Extraordinary.
Speaking to the House of Commons Science and Technology Select Committee today, Chief Medical Officer Professor Dame Sally Davies told MPs that early indications from Australia suggest that plain packaging of cigarettes has been effective in reducing consumption.
Excuse me?!
Australia's plain packaging law was enforced at the beginning of December. How the CMO can deduce, a few short weeks later, that the policy is working is beyond me. These things normally take years to bear fruit, if indeed they ever do.
I'd love to see the evidence and how it can be linked directly to plain packaging. It is of course possible that consumption has fallen in Australia these past few weeks (I haven't seen any figures) but, if true, it's quite likely to be a seasonal blip (all those New Year resolutions).
I accept, by the way, that measures such as plain packaging or graphic health warnings may have some initial impact, but the long-term effect is unclear. (With regard to plain packaging, of course, it's totally unproven).
Meanwhile who knows how many smokers – in response to plain packaging – are buying their cigarettes on the black market?
In any case, official consumption figures will always vary slightly from month to month. Before making any statement about the effectiveness of plain packaging, the CMO should show MPs the figures at least a year – probably more – either side of its introduction.
Then again they would also need information about other factors that might affect consumption – a rise in price, for example.
Remarkably, despite this transparent attempt to persuade MPs that plain packaging is linked to a reduction in smoking rates, the CMO also told MPs (with a straight face, apparently) that while she had a personal view on plain packaging, if she expressed it she might prejudice the Government’s consultation!
You couldn't make it up.
PS. One Australian newspaper reported a rather different outcome to plain packaging. Tobacconist claims plain packaging laws aren't working is anecdotal but no more prejudicial to the UK consultation than the CMO's comment.
Curiously she didn't mention it.
Update: According to the CMO, early indications that plain packaging had impacted on the purchase of cigarettes came from the Permanent Secretary of the Department of Health in Australia.
Would that be the same Department of Health that wrote to the Department of Health in London requesting an extension to the consultation on plain packaging?