Thanks to Gary Lineker (whose name I shall never mention again), this week's Budget has been overlooked somewhat.
The Chancellor's statement on Wednesday will have implications for all of us, but the impact on smokers will be huge if Jeremy Hunt maintains the annual tobacco escalator of inflation plus 2% (using the Retail Price Index as the measure of inflation) because that could mean a hike of 15%.
In terms of price, a pack of cigarettes could rise by £1.15, with the smallest (30g) pouch of rolling tobacco going up by £2. Even ASH baulked at that, suggesting recently that the increase in tobacco duty should be based on the predicted rise in average weekly earnings, which is currently lower than inflation.
Forest's response was to commission a poll to gauge public opinion. Conducted by Yonder Consulting (formerly Populus), we found that almost two thirds of the 2,013 respondents (65%) believe the tax on tobacco is already "about right" (38%) or "too high" (27%).
Only one in five (20%) of those asked think the tax on tobacco is “too low”, while 15% said they "don't know".
The poll also found that 62% of adults think that purchasing tobacco from the black market is an "understandable" response given the high cost of tobacco sold legally in the United Kingdom, whereas only 22% of respondents believe it is not an "understandable" response. (16% said they "don't know".)
Respondents also believe that the government has more pressing concerns than tackling smoking.
Asked to consider a list of ten issues for the government to address in 2023, respondents said tackling the rising cost of household utilities such as electricity and gas is the most important priority (54%), followed by improving the health service by providing more beds, frontline staff and cutting waiting lists (48%), tackling inflation (40%), and addressing care for the elderly (32%).
Other issues included tackling climate change (28%), the housing shortage (26%), and helping businesses recover from the impact of the pandemic (17%).
Tackling smoking was bottom of the list (10%), alongside tackling obesity (10%), and tackling misuse of alcohol (9%).
Armed with these results we said:
"The Chancellor should freeze duty on tobacco and give smokers a break. Raising the tax on tobacco not only discriminates against poorer smokers, it will drive more consumers to the unregulated black market.
"This is bad news for legitimate retailers and bad news for the Treasury which could lose billions of pounds in revenue if more consumers buy their tobacco from illicit traders.
"Significantly, there is very little stigma attached to buying tobacco on the black market. In a cost of living crisis the public understands that many consumers will opt for the cheaper option, even if it's illegal."
Naturally the poll was ignored by the mainstream media when it was issued last week. It was however picked up by a handful of trade publications:
Forest urges freeze on UK tobacco duty (Tobacco Reporter)
Budget: freeze duty on tobacco and “give smokers a break”, say campaigners (Asian Trader)
Almost two thirds of adults think buying illegal tobacco is “understandable” (Convenience Store)
I can't believe that any Chancellor would be stupid or heartless enough to raise tobacco duty by 15 per cent in a single strike, but during a cost of living crisis it would be especially cruel.
Nevertheless we live in strange times and as I have noted before (Why the Chancellor must resist temptation to hike tax on tobacco), Jeremy Hunt, a former health secretary, has form when it comes to smoking.
Watch this space.