I was going to post this tomorrow but events have overtaken me so I’m publishing it now.
It’s quite a long read, I’m afraid, but there’s an interesting sting in the tale, courtesy of a report published in the Guardian this afternoon. But let’s start at the beginning ...
For the past two months I’ve been monitoring the Quit For Covid Twitter account.
The initiative was set up in March following the outbreak of Covid-19. It wasn’t entirely clear who is behind it.
Prof Robert West, a leading anti-smoking academic, credited ASH but I also read that it was the brainchild of a doctor in, I think, Bristol or Nottingham.
Eight weeks ago there were fears that smokers might be at much greater risk of harm from the coronavirus.
Public Health England helped fan that little flame by reporting, on April 3, the results of a very small study from China that suggested that 'smokers with Covid-19 are 14 times more likely to develop severe respiratory disease'.
What PHE failed to mention was that only 78 patients were included in the study, and just five were smokers (or ex-smokers).
Since then of course there have been multiple studies and the current consensus among those with an open mind is that:
(1) the proportion of smokers admitted to hospital with Covid-19 is, overall, significantly less than might be expected in relation to non-smokers, which suggests something “weird” is going on (ie a possible protective effect)
(2) smokers who are admitted to hospital have a higher risk of ending up in intensive care and therefore dying but the risk may be much less (x2 rather than x14) than PHE claimed
(3) the jury is still out on the relationship between smoking (or nicotine) and Covid-19.
I mention smoking and nicotine separately because no-one, it seems, wants to consider the very small possibility that it may be smoking itself rather than the nicotine that is ‘protecting’ smokers from Covid-19 (if indeed they are protected - did I mention the jury is still out?).
Anyway, back to Quit for Covid, a campaign that six weeks after its launch was given the dreaded seal of approval by Public Health England, a body whose credibility is so shot by its inability to prepare for or react to the coronavirus crisis that I would run a mile if it supported any campaign I was organising.
Undeterred by PHE’s endorsement, Quit for Covid has been running a series of quit smoking clinics on Twitter from 7.30-8.30pm.
The ‘clinic’ has been operating for a month or so now and I will say this. The tone is very gentle and there is none of the abrasive hectoring one associates with the anti-smoking professionals David Hockney complained about this week.
Also, I don’t doubt for a moment the well-meaning advice and sincerity of those operating the service.
What I do question is the shameless opportunism of some of the anti-smoking organisations and local authorities that have jumped on the #QuitforCovid bandwagon - groups like ASH, Fresh Smoke Free, and councils in Middlesbrough, Bristol, Hull, Warwickshire, Lincolnshire etc etc.
Essentially it's a smoking cessation service and if you've been reading this blog for a while you'll know that stop smoking services have been in decline for the best part of a decade, with the number of smokers using them falling dramatically.
There are reasons for that – and it has nothing to do with cuts in funding. Many councils have quite rightly reduced or stopped funding smoking cessation services in response to falling numbers, not the other way round.
And the reason the numbers are falling is because, increasingly, the people who continue to smoke are confirmed smokers who don't want to quit and have no interest in going to a stop smoking clinic.
Of those who want to quit most do it by themselves without state help, either by going cold turkey or, increasingly since 2012, switching to e-cigarettes.
Neither group needs the help of a 'quit smoking advisor'.
For those reasons I don’t think it’s a coincidence that so few smokers have availed themselves of the Quit for Covid clinic because few adults enjoy being lectured by Nanny, however sweetly.
The whole time I have been following the @QuitforCovid Twitter account the number of smokers who have requested advice can be counted on the fingers of one hand.
Most evenings there is no interaction at all with smokers and whoever is ‘on call’ is reduced to posting a series of tweets thanking local authorities for their support.
The sound of tumbleweed is so deafening that one evening the person in charge of the account was forced to post a series of tweets about milestones in tobacco control.
Tired, no doubt, of talking to themselves, the Quit for Covid team this week abandoned the evening clinic concept in favour of an 'open all hours’ policy.
Whether that makes any difference remains to be seen but I wonder if the anti-smoking industry has over-estimated the number of smokers who genuinely want to stop smoking.
According to a poll conducted by YouGov for ASH, an estimated 300,000 smokers have already quit since the pandemic began. However, as I explained here, that figure was extrapolated from 307 ex-smokers of whom only two per cent (six people) said they had stopped smoking due to fears about Covid-19.
Somehow, that number was magically manipulated to create the headline-grabbing claim that 300,000 smokers had quit in the four months since the pandemic began.
In truth, it wouldn’t surprise me if smoking rates, or tobacco consumption, have fallen during the pandemic - for a number of reasons, including fewer trips to the shops - but many smokers have told Forest that they are smoking more during lockdown, either through boredom or opportunity.
If they were working in an office, they say, they wouldn't be able to smoke as often as they can at home. On the other hand, if they are at home all day with small children, they might smoke less, so it's swings and roundabouts.
I would be surprised though if a significantly large number of smokers 'quit for Covid'. If you're the sort of person who ignores the graphic warnings on cigarette packs are you really likely to be bothered by people telling you it might be safer not to smoke during a pandemic?
Frankly, given the worry of being furloughed or losing your job, you're very likely to smoke more, if you can afford it, if only for the comfort it may bring.
Meanwhile, one look at the Quit for Covid Twitter feed will confirm that, ultimately, this is just another anti-smoking campaign driven by the tobacco control industry with little or no public support.
Update: Fancy that! I had barely finished this post when I read the following report in the Guardian –
Millions in UK smoking more amid coronavirus crisis, study suggests
Two weeks ago, based on another YouGov poll, ASH claimed that 2.4 million may have cut down and 300,000 smokers may have quit because of fears over Covid-19. They kept very quiet about people smoking more!
At least we have confirmation that ASH is behind the Quit For Covid campaign and, what a surprise, they’ve got the begging bowl out, demanding more taxpayers’ money to keep this sad little initiative afloat.
Typically for ASH, they’re also having a tantrum because the Government hasn’t coughed up the money quickly enough.
What an odd way to go about their business. The petulance and sense of entitlement is astounding.