Say No To Nanny

Smokefree Ideology


Nicotine Wars

 

40 Years of Hurt

Prejudice and Prohibition

Road To Ruin?

Search This Site
The Pleasure of Smoking

Forest Polling Report

Outdoor Smoking Bans

Share This Page
Powered by Squarespace
Wednesday
Apr292015

Guto Bebb, friend or foe?

Between now and the General Election on May 7 I'm highlighting a series of 'target seats', those where the candidate standing for re-election has supported anti-tobacco policies, and those where a leading candidate is an opponent of excessive lifestyle regulations and policies that infantilise us all. With a few exceptions I'm focussing on marginal or semi-marginal seats.

#25 - Aberconwy
A safe-ish Conservative seat is looking extremely vulnerable following the publication, two weeks ago, of an email exchange between the incumbent candidate, Guto Bebb, and local party chairman Garry Burchett (Aberconwy Tory hopeful loses chairman's backing). This is not the first time Bebb has been embroiled in controversy. Nevertheless he has consistently voted against excessive regulations, and there aren't many MPs like that. Elected in 2010 he supported an amendment to the smoking ban, voted against a ban on smoking in private vehicles (with children), and opposed plain packaging. His challengers are evenly split but he's vulnerable to a collapse in the Lib Dem vote.

2010 majority: 3,398 (11.3%)
Estimated number of smokers in Aberconwy: 8,918*
Principal opponent: Labour, Lib Dem, Plaid Cymru
Friend or foe: Friend
Target rating: Vulnerable

*Based on 20% of the registered electorate in 2010

Note: marginal seats have been defined as those with majorities of 10% or less that require a swing of 5% for the incumbent party to lose.

Tuesday
Apr282015

James Morris, friend or foe?

Between now and the General Election on May 7 I'm highlighting a series of 'target seats', those where the candidate standing for re-election has supported anti-tobacco policies, and those where a leading candidate is an opponent of excessive lifestyle regulations and policies that infantilise us all. With a few exceptions I'm focussing on marginal or semi-marginal seats.

#24 - Halesowen & Rowley Regis
Another incumbent who won't be missed. Conservative James Morris voted against a relaxation of the smoking ban (2010) and in favour of a ban on smoking in private vehicles with children (2014 and 2015). Completing the set he voted in support of plain packaging (2015). With a record like that don't be surprised if some Tory voters swing to Ukip.

2010 majority: 2,023 (4.6%)
Estimated number of smokers in Halesowen & Rowley Regis: 12,747*
Principal opponent: Labour
Friend or foe: Foe
Target rating: Good

*Based on 20% of the registered electorate in 2010

Note: marginal seats have been defined as those with majorities of 10% or less that require a swing of 5% for the incumbent party to lose.

Tuesday
Apr282015

Richard Fuller, friend or foe?

Between now and the General Election on May 7 I'm highlighting a series of 'target seats', those where the candidate standing for re-election has supported anti-tobacco policies, and those where a leading candidate is an opponent of excessive lifestyle regulations and policies that infantilise us all. With a few exceptions I'm focussing on marginal or semi-marginal seats.

#23 - Bedford
This is where it begins to get complicated. Elected in 2010, Richard Fuller is defending an extremely marginal seat. In February 2014 and February 2015 he voted against a ban on smoking in private vehicles with children present, and in March 2015 he voted against plain packaging of tobacco. Curiously, however, in October 2010 he voted against David Nuttall's amendment to the smoking ban!!!!! On balance, given his most recent voting record which suggests friend rather than foe, we'll give him the benefit of the doubt.

2010 majority: 1,353 (3.0%)
Estimated number of smokers in Bedford: 13,688*
Principal opponent: Labour
Friend or foe: Friend
Target rating: Vulnerable

*Based on 20% of the registered electorate in 2010

Note: marginal seats have been defined as those with majorities of 10% or less that require a swing of 5% for the incumbent party to lose.

Monday
Apr272015

Julie Hilling, friend or foe?

Between now and the General Election on May 7 I'm highlighting a series of 'target seats', those where the candidate standing for re-election has supported anti-tobacco policies, and those where a leading candidate is an opponent of excessive lifestyle regulations and policies that infantilise us all. With a few exceptions I'm focussing on marginal or semi-marginal seats.

#22 - Bolton West
Julie Hilling is one of many incumbent candidates I've never heard of. She only came to my attention when I checked (a) the list of MPs who voted for plain packaging, and (b) the more marginal seats. Well, Hilling not only voted in favour of plain packaging, she's defending one of the most marginal seats in the country. Since 2012 she's been an Opposition Whip and, if I remember correctly, Labour MPs were whipped to vote for plain packs. It could be argued she was merely obeying orders and, as a Whip, had zero choice in the matter. That's undeniably true but if I was a constituent in Bolton West I'd be giving serious thought to my choice of candidate and plain packaging would be high on my list of considerations because of what it represents.

2010 majority: 92 (0.2%)
Estimated number of smokers in Bolton West: 14,244*
Principal opponent: Conservative
Friend or foe: Foe
Target rating: Extremely high

*Based on 20% of the registered electorate in 2010

Note: marginal seats have been defined as those with majorities of 10% or less that require a swing of 5% for the incumbent party to lose.

Monday
Apr272015

Douglas Carswell, friend or foe?

Between now and the General Election on May 7 I'm highlighting a series of 'target seats', those where the candidate standing for re-election has supported anti-tobacco policies, and those where a leading candidate is an opponent of excessive lifestyle regulations and policies that infantilise us all. With a few exceptions I'm focussing on marginal or semi-marginal seats.

#21 - Clacton
By common consent Mark Reckless (Rochester & Strood) is at greater risk of defeat than fellow Conservative defector turned Ukip MP Douglas Carswell. In 2010, representing the Conservatives, Carswell attracted 53% of the vote in Clacton and a majority of 28%. In the 2014 by-election, following his defection, he won 59.7% of the vote and a majority of 35.1%, albeit on a smaller turnout. How many former Tory voters will return to the fold is anyone's guess but Carswell deserves support because of his opposition to the smoking ban (he voted for an amendment) and plain packaging (he voted against). In February 2014 he also voted against a ban on smoking in private vehicles (when children are present). In contrast, Reckless only voted against the latter after he defected to Ukip. He didn't vote for David Nuttall's Bill to amend the smoking ban either. If Carswell is re-elected, and Nigel Farage fails to win Thanet South, he could throw his hat in the ring to be leader of the party. Whether he would stick his neck out for smokers like Farage remains to be seen. It's probably safe to say though that ideologically Carswell will continue to support less government intrusion on our lives and for that reason alone he would get my vote if I lived in Clacton.

2014 (by-election) majority: 12,404 (35.1%)
Estimated number of smokers in Clacton: 13,858*
Principal opponent: Conservative
Friend or foe: Friend
Target rating: Should be safe

*Based on 20% of the registered electorate in 2014

Note: marginal seats have been defined as those with majorities of 10% or less that require a swing of 5% for the incumbent party to lose.

Sunday
Apr262015

Election message

Over on the Forest website I've posted an election message. It begins:

We’re not stupid. We know smoking and smokers’ rights aren’t the most important issues in the world and, come the election, it’s natural that voters will focus on a combination of issues – the economy, education, immigration, defence, the NHS and so forth.

Nevertheless the constant harassment of adults who choose to smoke tobacco, a legal product that generates over £10 billion a year in taxation alone (far outweighing the alleged cost of treating smoking-related diseases, estimated at £2.7 billion), is an issue politicians would be wise not to ignore.

The smoking ban, for example, has affected many people’s lives and continues to do so. Many smokers, especially older ones, have stopped going to pubs. Today they smoke and drink at home, often on their own. For many pubs the smoking ban was the final straw. Since the ban was introduced thousands have closed, many in the first year. That has not only destroyed many people's social lives, it has cost thousands of jobs.

Meanwhile successive governments (Labour and the Conservative-Lib Dem Coalition) banned cigarette vending machines, introduced a tobacco display ban and prohibited smoking in private vehicles when children are present.

Next year, following a recent vote in parliament, cigarettes will be sold in standardised or "plain" packaging. At the same time, as a result of the EU’s revised Tobacco Products Directive, there will be larger health warnings on the front and back of cigarette packets and, eventually, the complete prohibition of menthol cigarettes.

These measures not only infantilise every adult, there’s no evidence they will stop children smoking. Instead they’re designed to "denormalise" smoking and, by extension, the consumer in the hope that smokers will be forced to stop or shamed into quitting. Inevitably the public health juggernaut will rumble on and we all know where it’s heading. Prohibition by a thousand cuts.

With regard to the main parties I wrote:

Labour is the party that introduced the smoking ban in Scotland, then England and Wales. The last Labour government banned tobacco vending machines and was also responsible for the legislation that led to the tobacco display ban. Plain packaging and the ban on smoking in cars with children are both the result of Labour pressure. If the party is elected back into government Labour has vowed to introduce a tobacco levy that will almost certainly be passed on to the consumer. Tobacco will become even more expensive and it doesn’t take a genius to predict the outcome – a flourishing black market driven by price.

The Conservatives haven’t specified which tobacco control policies they will introduce next but consider what a Conservative-led government did in the last parliament. First, they went ahead and introduced Labour’s tobacco display ban even though they opposed it in opposition. Under pressure from Labour they introduced legislation banning smoking in cars with children, and in the final weeks of the parliament they pushed through a ban on smoking in private vehicles with children plus regulations on plain packaging. None of these policies was in the 2010 Conservative manifesto.

As a party the Lib Dems did nothing to oppose plain packaging, or the display ban, or the prohibition of smoking in private vehicles. Were we surprised? No. Sadly, with the exception of one or two MPs, there’s nothing liberal about the Liberal Democrats.

In Scotland the SNP is as anti-smoking as any other party. When Nicola Sturgeon was the shadow minister for health in 2002 she introduced a Bill to ban tobacco advertising and sponsorship in Scotland ahead of the rest of the UK. Don’t expect any respite if the party forms a "progressive" alliance with Labour in Westminster. It could get a whole lot worse.

Ukip is the exception when it comes to tobacco but that’s largely due to the influence of Nigel Farage. If Farage fails to win a seat in parliament and steps down as party leader it’s entirely feasible his successor will quietly drop Ukip’s opposition to the smoking ban and other tobacco control policies. It’s happened before and it could happen again.

I then link to information about the voting records of MPs in the last parliament on an amendment to the smoking ban, smoking in private vehicles (where children are present), and standardised packaging of tobacco.

Finally, I direct readers to this blog and my series of "friends" and "foes".

You can read it in full here: Message from our director - smokers are voters too.

PS. I won't be posting any 'friends' or 'foes' today. I'm at Hassop Hall in Derbyshire celebrating my aunt's 90th birthday. Some things take precedence over work!

Saturday
Apr252015

Ann McKechin, friend or foe?

Between now and the General Election on May 7 I'm highlighting a series of 'target seats', those where the candidate standing for re-election has supported anti-tobacco policies, and those where a leading candidate is an opponent of excessive lifestyle regulations and policies that infantilise us all. With a few exceptions I'm focussing on marginal or semi-marginal seats.

#20 - Glasgow North
Technically Glasgow North is not a marginal seat but try telling the SNP. Apart from Dundee, Glasgow was the only city/region in Scotland to vote in favour of independence and with polls suggesting Labour could lose most of their seats in Scotland, Glasgow North looks very shaky indeed. If Ann McKechin is defeated I won't be shedding any tears. It was McKechin, after all, who forced a debate on plain packaging in the House of Commons in January during which she called on the Government to hold a vote on introducing regulations. The real villain, it has to be said, was not McKechin but the Government which meekly caved in to her robust demand. Nevertheless the Labour candidate for Glasgow North won't be missed. I'd never even heard of her until the plain packaging debate!

2010 majority: 3,898 (13.2%)
Estimated number of smokers in Glasgow North: 10,282*
Principal opponent: SNP
Friend or foe: Foe
Target rating: Vulnerable

*Based on 20% of the registered electorate in 2010

Note: marginal seats have been defined as those with majorities of 10% or less that require a swing of 5% for the incumbent party to lose.

Saturday
Apr252015

Karl McCartney, friend or foe?

Between now and the General Election on May 7 I'm highlighting a series of 'target seats', those where the candidate standing for re-election has supported anti-tobacco policies, and those where a leading candidate is an opponent of excessive lifestyle regulations and policies that infantilise us all. With a few exceptions I'm focussing on marginal or semi-marginal seats.

#19 - Lincoln
Another Conservative MP first elected in 2010, Karl McCartney supported a relaxation of the smoking ban and voted against plain packaging. Understandably some people want to punish the Conservative party as a whole for being no different to Labour on issues such as this, but why do it at the expense of an independently-minded candidate who has consistently opposed excessive regulations and is likely to continue doing so, if re-elected? Realistically, if McCartney doesn't win Lincoln the seat will fall to Labour and the question smokers have to ask themselves is this: not forgetting the tobacco levy that's a feature of the party's 2015 manifesto, will a Labour MP be more or less likely than the incumbent to support further tobacco control policies?

2010 majority: 1,058 (2.3%)
Estimated number of smokers in Lincoln: 14,701*
Principal opponent: Labour
Friend or foe: Friend
Target rating: Vulnerable

*Based on 20% of the registered electorate in 2010

Note: marginal seats have been defined as those with majorities of 10% or less that require a swing of 5% for the incumbent party to lose.