Scottish independence – waiting for a referendum won't help the nationalists
Friday, January 13, 2012 at 12:47 Just back from Ireland.
Travelling in the opposite direction were Nick Clegg and Alex Salmond who were attending this morning’s meeting of the British-Irish Council at Dublin Castle.
I imagine that Salmond would like it to be called the British-Irish-Scottish Council and in a few years he may get his wish.
Personally I can't wait for a referendum on Scottish independence – the sooner the better – but if Salmond wants it to coincide with the 700th anniversary of the Battle of Bannockburn in 1314, good luck to him. Who cares?
Actually, I think a two-and-a-half year wait will work against the nationalists. The arguments in favour of an independent Scotland are so few compared to the arguments in favour of a genuinely United Kingdom that the inherent weakness of the nationalists' case will become increasingly clear the longer the debate lasts.
That of course is one of the reasons why Salmond wants a fallback position so he can still claim victory, assuming he loses the vote on independence.
Hence, if the SNP Government in Holyrood has its way, the electorate will be asked two questions. The first will cover full independence. The second will offer an alternative – greater powers for the Scottish Parliament including full fiscal autonomy ('devolution max' or, in Irish terms, 'Home Rule') with the rest of the UK still expected to subsidise the cost of defending Scotland's borders or bailing the country out if its economy (or banking system) collapses.
Internationally Scotland would continue to enjoy the benefits of belonging to the United Kingdom – which include a seat at the top table of global politics – benefits it could only dream about as a 'independent' nation.
Sounds great, doesn't it? Scotland effectively separates from the rest of the UK but decides not to leave home or divorce. Legally we are still bound to our fragile, independent-minded partner and there is nothing we can do about it.
Thanks but no thanks.
Simon Clark
Food for thought.
An article in the Telegraph this week (An independent Scotland would struggle for AAA rating) prompted the following comment on Facebook:
"More Telegraph baloney. Many Scots would say we don't give a toss about AAA if we can be independent from London."
Typically this particular Scot (an old school friend from St Andrews) hasn't lived in Scotland for (I am guessing) 20 years. According to his Facebook entry he worked in America before moving to Adelaide, South Australia, where he still lives.
This morning he wrote: "I will stay in Australia. We have equally awful TV, but at least the weather is nice."
Doesn't sound like he'll be heading 'home' any time soon, does it? And nor will hundred of thousands of fellow ex-pats, independence or no. And yet, as far as I know, they will all be allowed to vote in a referendum that decides the future of a country they no longer choose to live in.
If Salmond has his way 16 and 17-year-olds in Scotland will also be eligible to vote. (You can't buy alcohol or tobacco but you can decide the future of the 300-year-old United Kingdom.)
Fingers crossed, this is where Salmond may come unstuck. It's one thing to hold a referendum (with a mandate) at a time of your choosing, but to change the voting system (without a mandate) smacks of something else.
Accusing David Cameron of "interfering" is pretty rich too. Cameron is prime minister of the United Kingdom and whether Salmond likes it or not Scotland is still part of the UK.
For how much longer remains to be seen but imagine if Cameron showed no interest in Scotland's future. The nationalists would attack him for that as well.
I like Alex Salmond. He's a shrewd if increasingly smug politician. He's clever, but not as clever as he thinks he is. Time will tell.
Reader Comments (6)
"I like Alex Salmond."
Face meet palm.
I applaud Alex S in getting his 'spade is a spade' message across and sticking by his guns - seemingly that is what the majority of Scots apparantly want.
I detest the man for obvious reasons; lies, corruptness, propaganda - seemingly what the majority of Scots haven't yet realised.
Personally, I believe our politicians will do whatever they wish with our beloved UK, seeing that public opinion has always been quashed by the powers that be, and strong whips live for their survival.
So much for democracy........
An interesting point which I read somewhere recently was that if Scotland were to break away from the union they may well not have the possibility of using Sterling any more. The Euro? Hardly the best time to join the Eurozone, I would have thought.
Simon / Helen,
Increasingly smug doesn't begin to do him justice.
Please do not be swayed by the rubbish put out by the mainstream press or the SNP. Much of this has to do with the "Government" paying for four page smoking cessation adverts. Even the Record has been seduced by that revenue stream.
No Helen, the vast majority of Scots know perfectly well what a devious p...k he is. The SNP won the election with 25% of registered voters. The other 25% went for the opposition, while a fraction under 50% sat on their hands.
Get one thing very clear. We know freezing domestic rates for a further 5 years is unsustainable, ditto guranteed home health care, ditto free bus passes for everyone over age 60, ditto subsidies for air travel from the islands. We know it's financial madness and we know this hits youth employment.
But they did offer all these goodies and let's be straight, with 22% of the population aged 60 or over, these things matter. Another factor is the guy demolished the competition at the First Ministers debate.
Too many people English & Scots & Welsh & Irish have died fighting for Great Britain for this to be decided by a couple of transparent wastrels, both sides of the border.
The prospect of an independent Scotland has yet to be grasped by those who smoke. If they ever get control of tobacco duties we can expect exponential rises in prices. 27% of the adult population in Scotland.
Give them the power to screw us. No Chance!
Lou - I take your point.
God knows how bad it needs to get before our non-voting electorate decide to visit the polls.
To be honest, I don't think they ever will. They have lost all trust in politicians, many I know included, and who can blame them?
The do-gooders preach the success of their fiddled surveys to gain funding and MSM exposure; the citizens take no notice and adapt to suit their lifestyles.
If our Governments continue to preach nanny-state policies, then I'm afraid they're on a course for 'a hiding'.
Time will tell - and so does history.
Whatever else, the man is an astute politician, and this is his dream.. he will stop at nothing to achieve it regardless if it a disaster for the country and people he proports to love. Get ready to see 'Braveheart' screened on wraparound...
He has only one redeeming feature, the wonderful quote when Gorden Brown bottled out of calling a general election. Dubbing him 'The Feartie from Fife' he said ( Brown) must be the only Prime Minister NOT to call an election in case he won. Priceless.
As to people who have left Scotland, yet still wax lyrical .. as my Dad put it... 'They leave (Scotland) as soon as they can, then spend their lives singing about it.. and If they were all to return home, it'd sink under the weight .. ! He's a card, my Dad... :-)