Establishment elite can sleep easy

Paul Goodman, editor of Conservative Home, has a point.

Where, he asks in the wake of the Newport West by-election, is the voter uprising against establishment elites?

Good question.

Labour retained the seat, the Conservatives came second, UKIP increased its vote slightly but there was little sign of an 'anti-establishment protest', and 'the smaller parties’ totals are derisory':

So, come to think of it, is that of all the contestants. Turnout is down by over a third – from 43,438 at the last general election to 23,515. That’s poor, of course, but by no means exceptionally low: nothing like the 18.2 per cent record low at Manchester Central in 2012.

In other words, for all the political shenanigans in Westminster, don't expect a revolution now or in the future.

It's not the British way and our despicable governing class know that, which is why they will continue to take advantage of our general good nature.

Take my own constituency. Fifty-four per cent voted to leave the EU. Despite that our local Conservative MP has voted consistently to thwart Brexit.

I've heard nothing to suggest he will be challenged or deselected and it's such a safe seat that I fully expect him to retain it at the next election, assuming he stands on the Tory ticket.

Btw, Matthew Evans, the Conservative candidate in the Newport West by-election, is pro-Brexit and a smoker (an unapologetic one) so it's a great pity he didn't get elected.

We need all the support we can get in parliament and Matthew is a familiar face at our annual party conference events.

He's also the proud owner of a Forest ashtray like this one. Need I say more?

Forest – voice and friend of the smoker (and vaper)

A new report came out on Monday.

The Guardian (E-cigarettes do not normalise smoking for young people – study) gave it the most prominence, online at least.

Forest was invited to comment and the paper surprisingly used the full quote:

Simon Clark, the director of the smokers’ group Forest, said: “The study shows there is nothing to fear from the growth of vaping.

“The results support our view that government should ease restrictions on e-cigarette advertising. It’s time too for local authorities to lead by example and lift restrictions on the use of e-cigarettes in the workplace and other public areas.

“Young people’s negative views on smoking also suggest the health risks are very well understood. Now they need to be taught about choice and personal responsibility so when they are adults they can make informed decisions without unnecessary state intervention.”

The Press Association also ran the quote, albeit an edited version:

“The study shows there is nothing to fear from the growth of vaping.

“The results support our view that Government should ease restrictions on e-cigarette advertising.”

In what appears to be a direct reaction to my comment about advertising, the PA included this response from ASH:

Deborah Arnott, chief executive of Action on Smoking and Health, said the charity did not support lifting restrictions on e-cigarette advertising.

She added: “The current regulations are working, regular vaping by young people remains low, and that’s the way it needs to stay.”

In the UK the number of smokers switching to vaping has slowed dramatically in recent years. The current figure is 3.2 million, almost half of them dual users, up from 2.9 million three years ago when 1.5 million were dual users.

We are now told that 20,000 smokers are switching annually to vaping in the UK, which doesn't seem very many to me.

Leaving aside the elephant in the room (the fact that many smokers enjoy smoking and don't want to switch or quit), is it any surprise that vaping rates are no longer rising as fast as they were when the marketing and advertising of e-cigarettes is so heavily regulated?

Having come late to the party ASH wants to be seen as an active advocate of vaping. They say they want more smokers to switch (en route to quitting nicotine altogether, a qualification they are less vocal about) but they don't support lifting some of the current regulations which they say "are working".

Arguably this is true in terms of youth vaping rates but it clearly isn't true in relation to the number of smokers who are currently switching to e-cigarettes.

Ironically, Deborah Arnott will be a speaker at the E-Cigarette Summit in Washington on Monday April 29 and I expect her to address the E-Cigarette Summit in London in November where she seems to be a permanent fixture.

Forest, meanwhile, is repeatedly ignored by the organisers of these and other pro-vaping events, presumably because of our refusal to abandon the rights and interests of adults who choose to smoke.

In contrast the media appreciates we have something to contribute – as the consumers' champion – and we will continue to speak out and conduct research on behalf of both smokers and vapers.

Update: Someone long associated with the vaping industry sent me a text on Tuesday:

Much enjoyed your contribution to Guardian piece re youth smoking. Vaping industry owes you a big thank you.

My pleasure!

Out and about in Edinburgh

And so to Edinburgh where I spent most of my time looking for a smoker-friendly venue to host a Forest event later this year.

Last summer we hosted a successful dinner at the National Museum of Scotland. The private dining room and rooftop terrace comfortably accommodated 20 people but this year, as part of our 40th anniversary programme, we want to invite a few more.

Venues must be smoker-friendly and it's hard to find somewhere that meets all our requirements. It was refreshing however to visit places where smoking is considered entirely normal and no-one bats an eyelid when you explain why you need a smoking terrace.

I had appointments with several hotels and restaurants that have smoking areas (one even had a smoking 'room' that was too small, sadly, for our purpose) and although none were perfect one might work well on a fine summer evening. (Not sure what we'd do if it rained but the events manager seemed pretty relaxed.)

The main feature was a two-acre rooftop garden with two terraces where we could have a drinks reception followed by dinner in a permanent covered marquee.

It was recommended by a friend from university who now works as a PR consultant in Edinburgh. We met to check out another venue and the discussion inevitably turned to people we both knew from our time in Aberdeen.

It was disconcerting to know that people I can only visualise as 18 and 19-year-old students (because I haven't seen them since) are now almost as old as me.

While I was in Edinburgh I also saw Brian Monteith. We met for dinner at Petit Paris (above), a French bistro opposite my hotel in the Grassmarket.

Readers of this blog will know that I've known Brian for the best part of 40 years. From 1996-98 we even shared an office in Leith.

At the time Brian was Forest's spokesman in Scotland and I was a freelance journalist. In 1999, having led the campaign against devolution, he became a member of the Scottish Parliament but stood down in 2007 and is now a columnist for the Scotsman, Edinburgh Evening News and City AM.

Last year Forest published his report, The McNanny State, and no event marking Forest's 40th anniversary in Scotland would be complete without him. If we can make it work we'll make an announcement by the end of the month.

St Andrews day

On Sunday I visited St Andrews where I spent six years at school.

In 1969 my father's job took him to Dundee so we moved from Maidenhead in Berkshire to Wormit, a village that overlooks the River Tay in north Fife.

I spent nine months at the local primary school before my year group moved to Madras College, the nearest secondary school in Fife.

At 8.15 each day the school bus would pick us up and take us to St Andrews, twelve miles away.

After school activities – cricket, hockey and drama – were more problematic because it meant using the far less direct local bus service.

Sometimes I would hitch a lift home from a complete stranger. Outside of school hours it was often the quickest way to get home and no-one thought anything of it.

Talking of drama, in my final year I was cast in a Pinteresque short play that required the two leading characters (of which I was one) to sit and ruminate in a graveyard.

For a school play the subject matter was quite challenging. I don't recall too much about it but I do remember a scene that involved a dead baby.

Prior to the three-night run the director (our English teacher) thought it would be a good idea if we rehearsed among some actual gravestones.

As a result we ended up performing al fresco in the cathedral grounds (above).

But back to the present. After a very pleasant morning walking around town and down by the old harbour, I drove down the coast to Anstruther, a small fishing village I have written about before.

I'm constantly amazed by how many people have never visited this part of the world. On a warm sunny day it's lovely, honest!

Below: the harbours at St Andrews (top) and Anstruther (below)

Why I back Dundee City Football Club

Just back from Scotland where I spent four days combining business with 'pleasure'.

I began by driving 430 miles to watch my team, Dundee United, play Queen of the South. Naturally they lost, 2-1.

It's a far cry from United’s Eighties heyday when they won the league, reached the semi-final of the European Cup and the final of the UEFA Cup.

On Saturday I made a small contribution to a fund that is aiming to raise £75,000 for a statue of the famously irascible Jim McLean who managed the club from 1971 to 1993 when he became chairman.

To put United's current plight in perspective, when McLean was manager he once refused to pay the players a bonus after they beat Motherwell 6-1 in the belief that they could and should have played better.

Supporters today can only dream of results and performances like that. Frankly, I'm pleased with any win, whether it be 1-0 over Dunfermline, or 2-1 against Alloa.

On Friday Scotsman journalist Alan Pattullo, a Dundee fan, noted that it is 25 years since McLean 'last sat fuming in the dugout'.

I agree with him that a 'Jim McLean statue would be fitting tribute to one of our greatest coaches'. Silly though it sounds, the former United manager is responsible for some of the happiest days of my life.

Although I'm far less involved than I used to be, I shall never forget the day in May 1983 when United won the Scottish League championship for the first and only time in their history.

On the last day of the season three clubs could still win the league – Celtic, Aberdeen and United. There were several permutations but if United won their game the title was theirs.

There was a delicious irony in the fact that United's final match, which they won 2-1 in front of a sell-out crowd (I was there!), was at the home of their near neighbours and fiercest rivals, Dundee.

When I say 'near neighbours' I'm not joking. As many football supporters know, the two 'stadiums' (I'm being generous) are separated by just 100 yards.

Frankly, in the modern age, it makes no sense for a city the size of Dundee to have two senior football clubs, each with an average attendance of around 5,000 and both struggling on and off the field.

As a supporter I appear to be alone in this but I have long thought the two clubs should merge, but it has to be a proper merger not a takeover of one club by the other.

There has to be a new stadium (costly, I know) and a whole new identity.

Some years ago a web and graphic designer created a 'visual identity and fan infographic for Dundee City Football Club, a conceptual SPFL side created by the merger of Dundee FC and Dundee United FC'.

I loved the concept but whenever a real merger is mentioned it always get shot down by supporters of both clubs who see only problems rather than opportunity. A bit like Brexit, in fact.

Meanwhile nothing would give me greater pleasure than seeing Dundee relegated in a play-off with United at the end of the current season.

Having been relegated in 2016 following a defeat by our 'near neighbours', the football gods owe us that, surely.

Below: In the background, 100 yards from Tannadice, lies Dens Park, home of Dundee.

Simon Chase, friend of Forest, RIP

I was very sorry to hear that cigar expert Simon Chase had died earlier this month.

For those who don’t know, Simon was a bit of a legend in cigar circles. He worked for Hunters and Frankau, importers of Cuban cigars, for over 30 years and even after his retirement in 2009 he continued to be a significant figure in the industry.

I can’t remember when we first met but I think it was in 2000 when Forest organised an event at a Cuban-themed bar off Leicester Square called Little Havana.

In those days you could hand out free cigarettes and cigars to guests (a practice that has since been outlawed) and we must have approached Hunters to donate some cigars for the occasion.

Simon went one better and arranged for them to be handed out by ‘cigar girls’. I know, I know, it sounds a bit sexist now but at the time it was a nice touch and brought a bit of glamour to the event.

In truth, Simon was a bit of a cigar snob. He didn’t much care for cigarettes and would do his best to distance the two.

Nevertheless when we celebrated Forest’s 30th anniversary in 2009 he was there to support us and very kindly presented us with a box of 30 Cuban cigars.

He attended several other Forest events but the last time I spoke to him at any length was in Cuba in 2013. We were there for the Habanos Cigar Festival and were staying at the same hotel.

On the final night there was a gala dinner in a large exhibition hall and at 11.00pm - following guest appearances by the likes of Boris Becker and Hollywood actor Danny Glover - I was surprised when this very dapper Englishman took to the vast stage to conduct what was described as the "traditional humidor auction".

I described it thus:

There were six humidors up for grabs, each one designed specially for the occasion and capable of storing hundreds of cigars of different shapes and sizes.

Encouraged by Simon, the first went to someone from the Middle East who paid €100,000. The second was bought by a man from the Far East for a similar sum.

The third and fourth humidors attracted even higher bids before the fifth went for €300,000.

After the sixth humidor had been auctioned the total stood at over one million euros, all proceeds going to the Cuban public health system.

In recent years Simon suffered from serious ill health but I was hoping he would be able to join us for Forest’s 40th anniversary dinner in June.

Sadly he won’t be with us. Instead we will raise a glass to a lovely man who dedicated his working life to tobacco and was a fantastic ambassador for Cuban cigars.

See also: Cuban expert Simon Chase, 74, dies (Cigar Aficionado)

Image above courtesy UK Cigar Scene magazine

Philip Morris lobbies councils to go 'smoke free' harder and faster

I was on BBC Radio Essex this afternoon.

They wanted to talk about a ‘story’ that first appeared in September 2018 (England won't be cigarette free until after 2050).

Based on a study by Frontiers Economics, which was commissioned by Philip Morris to carry out the research, the claims were widely reported with several headlines focussing on the prediction that Bristol could 'kick the habit' as early as 2024.

That's nonsense, of course. Nevertheless, on Saturday, six months after those reports were published, the study was resuscitated and given new life. In a report described by the Mirror as an 'exclusive', readers were told:

The cigarette’s days are numbered, and the last fag to be smoked in England will be puffed in Derby in 2050, researchers have predicted.

If current quitting trends continue, today’s 7.4 million smokers will dwindle to zero in 30 years, market analysts Frontier Economics found.

But the rate at which smokers quit their filthy habit, which kills 200 people a day, varies in different areas.

Bristol is set to be the first city to quit, having no smokers by 2024, followed by York and Wokingham, Berks, in 2026.

I've no idea whether Philip Morris was behind the Mirror's 'exclusive' but, either way, the comms team lost no time exploiting it:

It’s predicted that Bristol will be the first city to have their last ever cigarette (in 2024), thoughts on this @BristolCouncil? #SmokeFreeFuture https://t.co/A9J60WtUuG pic.twitter.com/ym5APYSRBZ

— Philip Morris UK (@PhilipMorrisUK) March 25, 2019

York, Wokingham and Berkshire are set to be the next cities to #QuitSmoking in 2026, following Bristol in 2024. Think you can catch Bristol up @CityofYork, @WokinghamBC & @WestBerkshire? #SmokeFreeFuture https://t.co/A9J60WtUuG pic.twitter.com/MAWZrsjDPh

— Philip Morris UK (@PhilipMorrisUK) March 25, 2019

According to @FrontierEcon the last cigarette to EVER be smoked in England, will be in Derby 2050. Think you can bring it any closer @DerbyCC? #SmokeFreeFuture https://t.co/A9J60WtUuG

— Philip Morris UK (@PhilipMorrisUK) March 25, 2019

Other councils Philip Morris has been tweeting today include Portsmouth, Reading, Blackpool, Southampton, Milton Keynes and East Riding.

The aim, clearly, is to nudge local authorities to implement more 'smoke free' policies with a view to stubbing out smoking harder and faster.

I'm sure you have your own views on that. I'll keep mine to myself for now, although the word 'shameless' comes to mind.

In the meantime I can't wait for the opportunity to test the forecast that Bristol will have 'no smokers by 2024'.

That should be fun. Perhaps PM's comms team would like to join us.

PS. This morning I was on BBC Radio Cambridgeshire. Subject: eating, drinking and smoking in cars.

They put me head-to-head with Perry, a driving instructor, who spoke (unsurprisingly) just like a driving instructor.

If Perry had his way we'd keep both hands on the wheel at all times and not allow ourselves to be distracted by anything, not even the radio.

On the question of smoking, I pointed out that research suggests it is well down the list of things that are said to distract drivers and, unlike the use of mobile phones, there is no record of smoking having been responsible for any accidents.

Pushed (by me) to produce evidence that smoking has been responsible for a single accident, Perry admitted there isn't any but justified his concern by pointing out that drivers are not allowed to smoke during their driving test.

I'm not sure that was a winning argument. After all, if that's the bar we'd never listen to the radio, change a CD, chat to fellow passengers or carry children.

Then again, I think Perry would be quite happy with that.

Blast from the past

Never thought I’d see one of these beauties again.

In February 2006, shortly before members of parliament voted to ban smoking in enclosed public places, we sent every MP a final briefing note plus a special gift - an ashtray emblazoned with our campaign logo.

Although they were hand delivered we discovered later that quite a few got chipped or broken en route so I was more than surprised, two weeks ago, to meet a politician who still had one in mint condition.

When I say ‘mint’, I mean it was still in one piece. In truth it was filthy. It sat on a low wall in his garden and following overnight rain fag ends were floating around in the dirty water that had collected in it.

Nevertheless I can’t tell you how delighted I was that, 13 years on, one of our ashtrays had not only survived, it was still in daily use.

Anyway, by complete coincidence, I have since stumbled upon one of the original samples and here it is.

A design classic, I think you’ll agree.