I've been asked what's happening on plain packaging. Good question.
As you know, the Chantler Review was published on April 3. Commissioned by the Government in November 2013 – at the instigation, we believe, of Number Ten – it duly recommended the introduction of standardised packaging even though the 'evidence' was less than robust.
The same day public health minister Jane Ellison gave an oral statement to the House of Commons that included this passage:
In light of this report and the responses to the previous consultation in 2012 I am ... currently minded to proceed with introducing regulations to provide for standardised packaging.
However, before reaching a final decision and in order to ensure that that decision is properly and fully informed, I intend to publish the draft regulations, so that it is crystal clear what is intended, alongside a final, short consultation, in which I will ask, in particular, for views on anything new since the last full public consultation that is relevant to a final decision on this policy.
I will announce the details about the content and timing of that very shortly but would invite those with an interest to start considering any responses they might wish to make now. The House will understand that I want to move forward as swiftly as possible.
Since then there has been lots of speculation but no formal announcement about regulations or consultation. It's clear that drafting regulations on standardised packaging is proving a whole lot harder than officials anticipated.
Two weeks ago, in an effort to chivvy or even bully the Government to do their bidding, Labour's Alex Cunningham demanded of the prime minister:
When will the prime minister publish the regulations to introduce standardised packaging for tobacco products and ban smoking in cars when children are present?
Cameron's response:
I cannot pre-judge the Queen's Speech but we have said that we want to take action on this front and we will.
Interpret that how you like (and many have), that's how things stand right now.
Draft regulations are being prepared. When they're published (date unknown) there will be a short (six-week) consultation.
In the meantime standardised packaging may, or may not, be in the Queen's Speech on June 4.
If it is it will be entirely cosmetic because the legislation already exists. It just has to be enabled and that will depend on several factors including the outcome of the consultation and a number of political considerations, not least opposition from Conservative MPs and the general public in the run up to the General Election.
None of these factors should be sniffed at, which is why we are quietly confident plain packaging is not yet the done deal some people seem to think it is.
If you are in any doubt I strongly recommend you read Brian Monteith's article on plain packaging, published by Conservative Home last week.
The Government has got itself in to an almighty mess, wrote the former Forest spokesman and MSP who now edits our Free Society website:
Last year, out of the blue, David Cameron surprised even the Department of Health by announcing a new review of the evidence on plain packaging. Many Conservative supporters were stunned. There was no public demand for it. The public had already made their views known through their responses to the consultation: over 425,000 people had opposed plain packaging, 238,000 were in favour – a resounding majority against. Why would the Government ignore the result of its own consultation?
The Prime Minister’s decision to reignite the debate was strategic. The Government had been outsmarted by Labour in the Lords, when the Opposition threatened to add an enabling amendment on plain packaging to the unrelated Children and Families Bill. In Scotland, meanwhile, the SNP Government was threatening to go it alone on plain packaging. In an attempt to reassert its authority in Westminster and the country as a whole, Cameron responded by effectively adopting Labour/SNP policy.
Having highlighted serious problems with the Chantler Review – the publication of which prompted the Government to announce it "is minded" to introduce plain packaging – Monteith noted this "time bomb":
Later this year the World Trade Organisation will consider whether the Australian plain packaging law is contrary to international agreements that would force it to be withdrawn or cost huge amounts of compensation. Imagine the egg on the face of the Prime Minister if he presses ahead with a policy that is rejected by the WTO in the run up to the general election.
Having further noted the lack of support for plain packaging among grassroots Conservatives – a point supported by many of the comments on Conservative Home – he concluded:
Standardised packaging of tobacco is an idea that was neither conceived in Conservative Party gatherings nor demanded by ordinary Conservative voters. It’s a classic example of a government – or, more accurately, a section of government – that has been captured by its officials, agencies and quangos, not to mention the campaign groups that it funds to lobby it to introduce more legislation. That this has happened should come as no surprise because the Department of Health has been funding groups to campaign for more government intervention since the Blair years. It is exactly the sort of abomination Conservatives should be dismantling rather than falling victim to.
If the Prime Minister truly believes in Conservative values, including strong government, he must reject Labour’s attempt to bully him into submission on plain packaging. Common sense alone suggests it would be irresponsible for any government to rush to regulation on such a controversial issue. Before it enforces legislation, the Government must wait and assess the longer-term impact of plain packs Down Under. At the very least, it should wait for the WTO to pass judgement on Australia’s plain packaging law.
The threat of more nanny state legislation coming from this government could easily contribute to a Conservative defeat in 2015. Conservatives cannot defeat Labour by adopting Labour policies. Instead of backing the party, people stay at home, or find new parties to vote for. Standing firm against plain packaging would signal Cameron’s intention to put clear blue water between the parties at the general election. It’s an opportunity he must grasp with both hands.
See: How Ministers got tangled up over tobacco packaging (Conservative Home)
See also: Government keeps tight-lipped about plain packaging delay (Convenience Store)