The second reading of the Tobacco and Vapes Bill takes place in the House of Commons today.
There will be a debate followed by a vote this evening. Reports suggest 50 to 100 Conservative MPs, including a few Cabinet members, may rebel and either vote against the Bill or abstain. (I suspect more will abstain than vote against.)
Either way it won't be enough to derail the Bill because Labour is committed to supporting it so it would need a huge Tory revolt - 276 votes, I think - to scupper it and that’s not going to happen.
Nevertheless, it only needs 26 Tory MPs to vote against the Bill for the Government to need opposition votes to get it to the next stage, and that’s not a good look for the prime minister.
My guess is that, vote wise, the so-called rebellion may be fairly muted today. The problem we have is two-fold.
One, many Conservative MPs will be reluctant to rock the boat by giving the prime minister a bloody nose before the local elections on May 2.
Two, MPs are today being asked to vote on the Bill in its entirety, and while many Tories are opposed to the generational ban, some of the same MPs are also minded to support the ban on disposable vapes, which is also in the Bill, so you can see the problem.
After the second reading the Bill goes to the committee stage, during which amendments can be tabled, and that’s where it could get interesting, and more complicated.
It has been suggested, for example, that an amendment to raise the age of sale from 18 to 21 might be tabled with a view to replacing the generational ban.
Today therefore is only one stage in the Bill’s journey through Parliament and although the odds are against the generational ban being defeated, opponents of the policy won’t go down without a fight, that’s for sure.
Some, like Philip Davies MP, have suggested they might hold their fire until the third reading (in June) so whatever happens today this is not the end of the matter.
See: Tory ministers threaten to vote against Rishi Sunak’s smoking ban (The Times) - includes a quote by me.
Sunak faces 50 MP rebellion over smoking ban (Telegraph)
PS. I was on Times Radio last night, discussing the Bill with Hazel Cheeseman, deputy chief executive of ASH.
This morning I’m on the Five Live phone-in with Nicky Campbell, followed by GB News, and after that I shall I be travelling to London for a possible interview with Channel 4 News. More later.
Update: Just been interviewed by Channel 5 News outside Blackfriars Station. They wanted a soundbite to drop into their evening news and it was quicker for them to come to me.
This evening I’m doing three interviews at Millbank studios in Westminster - BBC Radio Wales, BBC Look North, and Sky News.
Andrew Marr’s producer from LBC has been in touch too but they wanted me on between 6.00 and 6.30 when I’m doing two of the interviews above.
Can’t do ‘em all, I’m afraid.
That said, we’re not as in demand as we might have been. I’m guessing that with a number of profile Tories voting against the Bill (Liz Truss and my namesake Simon Clarke, for example), their reaction is, understandably, a better story than the comments of those perennial lobbyists, Forest.
Talking of which, I was intrigued to read this report in the Guardian - Chris Whitty urges MPs to ignore lobbying and pass smoking ban bill.
It includes a reference to Forest:
Polling is also being used to influence the debate. Forest, the self-styled “smokers’ rights” campaign group, has urged MPs to reject the bill, describing it as “ageist”.
“If you are legally an adult, it’s ageist if you are denied the same rights as adults who may be only a year or two older than you are,” said Forest’s director, Simon Clark. He cited a poll that found 64% of the public believed people should be allowed to buy cigarettes if they were allowed to drive a car, join the army, possess a credit card, buy alcohol and vote at 18.
This is the poll the Guardian is referring to. God help us if only the ‘public health’ elite are allowed to lobby our elected representatives, but that seems to be the way we are going.
