigners are claiming that a "dramatic" 15 per cent decline in smoking rates is a result of plain packaging.
Look closely however and the figures (15.1 down to 12.8 per cent) relate to a three-year period from 2010 to December 2013.
Plain packaging was introduced in December 2012 but that seems to have escaped many commenters and journalists, deliberately or otherwise.
Truth is there was a whopping 25 per cent excise hike in Australia in 2010 (followed by a further 12.5 per cent increase on December 1, 2013 which will probably have an impact on the next set of figures).
We know smokers are sensitive to price increases (hence the flourishing black market trade in tobacco) so it seems reasonable to conclude that cost, not plain packaging, has been the primary influence on smoking rates in Australia over the last few years.
But wait. While a 15 per cent reduction in smoking rates may sound "dramatic", over three years it simply reflects an historical trend and is no more newsworthy than a similar decline in smoking rates in the UK which doesn't have standardised packs. Not yet, anyway.
For further reading check out this report in the FT: Australia smoking rates tumble after plain packaging shift.
See also BAT Australia's response (Smoking rates underestimated) which includes the interesting point that the Australian survey ignores casual smokers who represent one in five consumers.
Include these smokers and the smoking rate in Australia jumps to 16.5 per cent of the population.
I suspect too that many smokers simply don't admit to smoking. Here's some anecdotal evidence.
On Tuesday night at The Freedom Dinner we commissioned Dan Donovan to take photographs of guests, as we always do. (Click here for the results.)
Yesterday Dan passed on the remarkable information that several guests at the Forest Freedom Dinner (my emphasis) asked him not to take pictures of them smoking!!!!
Why, I don't know. It may be guilt or fear that in today's highly judgemental society they may be discriminated against (passed over for promotion, perhaps) or vilified in some other way.
The simple fact is this: there is a significant number of people out there who are probably casual smokers and don't want anyone, other than their immediate friends, to know about it.
So they ask the photographer at a smoker-friendly event not to take pictures of them smoking. (Note: this is the first time it's happened at a Forest event, which is why Dan mentioned it, so it's a new phenomenon.)
Likewise, when asked by researchers 'Do you smoke?', what do you think their likely response is?
I suspect there are hundreds of thousands - possibly millions - of casual smokers who go under the radar because they keep it to themselves.
What an extraordinary state of affairs.
PS. Re the Australian story I also recommend this post by Chris Snowdon, Dogs bark, cows moo, ASH lies, which I will come back to in my next post.
Reader Comments (6)
The real figures for smoking from EU Eurobarometer is 21% smoke cigarettes, another 7% are cigar and pipe smokers. Plus 3 million "secret smokers," about 8% of the population. So over 1 in 3 of us will have a puff this year.
"There are some 3.02 million Brits who class themselves as "non-smokers", but admit to having the occasional cigarette or having a "puff" of someone else's cigarette, according to research by Sainsbury's Life Insurance."
You are quite correct that smokers do not admit their pastime. A survey of Western Scottish ladies found 25% of smokers misled doctors and nurses on their smoking status. Most misclassification in scientific studies is 1%-4% at least.
http://daveatherton.wordpress.com/2011/07/03/britains-secret-smokers/
There has been a paper published about the problem of people not telling the truth in New Zealand smoking surveys. As you note, people are now worried that being a smoker may damage their livelihoods. It's easier to to lie all the time rather than figure out when it's safe not to. If you are used to telling doctors, hospitals and employers you don't smoke, you will eventually automatically give that response to anyone who asks.
Political nannying is a turn off & a misuse of tax.
@ Dave Atherton
Most people are not comfortable with telling a barefaced lie (unless they work for Tobacco Control, that is), but equally, most people will feel ok about scaling down the unpalatable truth; it's not as bad as lying, after all. So I suspect, Dave, that most of those 'casual' smokers that you refer to in your linked post are more likely to be pretty full-on smokers who won't admit to it.
Whilst political parties are enslaved to the health lobby, there is a serious democratic deficit.
Yes, and the Australian contraband rate is very significant indeed. Hasn't there been an estimated 45% increase in contraband consumption over the last 12 months? (Please correct me if I'm wrong.) Unlike contraband in Europe, a lot of Australian contraband consists of home grown tobacco known as "chop chop" - so, it's probably pretty decent stuff and unlike the crap going around the sink estates in the UK.
Finally, it would be interesting to examine the amount of home grown in this country as well. I'm quite amazed by the numbers I know personally who are doing it.