Between now and the General Election on May 7 I am highlighting a number of 'target seats', those where the candidate standing for re-election has supported anti-tobacco policies, and those where a leading candidate is an opponent of excessive lifestyle regulations and policies that infantilise us all. With a handful of exceptions I'm focussing on marginal or semi-marginal seats.
#15 - Battersea
Earlier this week I drafted but didn't publish an entry on public health minister Jane Ellison. 'Ellison,' I wrote, 'will be remembered as the junior minister who presided over the introduction of plain packaging. As a humble backbencher she also voted against an amendment to the smoking ban. It's possible she could lose Battersea to Labour but the Lib Dem vote would have to collapse and move en masse to Labour. Alternatively, voters who disapprove of excessive regulations like plain packs and the smoking ban may wish to consider their options very carefully.' Well, I may have misjudged the outcome of this seat and been overly cautious because the Spectator today published this little morsel: Plain pack nanny stater having some trouble in Battersea. It's too early to celebrate but I can feel the champagne corks popping already!
2010 majority: 5,977 (12.2%)
Estimated number of smokers in Battersea: 14,456*
Principal opponent: Labour
Friend or foe: Foe
Target rating: Better than anticipated!
*Based on 20% of the registered electorate in 2010
Note: marginal seats have been defined as those with majorities of 10% or less that require a swing of 5% for the incumbent party to lose.