On Monday, ahead of today's Budget, I revealed the result of a new Populus poll commissioned by Forest.
According to the survey of 2000 adults, 38 per cent think tobacco duty is "too high", 31 per cent think it's "about right", and only 24 per cent think it's "too low".
It remains to be seen whether the Chancellor will take public opinion into account but it's clear there is little support for the tobacco control policy of a further tax increase.
Other poll findings:
- Only 18 per cent of the public believe that tackling smoking is a very important priority for the NHS. Smoking came second bottom out of a list of ten priorities.
- Asked to rate priorities for the NHS, respondents said investing in new doctors and nurses was the highest priority. Other issues that rated more important than tackling smoking included investing in new hospitals and infrastructure, addressing care for the elderly, addressing response times at Accident and Emergency, and addressing mental health services
- Only 14 per cent of the public believe that tackling smoking is a very important priority for local government. The issue also came second bottom in a list of ten priorities for local government.
- Asked to rate priorities for local government, respondents rated tackling crime and anti-social behaviour as the highest priority. Other issues that were rated more important than tackling smoking included investing in road and pavements, improving job prospects, investing in street cleanliness, and improving facilities for young people.
A result that particularly interested me was:
- 61 per cent of the public believe it is very important that the government commissions an independent review of the impact of forthcoming tobacco control measures, including the EU’s Tobacco Products Directive and standardised packaging, before proceeding with further measures to control the sale and consumption of tobacco.
For years Forest has been calling for an independent review of the impact of the smoking ban, taking into account the effect on all stakeholders. The last Labour government promised a review (of sorts) in 2010 but after it was elected the Coalition Government quietly dropped the idea.
Since then we've asked for an independent impact assessment report on the display ban, arguing that it's pointless pressing ahead with further tobacco control measures without understanding the impact, if any, of previous measures.
The public, it seems, agrees with us but that's not how tobacco control and its allies in government work. They're content to blunder on, regardless of the impact on consumers, small businesses etc.
Another question we were interested in finding out the answer to concerned the public's attitude to the funding of stop smoking services.
According to recent research, the numbers using stop smoking services in England and Wales has dropped by 51 per cent since 2010/11. The rise of e-cigarettes is presumably a significant factor in this and if the trend continues it makes very little sense for local government to fund services that relatively few people are using.
Despite this, tobacco control wants to increase the cost of tobacco again to fund smoking cessation services that fewer and fewer people are using. With e-cigarettes replacing more traditional and less successful quit smoking aids, why would you do that unless your real goal has less to do with public health and more to do with protecting your mates in the smoking cessation industry?
Anyway, informed that the numbers using stop smoking services have declined dramatically, 66 per cent of the public agreed there should a review of the way smoking cessation services are funded.
If that was to happen the days of the taxpayer funding smoking cessation services could be numbered.
Anyway, here's my foreword to Tobacco Control: Taxing the Public's Patience, which we also published on Monday:*
The tobacco control industry often claims it has the support of the public for whatever measure it wants government to adopt in the long-running war on tobacco.
A new national poll exposes this conceit. Conducted by Populus for Forest, it found that fewer than one in five adults (18 per cent) believe that tackling smoking is a very important priority for the National Health Service, while only 14 per cent consider it a very important priority for local government. In each category tackling smoking came ninth out of a list of ten priorities. This replicates a similar result from a June 2015 poll by Populus that found that tackling smoking was considered to be the lowest in a list of priorities for the NHS, behind even obesity and alcohol issues
Ignoring the punitive level of duty that smokers already pay on tobacco products, Action on Smoking and Health (ASH) is lobbying the UK Government to increase the tobacco duty escalator from two per cent above inflation to five per cent above inflation. According to Populus however only 24 per cent of the public think the tax on tobacco is too low; 38 per cent think it’s too high, while 31 per cent think it’s about right.
One reason ASH wants the Government to raise more money from tobacco is to fund stop smoking services. New research however shows that the numbers using stop smoking services in England have plummeted by 51 per cent since 2010/11. Is it any wonder that 66 per cent of people polled want a review of the way stop smoking services are funded? It would be economic madness to pour even more money into services a declining number of people are using.
Forest has repeatedly urged the Government to assess the impact of tobacco control measures on ALL stakeholders, including consumers. It is significant then that Populus also found that 61 per cent of the public think it is very important that the Government commissions an independent review of the impact of forthcoming tobacco control measures before proceeding with further measures to control the sale and consumption of tobacco.
I hope that ministers, including the Chancellor, will read this briefing paper and take note.