Two cheers for the Chancellor
Wednesday, March 11, 2020 at 19:19
Simon Clark

It could have been worse.

As expected the Chancellor re-committed to introducing the tobacco escalator (inflation plus two percent annually) for the duration of this parliament.

The rate on hand-rolling tobacco will also increase – by inflation plus six per cent for this year.

In practice that means an extra 27p for a pack of 20 cigarettes from tonight with with hand-rolling tobacco going up by 67p per 30g pouch.

In theory that should have left ASH, Cancer Research, the British Lung Foundation and the British Heart Foundation feeling pretty smug.

After all, it was they who lobbied the government to reintroduce the tax escalator and close the gap in tax between hand-rolled tobacco and manufactured cigarettes.

However the escalator is still well short of the inflation plus five per cent target that ASH has demanded in previous years.

Nor was the Chancellor minded to agree to tobacco control's Holy Grail – the imposition of a levy on tobacco companies to pay for further anti-smoking measures.

Several years ago George Osborne rejected the idea - using the same argument as Forest, that it would be passed on to the consumer – and Rishi Sunak shows no sign of reversing that position.

Nevertheless we know that ASH and co won't rest until the policy has been adopted so I expect this to run and run.

Meanwhile I take further solace from something Chris Snowdon tweeted:

That the Chancellor chooses not to mention the rise in tobacco duty on National No Smoking Day shows that governments are no longer proud of this regressive tax. It’s just a revenue raiser.

He's absolutely right. This wasn't a short statement by the Chancellor (he spoke for over an hour) yet the increase in tobacco duty wasn't mentioned.

Instead, after he sat down, those of us with an interest in the subject had to feverishly search the entire Budget document (which was posted on the Treasury website) before we found the relevant details on page 67.

No Smoking Day, as I pointed out on Monday, may not be a shadow of its former self but it would have been very easy for the Chancellor to provoke a few cheap cheers by mentioning it in conjunction with an increase in tobacco duty.

Instead he chose to bury the policy online and ignore what many previous chancellors would have considered an open goal. I bet ASH were gutted.

So while I am disappointed (but not surprised) at yet another tax increase on tobacco, my overall reaction is one of mild relief.

That was a little too nuanced for a press release, though, so here is Forest's official response as reported by The Sun, among others:

"This is another kick in the teeth for poorer smokers in particular.

"If the Conservatives want to keep their ‘red wall’ seats they need to show a lot more empathy for ordinary working people, including the millions of adults who enjoy smoking.

"Further increases in tobacco duty discriminate against those who are less well off.

"In addition to forcing some smokers further into poverty, it will encourage illicit trade which puts smokers at even greater risk from counterfeit tobacco."

"The Chancellor had an opportunity to stand up for consumers who are willing to pay their fair share of tax but object to being punished for a habit that already earns the Treasury over £10 billion a year. Sadly he flunked it."

Budget 2020: cost of cigarettes to go up to £12.73 a pack from 6pm tonight as Chancellor hikes tobacco tax (The Sun).

Update: It turns out ASH wanted an inflation plus 15 per cent tax increase on hand-rolled tobacco. And they have the cheek to complain about smoking pushing more people into poverty.

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