Today is the second anniversary of the introduction of plain packaging in Australia.
So what's the verdict?
Plain packaging isn't working says Forest
Campaigners have urged the Government to abandon plans to introduce plain packaging of tobacco.
The smokers’ group Forest which runs the Hands Off Our Packs campaign says the UK must learn from Australia where standardised packaging was introduced on 1st December 2012.
New evidence, says Forest, suggests plain packaging will not reduce the number of teenagers who smoke.
Instead of declining since the introduction of plain packaging, youth smoking rates have gone up. According to the Australian Institute for Health and Welfare, youth smoking rates have increased by 36% in the period 2010-2013.
Plain packaging has had no impact on adults either. Monthly figures for the adult (18+) smoking rate are consistent with the long-term decline of smoking in Australia. Far from accelerating that decline, says Forest, the trend for the year 2013 shows a 1.8% annual increase. (Figures courtesy Roy Morgan Research, Australia's longest-established market research company with a strong reputation for reliability and accuracy.)
Plain packaging, says Forest, is also fuelling the black market. In Australia in 2012 illicit tobacco stood at 11.5% of tobacco consumption. By mid-2014 it reached an unprecedented 14.3% share of the market, an increase of nearly 25% (KPMG, Illicit tobacco in Australia, 2014 Half Year Report, October 2014).
Simon Clark, director of Forest, said: "Plain packaging hasn’t worked. Youth smoking rates in Australia have gone up since it was introduced and illicit trade has soared. If alarm bells aren’t ringing in Westminster they should be.
"Standardised packaging would be a huge risk with no beneficial effect. We urge the Government to learn from Australia’s experience and abandon this ill-conceived and potentially costly measure."
Note: Official Australian Government figures from the National Drugs Strategy Household Survey show the number of 12-17 year olds smoking every day has increased from 2.5 out of 100 (2010) to 3.4 out of 100 (2013). Plain packaging was introduced on 1st December 2012.
Are you listening, Prime Minister?
PS. According to tobacco control plain packaging has been a "resounding success":
Cancer Research UK said the country’s experiment with unbranded packaging had led to falling smoking rates without creating an illegal black market.
Sarah Woolnough, the charity’s executive director of policy and information, said: "This is an anniversary worth celebrating. Australia took the lead on this issue and two years later they’re reaping the rewards.
"Smoking rates have fallen, more people than ever support standard packs and scare stories about flooding the market with cheap, illegal tobacco have failed to materialise. It’s been a resounding success in Australia and we’re confident the same can happen here.
"Research has shown that removing the colourful designs of tobacco packs reduces the appeal of smoking to children. This measure will help cut the number of people killed by smoking and we’re urging the UK government to take the next steps as soon as possible."
Needless to say one news agency saw fit to issue a report based on CRUK's comments without a single balancing fact or opinion - hence this report in the Yorkshire Post (Charity calls for plain cigarette packaging in UK ‘without delay’) and similar reports in the Irish Examiner, Herald and Metro.
Most media, including the Press Association, have ignored the story.