The Irish General Election 2020 is in full swing with voting taking place on Saturday, February 8.
Ipsos MRBI and the Irish Times have run focus groups from which the news for the sitting Fine Gael government is grim. It appears that ‘undecided voters are overwhelmingly in favour of change but many are struggling to decide which party represents the type of change they want to see.’ Fine Gael has fallen behind Fianna Fáil and, surprisingly, behind Sinn Fein as well.
It has long been Sinn Fein’s strategy to be the first and largest All-Ireland party and to be in government in both jurisdictions (North and South). In doing so, they would then be poised to agitate for a United Ireland, their burning ambition. In contrast the two main parties just want power, ideally governing on their own. But the numbers don't add up. We have had coalition governments for years as the cautious electorate doesn’t trust one party to govern well.
From all I have read and heard, lifestyle issues are way down the priority list in the current campaign. Alcohol, smoking and nicotine consumption rarely make it into the debate when the serious work of getting elected is being discussed. However, these same issues are inevitably addressed as soon as a new government is in situ. This is the often-used method of presenting a closed case in the Dail echo chamber to introduce legislation to ban or increase prices on lifestyle products with any opposition simply ignored.
For example, the 2004 smoking ban was not even raised as a possibility in the election prior to it. Michael Martin, health minister in a previous Fianna Fáil government before he became leader of the party, was smart enough to know that it would have been an unpopular move had it been put to the people at that point. In fact Taoiseach Bertie Ahern was against the smoking ban and decidedly uncomfortable when asked about it.
Many have forgotten too that the Gardai went so far as to refuse to police the ban, and they never have. But once it was introduced as legislation then Martin was able to say, "I'm sorry, it's the law now." Voters may also remember that it was the same Michael Martin who as health minister abolished the health boards and set up the Health Service Executive (HSE). Ironically the sorry state of the HSE has been among the top three election issues in every election ever since yet Martin is still lauded for introducing the smoking ban.
The Greens in power brought you the plastic bag tax in coalition with Fianna Fáil and the sugar tax was brought to you by Fine Gael in 2018. Alcohol Action Ireland is funded by government to lobby government to increase alcohol taxes and does so relentlessly. Other charities are similarly funded through the HSE to lobby government to increase tobacco prices on an ongoing basis.
Individual politicians also jumped on board, with Fine Gael’s Catherine Noone rowing in behind policies such as plain packaging (and winning Forest’s Nanny of the Year award in the process). Roisin Shorthall, an Irish Social Democrat, went on her own anti-alcohol crusade, while former Fine Gael health minister James Reilly - already credited with introducing plain packaging - went so far as to propose extending the smoking ban to the outdoors at all al-fresco dining areas. Happily his political career is dead in the water.
When smokers are expected to pay €12+ for a pack of cigarettes you can see why it would attract the smuggler. Our Customs and Excise boys and girls recently reported that seizures of illicit tobacco are down by 75 per cent, though they blame this on smarter smuggling methods. The same Customs people are beginning to discover illicit alcohol coming in too. Politicians though are in denial about the connection between high prices for both tobacco and alcohol in Ireland and such criminal activities. If ever there was a case to be made for actual causation then it is high prices locally coupled with criminal activity to take over the supply of the product to the market.
Sadly, regardless of who gets in to power, you can expect the attacks on alcohol and tobacco to continue much as before, though I predict that the blunt tool of increased excise duties will result in less revenue as the illegal products continue to flood in. But I also predict that the holier-than-thou vaping community will come under increasing attack in the coming years. Expect to see bans on flavours as well as price increases, restrictions on the use of e-cigarettes in public areas, and a general damning of vaping as socially unacceptable.
Those who have quit smoking by using e-cigarettes need to understand how our political parties intend to treat them if elected. The couple of hundred thousand vapors are also adults who have the vote and there are a further million smokers who may be considering switching to e-cigs at a point in the future who will vote also. Fianna Fail, for example, has suggested banning what they describe as “child focussed flavours” by which they mean all flavours. The party has also stated that it intends to remove vaping entirely as part of their smoke free Ireland targets, so Michael Martin's party clearly sees banning all vaping products as their end game. Will you vote for them?
Fine Gael’s manifesto proposes a “licensing system for the retail sale of nicotine-inhaling products” and a “ban on advertising on public transport and in cinemas”, while also making it known that they too wish to discourage vaping through targeted taxation. So they will hide e-cigs from view, penalise resellers with a license fee and further penalise the users with progressive price rises. Will you vote for them?
The Green party boasts that it intends to introduce “comprehensive e-cigarette legislation covering advertising and flavouring” so a vaper voting for any of these parties is like a turkey voting for Christmas. All three would like to punish you for using a harm reduction product in your efforts to quit smoking. In short, think clearly before committing your first preferences.
John Mallon is spokesman for Forest Ireland