Simon Clark - Taking Liberties

Well, that was weird.

At 14.05 yesterday BBC News published a report entitled Plain cigarette packs 'encourage smokers to quit'.

It 'revealed' that:

Selling cigarettes in unbranded packs seems to make tobacco less appealing and encourages smokers to quit, suggests a study ...

The findings come days after ministers were criticised for putting on hold a plan to impose plain packs in England.

There were quotes from Cancer Research UK and the British Heart Foundation but nothing from 'our' side.

An hour or two later, in response to a tweet by BBC News linking to its own report, Forest tweeted:

@BBC News Another biased, one-sided report. Where's the evidence that youth smoking rates or even consumption have fallen?

It appears that someone at the BBC read it because this morning I was invited to submit a comment. I wrote:

"The study offers no credible evidence to suggest that plain packaging will reduce youth smoking rates or have any impact on adult consumption.

"The research, which was carried out in November 2012, before plain packaging was introduced, is based on highly subjective responses to questions about the perceived quality of cigarettes and the satisfaction consumers derive from smoking cigarettes sold in standard packs.

"There is no evidence that the sale or consumption of cigarettes has fallen in Australia since plain packs were introduced in December.

"So far the policy has made no difference to sales and no amount of spin or bluster can disguise that fact."

You can read the report ("Last updated at 14:05" yesterday) here.

Update: Chris Snowdon has this to say, That plain packaging study.

Update on Tuesday, July 23, 2013 at 12:52 by

Simon Clark

No surprises for guessing who was among the first to welcome the study (above).

That's right, Ireland's Minister for Health, Dr James Reilly.

"Given all we know about the dangers of smoking, it is not acceptable to allow the tobacco industry to use deceptive marketing gimmicks to lure our children into this deadly addiction and to deceive current smokers about the impact of their addiction ...

“This study provides further evidence that plain pack cigarettes are the next step forward in tackling this addiction.

Really?

The study found that, when consuming cigarettes from standard packs, smokers are 66 per cent more likely to think their cigarettes are of poorer quality, they are 70% more likely to say they found them less satisfying, and they are 81 per cent more likely to have thought about quitting at least once a day and rate quitting as a higher priority in their lives.

In that case, why haven't the sale or consumption of cigarettes in Australia fallen since the introduction of plain packs in December?

Note: the UK and Irish media would have us believe this latest study is new. Actually, it was conducted in November 2012, when branded packs were still available and consumers still had the opportunity to compare the two.

Now they have got used to them, consumers Down Under don't seem to care two hoots.

My colleague in Ireland, John Mallon, has issued this statement:

The study that Mr Reilly refers to was conducted in November 2012 when branded packs were still on sale in Australia.

Researchers asked 536 smokers to respond subjectively to questions about their perceptions concerning the quality of cigarettes and the satisfaction they derive from smoking cigarettes that are sold in standard packs.

What the study emphatically does not do is demonstrate that plain packaging changed their behaviour after plain packaging was introduced the following month.

Indeed there is not a shred of credible evidence to suggest that plain packaging has reduced youth smoking rates or had any impact on adult consumption in Australia.

To date the policy has made no difference and no amount of spin or bluster by Minister Reilly can disguise that fact.

Update: Click here for an interesting post by "Australia's leading libertarian and centre-right blog".

I suspect there's not a great deal of competition in that field but it's well worth reading all the same.