Panic in the world

Happy Sunday, everyone.

Forest supporters in the news

Until a few hours ago I didn’t know a single person among my circle of family, friends and neighbours who had been infected with coronavirus.

Late last night however I received an email. The subject line read ‘Forest supporters in the news’ and the body of the email included a link to a report in today’s Telegraph:

UK patient zero? East Sussex family may have been infected with coronavirus as early as mid-January

The gist of the story is that IT consultant Daren Bland was on a skiing holiday in Austria in January and when he returned home he developed symptoms that, in hindsight, may have been coronavirus.

Inevitably perhaps he passed it on to his wife Sarah and at least one of their four children, none of whom went to Austria.

Within hours the story was picked up by the Mail, Sun and Mirror and as I write further reports are appearing across the world.

I mention this for one reason and one reason only. I know Daren and Sarah Bland!

The first time we met was at Revolt In Style, the gala dinner Forest hosted at the Savoy Hotel, London, six days before the introduction of the smoking ban in England in 2007.

There were almost 400 guests and the only reason we met is because they shared a table with an old friend of mine who, by coincidence, lives near them. It was he who introduced us and sent the email last night.

Daren and Sarah subsequently attended several Forest events, including last year’s 40th anniversary dinner.

But my principal memory is the time Sarah joined me at a Labour conference in Bournemouth. Forest was hosting an event and we needed volunteers to distribute flyers.

Sarah came down from East Sussex and we spent two days standing outside the Royal Bath Hotel and other venues handing out leaflets and chatting to delegates.

Today she and Daren (or ‘Patient Zero’ as he will now be known) are trending worldwide. Fancy that!

Update: I spoke to Sarah this morning and her principal gripe, if I can call it that, is that none of her family has been tested to see whether the symptoms they experienced in January was definitely coronavirus.

Daren however is more concerned that delivery of the wine he ordered online has just been cancelled.

My thoughts are with them both at this difficult time.

Shameless opportunism

Apologies for the lack of posts these past ten days.

I'm trying hard not to comment on the coronavirus situation, here or on social media. The last thing anyone needs is yet another blowhard mouthing off from the comfort of his armchair.

Impossible, I know, but if we could agree on just one thing it should be this. Whatever actions are taken (or not taken) in the course of this difficult period, decision-makers are doing their best in unusual circumstances.

Give them credit for that, at least, even if you disagree with some of their decisions, or the timing. Anyone who tries to take advantage of the present situation to pursue their own agenda deserves our contempt, which brings me to something I do wish to comment on.

I'm sure I'm not alone in thinking how distasteful it is that tobacco control campaigners, led by ASH, have decided that the current pandemic is a good time to double down on smoking cessation.

Quoting the Secretary of State for Health Matt Hancock (“It is abundantly clear from the research into previous coronaviruses that smoking makes the impact of a coronavirus worse”) ASH last week issued a press release that began:

As the Government again highlights the risks to smokers from COVID-19, Action on Smoking and Health (ASH) is joining health professionals in calling on smokers to #QuitforCovid.

Like my fellow lobbyists at ASH I'm no expert but I do know there is currently no evidence to suggest that a disproportionate number of smokers have died from coronavirus.

It will be months before there is more data but in the meantime it's worth reading this initial study, Smoking, vaping and hospitalization for COVID-19.

Co-authored by Greek cardiologist Dr Konstantinos Farsalinos who has become synonymous with research on the use of e-cigarettes, the study 'presents an analysis of the current smoking prevalence among hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in China, compared to the population smoking prevalence in China.'

According to the authors:

The current study examined for the first time the prevalence of current smoking among hospitalized patients with COVI-19 in China and compared it with the expected prevalence based on the population smoking prevalence. Care was taken to consider the large difference between genders, with current smoking being substantially more prevalent among Chinese males than females. An unusually low prevalence of current smoking among hospitalized COVID-19 cases in China was observed when considering the population smoking prevalence. The true prevalence of current smoking among hospitalized COVID-19 cases presented in 5 studies was approximately one-third the expected prevalence. This preliminary analysis, assuming that the reported data are accurate, does not support the argument that current smoking is a risk factor for hospitalization for COVID-19, and might even suggest a protective role.

No-one, least of all Dr Farsalinos, would suggest this is a definitive study (it's far too early for that) but it does make interesting reading.

Dr Farsalinos, it should be noted, is a regular speaker at e-cigarette and tobacco-related conferences. He strikes me as being reasonable and non-judgemental about smoking and smokers. Sadly, within the public health/tobacco control community, he represents a tiny minority.

Meanwhile, according to ASH:

Exposure to secondhand smoke is also likely to exacerbate the risks from coronavirus, alongside the other harms it causes. Therefore, smokers who are self-isolating and are not able to go outside to smoke should seek alternatives such as Nicotine Replacement Therapy (NRT) or e-cigarettes to protect the people around them from harm.

CEO Deborah Arnott said:

“This is a worrying time for all of us and people are looking for what they can do to protect themselves and protect others. For smokers, quitting or temporarily stopping during this outbreak is one of the best things they could do right now. Many stop smoking services are looking at how they can support people remotely and I urge people to also use other sources of nicotine such as NRT to help them with the cravings.”

The problem with this approach is that it ignores the fact that many smokers – even those who admit to being 'addicted' – enjoy smoking or take comfort from it.

Many people's lives have been turned upside down by the Government's current strategy. Millions of jobs have been lost, or put on hold. The future, for many people, is uncertain, despite the Government's best efforts.

The threat of contracting coronavirus would seem to be a real one, even if the numbers are still relatively small, with the result that many people, including whole families, are being confined to their homes 23 hours a day.

In that situation a habit such as smoking may be one of the few comforts or pleasures some adults still have and anyone who sees the coronavirus as a "huge opportunity" to promote smoking cessation needs to take a long hard look at themselves.

As readers know I don't smoke but I am overweight. Not just overweight. Obese. The last time I checked I had a BMI of 31. (It's probably worse now because I've put on another stone since then.)

The reason I am overweight is because I eat too much of the 'wrong' type of food and apart from walking the dog round the village I don't get much exercise.

I eat too much of the 'wrong' type of food because I enjoy it and I lack self-discipline. Stuck at home all day, as I am at present, there is an even greater temptation to snack at regular intervals on comfort food.

I could of course use the current threat (Obese or overweight coronavirus patients most in need of critical care) as a motivation to diet, and I may do that, but do you know what would actively discourage me? Public health campaigners using the coronavirus crisis to shame me to shape up.

If I am to lose weight by eating less of what I enjoy it will be my decision, and mine alone. I won't be nagged or coerced by 'public health' messages.

In short, if politicians or public health campaigners believe that today is the day to quit smoking (or, in my case, lose weight) they know very little about human nature.

So my advice? Back off. There's a time and a place for smoking cessation 'advice' and this isn't one of them.

Update: Journalist Mary Kenny tweets:

Another boffin on BBC R4 explains why Italy so badly hit. 1. High number of smokers. 2. High number of oldies. 3. High level of resistance to antibiotics (possibly from prophylactic use?). Interesting. But is this "blaming the victim"?

It's true that Italy has a higher smoking rate than the UK but according to WHO figures there are many countries with a higher rate than Italy – among them the Netherlands, Turkey, France, Poland, Hungary, Germany and Austria – and to the best of my knowledge none of those countries is currently suffering as much as Italy.

Personally I would take such claims with a pinch of salt, at least until incontrovertible evidence is available.

Sadly however it's typical of the type of weak, observational analysis we have come to expect from both the BBC and the media in general.

Pub landlord Nick Hogan released from jail ten years ago this week

I can’t let a small but important anniversary pass unnoticed.

Ten years ago this week pub landlord Nick Hogan, jailed for six months after allowing smokers to light up in his pub, was released after spending eleven days in a Salford prison.

Nick’s release followed an online campaign, led by bloggers Anna Raccoon and Old Holborn, that raised almost £10,000 to secure his release. ‬

The Telegraph has the story here (Landlord who defied smoking ban freed from jail after punters pay his fine) but the real drama took place behind the scenes.

First there was a desperate and rather sad attempt to hijack Anna and OH’s initiative.

Then there was a problem getting PayPal to release the money, which led to a frustrating delay in getting Nick released.

Last but not least, the authorities at HMP Forest Bank in Salford insisted that the money had to be delivered and paid in CASH!

You can read the full story via these posts:

Smoking ban costs landlord his liberty (February 27, 2010)
Free Nick Hogan - how you can help (March 1, 2010)
Nick Hogan featured on SunTalk (March 1, 2010
Nick Hogan in “violent” jail (March 1, 2010)
Get Nick out for No Smoking Day! (March 2, 2010)
Nick Hogan - every little helps (March 4, 2010)
Nick Hogan - target reached! (March 5, 2010)
Nick Hogan - free at last! (March 10, 2010)
Old Holborn - the money shot (March 10, 2010)
Nick Hogan - behind the scenes (March 11, 2010)
Nick Hogan - a “parable for our times” (March 15, 2010)

The following year Nick spoke at a Forest event that took place at the Cavern Club in Liverpool during the 2011 Labour conference.

The tenth anniversary of the smoking ban later prompted an interview with Nick in the Manchester Evening News, The only man ever jailed over the smoking ban has given up cigarettes... but he's not given up speaking his mind (July 1, 2017), which is worth reading.

And to prove that he’s still alive and kicking, Nick announced recently that Bury Conservative Association had selected him as a candidate in the local council elections (which have now been postponed until 2021).

As for that day in Salford, aside from David Hockney’s appearance at the Labour conference in Brighton in 2005, it is without doubt the most surreal thing I’ve ever been involved in.

Thanks, Nick!

H/T Old Holborn and the sadly deceased Anna Raccoon (aka Susanne Cameron-Blackie).

Below: Nick Hogan addressing a Forest event at the Cavern Club in Liverpool, September 2011

From coronavirus to Corfu

As a good citizen I have been working from home this week.

No sign, yet, of a high temperature and persistent cough which is ironic because, for the previous few winters, a constant cough is something I’d grown to live with.

I haven’t completely escaped the effects of the coronavirus pandemic however.

Three meetings I was due to attend (two in London, one in Brussels) have been cancelled.

A planned trip to Scotland next weekend is also off following the postponement of all football matches.

What else?

Oh yes, on Thursday I was asked to do an interview for BBC1 Look North.

Before they booked a studio I had to confirm I had not recently visited a category one country (China, South Korea, northern Italy) or a category two country (Hong Kong, Thailand, Singapore etc).

When I arrived at the studio the receptionist kept me waiting outside until I reassured her I was not infected.

Then, when I was allowed in to the building, I was instructed (very firmly) to wash my hands immediately with sanitiser.

Only after that was I permitted to enter the studio.

Meanwhile we’ve just had a visit from the Waitrose delivery man. No toilet rolls, no hand wash and no paracetamol.

Help!

PS. Four weeks today I hope to be back in Corfu (below) where we had a very pleasant holiday last year.

I’m not a betting man but what are the odds?

Update: No sooner had I posted this than my wife read this - Greek seasonal hotels and resorts closed until end of April.

Guess we won’t be going away after all.

Talking about tax and tobacco

I was on BBC Look North last night.

In the wake of the Budget there was a report from Hull where 26 per cent of men still smoke.

Presenter Peter Levy adopted his usual slightly antagonistic position - which can come across as anti-smoking - but I don’t mind that at all.

In a one-to-one interview I expect the presenter to play devil’s advocate.

One thing I thought was a bit below the belt, given that Look North invited me to appear, was his insistence on raising the issue of who funds Forest.

Again, I don’t mind talking about it - we’ve never been shy of the fact that we get donations from Big Tobacco - but it denied me the time to make some other points I felt would have been more relevant to the report.

For example, Levy sought to downplay the tax increase, pointing out that it was only another 27p on the price of a pack of cigarettes.

The reality is that, in 2011, a pack of 20 cost £7. Following the 2020 Budget the price is now £12.73. In addition the price of the smallest pouch of hand-rolling tobacco has gone up by 67p.

The argument put forward by Levy and others is, if it’s too expensive to smoke then quit smoking!

I get that everyone has to live within their means but why should poorer smokers be forced to quit an everyday habit they enjoy because the government raises the level of tax to 90 per cent of the RRP?

Punitive taxation, the ban on ten packs and smaller pouches of rolling tobacco are all designed to target the less well off, and that’s discrimination.

Anyway, you can watch it here. The IEA’s Chris Snowdon makes an appearance too.

The programme is on BBC iPlayer until 7.00pm this evening.

Two cheers for the Chancellor

It could have been worse.

As expected the Chancellor re-committed to introducing the tobacco escalator (inflation plus two percent annually) for the duration of this parliament.

The rate on hand-rolling tobacco will also increase – by inflation plus six per cent for this year.

In practice that means an extra 27p for a pack of 20 cigarettes from tonight with with hand-rolling tobacco going up by 67p per 30g pouch.

In theory that should have left ASH, Cancer Research, the British Lung Foundation and the British Heart Foundation feeling pretty smug.

After all, it was they who lobbied the government to reintroduce the tax escalator and close the gap in tax between hand-rolled tobacco and manufactured cigarettes.

However the escalator is still well short of the inflation plus five per cent target that ASH has demanded in previous years.

Nor was the Chancellor minded to agree to tobacco control's Holy Grail – the imposition of a levy on tobacco companies to pay for further anti-smoking measures.

Several years ago George Osborne rejected the idea - using the same argument as Forest, that it would be passed on to the consumer – and Rishi Sunak shows no sign of reversing that position.

Nevertheless we know that ASH and co won't rest until the policy has been adopted so I expect this to run and run.

Meanwhile I take further solace from something Chris Snowdon tweeted:

That the Chancellor chooses not to mention the rise in tobacco duty on National No Smoking Day shows that governments are no longer proud of this regressive tax. It’s just a revenue raiser.

He's absolutely right. This wasn't a short statement by the Chancellor (he spoke for over an hour) yet the increase in tobacco duty wasn't mentioned.

Instead, after he sat down, those of us with an interest in the subject had to feverishly search the entire Budget document (which was posted on the Treasury website) before we found the relevant details on page 67.

No Smoking Day, as I pointed out on Monday, may not be a shadow of its former self but it would have been very easy for the Chancellor to provoke a few cheap cheers by mentioning it in conjunction with an increase in tobacco duty.

Instead he chose to bury the policy online and ignore what many previous chancellors would have considered an open goal. I bet ASH were gutted.

So while I am disappointed (but not surprised) at yet another tax increase on tobacco, my overall reaction is one of mild relief.

That was a little too nuanced for a press release, though, so here is Forest's official response as reported by The Sun, among others:

"This is another kick in the teeth for poorer smokers in particular.

"If the Conservatives want to keep their ‘red wall’ seats they need to show a lot more empathy for ordinary working people, including the millions of adults who enjoy smoking.

"Further increases in tobacco duty discriminate against those who are less well off.

"In addition to forcing some smokers further into poverty, it will encourage illicit trade which puts smokers at even greater risk from counterfeit tobacco."

"The Chancellor had an opportunity to stand up for consumers who are willing to pay their fair share of tax but object to being punished for a habit that already earns the Treasury over £10 billion a year. Sadly he flunked it."

Budget 2020: cost of cigarettes to go up to £12.73 a pack from 6pm tonight as Chancellor hikes tobacco tax (The Sun).

Update: It turns out ASH wanted an inflation plus 15 per cent tax increase on hand-rolled tobacco. And they have the cheek to complain about smoking pushing more people into poverty.

ASH would rather have the poor poorer

Rishi Sunak will announce his first Budget tomorrow.

We may have a new chancellor but expect more of the same when it comes to sin taxes. The annual increase in tobacco duty is such a familiar announcement it barely gets a mention in the media.

For many years tobacco duty has risen in accordance with a so-called tobacco escalator that has been set at inflation plus two per cent. Naturally this isn't enough for the likes of ASH which has repeatedly called for the escalator to be increased to inflation plus five per cent.

Supported by ten public health organisations including Cancer Research UK, British Lung Foundation and British Heart Foundation, ASH wants the Chancellor 'to do more to reduce the affordability of tobacco products':

Specifically, charities want to see the Chancellor reintroduce the tax escalator and take steps to close the gap in tax between hand rolled tobacco and factory-made cigarettes. Most importantly they want to see Treasury backing for a new Smokefree 2030 Fund to deliver on the Government’s commitment for a smokefree country by 2030. The charities are calling for a specific levy on tobacco companies to raise a £300 million annual fund to pay for the measures needed to help more smokers quit and prevent children from taking up smoking.

See 'What will the Chancellor do for smokers this No Smoking Day?'.

Forest has responded by urging the Chancellor to "stop punishing smokers". Here's our full quote:

“The Treasury must stop punishing smokers because this annual assault on the pockets of ordinary people cannot continue.

“Reintroducing the tax escalator will push the poorest smokers further into poverty and drive illicit trade, putting smokers at even greater risk.

"Closing the gap in tax between hand-rolled tobacco and manufactured cigarettes is another spiteful attempt to target the less well off.

“A levy on tobacco companies will also penalise smokers because everyone knows it will be passed on to the consumer.

“The Chancellor has an opportunity to stand up for consumers who are willing to pay their fair share of tax but object strongly to being punished for a habit that already earns the Treasury over £10 billion a year.”

We shall see.

Update: Chancellor urged to ‘stop punishing smokers’ (Talking Retail)